FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

The Chinese trade and industrial activity data are consistent with weaker steel sector assets and commodity prices and this may contribute to further medium term weakness in the AUD.&nbsp; However, the Australian employment data represents a short term upside risk for the currency with recent activity indicators solid and scope for this data to significantly surprise on the topside.

The Chinese trade and industrial activity data are consistent with weaker steel sector assets and commodity prices and this may contribute to further medium term weakness in the AUD.&nbsp; However, the Australian employment data represents a short term upside risk for the currency with recent activity indicators solid and scope for this data to significantly surprise on the topside.

AmpGFX - Australian employment data present upside risk for the AUD

The US labour data were strong enough along with faster wage growth to generate discussion of rate hikes beyond the now very probable December hike.&nbsp; This has pushed two-year US rates to a new cyclical high, widening the USD yield advantage in particular against the EUR and JPY to new cyclical wides.&nbsp; The US economy is showing resilience to weaker emerging markets and a weaker energy sector and should continue to support the USD into next year.&nbsp; The Chinese trade data continues to show pressures on external and internal demand.&nbsp; Iron ore import volume was weaker and combined with a steady decline in Chinese steel prices and production, point to a weaker outlook for the AUD.&nbsp; The RBA has downgraded its view on China in recent months acknowledging that heavy industrial sectors may be weaker than the official industrial production data suggest, and worrying that Chinese government efforts to support fixed asset investment in the last year have failed to arrest the decline.&nbsp; The Australian employment and Chinese activity data will be key for near term direction in the AUD.

The US labour data were strong enough along with faster wage growth to generate discussion of rate hikes beyond the now very probable December hike.&nbsp; This has pushed two-year US rates to a new cyclical high, widening the USD yield advantage in particular against the EUR and JPY to new cyclical wides.&nbsp; The US economy is showing resilience to weaker emerging markets and a weaker energy sector and should continue to support the USD into next year.&nbsp; The Chinese trade data continues to show pressures on external and internal demand.&nbsp; Iron ore import volume was weaker and combined with a steady decline in Chinese steel prices and production, point to a weaker outlook for the AUD.&nbsp; The RBA has downgraded its view on China in recent months acknowledging that heavy industrial sectors may be weaker than the official industrial production data suggest, and worrying that Chinese government efforts to support fixed asset investment in the last year have failed to arrest the decline.&nbsp; The Australian employment and Chinese activity data will be key for near term direction in the AUD.

AmpGFX - RBA more nervous over China outlook

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>RBA communications dominated financial market developments in Australia over the past week.&nbsp; Mr Glenn Stevens gave the clearest indication that the RBA has adopted an easing bias, flagging that 'were a change to monetary policy to be required in the near term, it would almost certainly be an easing, not a tightening.' </li><li>Mr Stevens also suggests that concerns around the employment consequences of rising automation are overblown. The rise of the robots and the changing dynamic of our leisure time will give rise to occupations in the future that are unimaginable today.</li><li>Evidente discusses the risks that the few stocks offering strong growth prospects &ndash; including Domino&rsquo;s Pizza - become over-priced in an environment where the aggregate supply of growth is low.</li></ul>

RBA communications dominated financial market developments in Australia over the past week.&nbsp; Mr Glenn Stevens gave the clearest indication that the RBA has adopted an easing bias, flagging that 'were a change to monetary policy to be required in the near term, it would almost certainly be an easing, not a tightening.' Mr Stevens also suggests that concerns around the employment consequences of rising automation are overblown. The rise of the robots and the changing dynamic of our leisure time will give rise to occupations in the future that are unimaginable today.Evidente discusses the risks that the few stocks offering strong growth prospects &ndash; including Domino&rsquo;s Pizza - become over-priced in an environment where the aggregate supply of growth is low.

The surprise overnight was that the BoE suggested a weaker outlook for its trading partners&rsquo; growth is likely to delay its rate hikes until 2017, and it may implement macro-prudential measures to help sustain lower rates; clearly negative for the GBP and it has reacted.&nbsp; The news may have also weighed on the USD to some extent, suggesting that the Fed should also move cautiously on its plans to hike. A hike now seem quite likely in December, provided the data and global financial conditions are reasonably stable.&nbsp; Needless to say the payrolls report in the US may set the tone for the USD. German factory orders were weak with the intensifying scandal at VW potentially a contributing factor. This should keep the ECB on track to ease policy in December.&nbsp; The RBA Statement on Monetary Policy significantly lowered its inflation outlook over the next year.&nbsp;&nbsp; Its growth outlook was little changed with weaker trading partner growth offset by a firmer outlook for non-resource sectors.&nbsp; This view relies on the AUD remaining low and suggests that the RBA would be more comfortable if the currency fell than rose; especially in light of recent falls in commodity prices. And might use its easing bias if the AUD were to rise much.

The surprise overnight was that the BoE suggested a weaker outlook for its trading partners&rsquo; growth is likely to delay its rate hikes until 2017, and it may implement macro-prudential measures to help sustain lower rates; clearly negative for the GBP and it has reacted.&nbsp; The news may have also weighed on the USD to some extent, suggesting that the Fed should also move cautiously on its plans to hike. A hike now seem quite likely in December, provided the data and global financial conditions are reasonably stable.&nbsp; Needless to say the payrolls report in the US may set the tone for the USD. German factory orders were weak with the intensifying scandal at VW potentially a contributing factor. This should keep the ECB on track to ease policy in December.&nbsp; The RBA Statement on Monetary Policy significantly lowered its inflation outlook over the next year.&nbsp;&nbsp; Its growth outlook was little changed with weaker trading partner growth offset by a firmer outlook for non-resource sectors.&nbsp; This view relies on the AUD remaining low and suggests that the RBA would be more comfortable if the currency fell than rose; especially in light of recent falls in commodity prices. And might use its easing bias if the AUD were to rise much.

AmpGFX - Low AUD crucial for RBA game-plan

Australia

AMP Capital China Growth Fund is an investment entity incorporated in Australia. The Fund aims to provide long-term capital growth and to outperform the S&P/CITIC 300 Index. The Fund invests in China A shares listed on China's Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges. China A shares are not readily available to Australian investors, and provide exposure to the growing Chinese economy.

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Amp Capital China Growth Fd (AGF AU)

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - Australian employment data present upside risk for the AUD

The Chinese trade and industrial activity data are consistent with weaker steel sector assets and commodity prices and this may contribute to...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - RBA more nervous over China outlook

The US labour data were strong enough along with faster wage growth to generate discussion of rate hikes beyond the now very probable December...

Greg Gibbs

Weekly Impressions

RBA communications dominated financial market developments in Australia over the past week. Mr Glenn Stevens gave the clearest indication that...

Sam Ferraro

AmpGFX - Low AUD crucial for RBA game-plan

The surprise overnight was that the BoE suggested a weaker outlook for its trading partners’ growth is likely to delay its rate hikes until 2017,...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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