Angelalign Technology (6699 HK): Pricey Valuation Is Clouding the Upside Potential

China’s largest domestic dental brace manufacturer, Angelalign Technology (6699 HK) shares surged to HKD 490 within one month from their issue price of HKD 173 (debuted in HKEX in June). Since then, shares are facing tough time and corrected more than 30%. In-line H1 results, lack of any near-term catalyst, and stagnant market share are looming on the share price. Shares are trading at a P/E of 76x 2023E EPS, which is higher than its nearest competitor Align Technology’s 36x. Although clear aligner market in China is huge and underpenetrated, we believe players have no pricing power as products offered have little or no differentiation and competition is rising. We expect Angelalign’s EPS will have a CAGR of 30% during 2020–2023, slower than 58% CAGR reported during 2018–2020, dragged by margin contraction due to faster growth in Lower ASP product line (Comfos) at the cost of higher ASP product line (Angelalign Pro) and introduction of lower margin scanner business. This does not justify the superior valuation. Angelalign needs to penetrate deeper in lower tiered cities and pursue its outside China initiatives to justify its premium valuation.