Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Drawing on the burgeoning field of behavioural finance, this post investigates the behavioural trap of over-confidence and suggests ways in which portfolio managers can reduce the prevalence and costs associated with over-confidence. </li><li>Researchers have explored the effects of over-confidence in financial market settings and discovered that over-confidence hurts portfolio performance.  Over-confident individuals tend to trade more on their signals and incur higher trading costs.  Indeed, female portfolio managers have been found to have superior track records than their male counterparts thanks to lower churning of their portfolios because they are less prone to suffering from over-confidence. </li><li>The literature on over-confidence in financial markets suggests that PMs ought to be more humble and trade less. Even when investors believe that they have access to superior information, they should be cognisant of the limits and costs to arbitrage, which can cause mispricing to persist for an extended time.  Heads of equities should encourage a collaborative and collegiate team environment, while PMs should document their views rigorously in real time, to ensure that over-confidence does not also morph into hindsight bias.</li></ul>

Drawing on the burgeoning field of behavioural finance, this post investigates the behavioural trap of over-confidence and suggests ways in which portfolio managers can reduce the prevalence and costs associated with over-confidence. Researchers have explored the effects of over-confidence in financial market settings and discovered that over-confidence hurts portfolio performance.  Over-confident individuals tend to trade more on their signals and incur higher trading costs.  Indeed, female portfolio managers have been found to have superior track records than their male counterparts thanks to lower churning of their portfolios because they are less prone to suffering from over-confidence. The literature on over-confidence in financial markets suggests that PMs ought to be more humble and trade less. Even when investors believe that they have access to superior information, they should be cognisant of the limits and costs to arbitrage, which can cause mispricing to persist for an extended time.  Heads of equities should encourage a collaborative and collegiate team environment, while PMs should document their views rigorously in real time, to ensure that over-confidence does not also morph into hindsight bias.

Behavioural Traps for Active Funds: In Praise of Humbleness

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed today that Australia's labour market remains firmly stuck in a wage recession.  The private sector Wage Price Index - which represents hourly pay rates excluding bonuses - rose by 0.5% in the September quarter to be 2.1% higher than a year earlier, the lowest annual growth since the inception of the series in the late 1990s (see chart).  Annual growth has trended down from 4% in 2011, which coincided with the peak in global commodity prices.</li>
<li>Despite…</li>
</ul>


The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed today that Australia's labour market remains firmly stuck in a wage recession.  The private sector Wage Price Index - which represents hourly pay rates excluding bonuses - rose by 0.5% in the September quarter to be 2.1% higher than a year earlier, the lowest annual growth since the inception of the series in the late 1990s (see chart).  Annual growth has trended down from 4% in 2011, which coincided with the peak in global commodity prices.
Despite…


No End in Sight to Australia's Wage Recession

<div>In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.</div><ul>
<li>Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).</li>
<li>Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.</li>
<li>The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…</li>
</ul>

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.
Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).
Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.
The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>US Equities recovered and the USD is generally firmer.&nbsp; However, US retail sector equities recovered less than half of their sharp loss on Friday, and question-marks must remain over the strength of USA retail sales.&nbsp; US rates are still off their peak on Wednesday&nbsp;last week.&nbsp; EUR is weaker as prospects for ECB easing build, probably enhanced by the terrible events in Paris last week. As such, we continue to see downside risk for EUR/JPY.&nbsp; Copper prices fell sharply to new lows since 2009, iron ore prices are scrapping the lows since July again, while Chinese steel prices continue a gradual slide.&nbsp;&nbsp; The market is not paying enough heed to the downside risk to Australian growth.</em></p>

US Equities recovered and the USD is generally firmer.&nbsp; However, US retail sector equities recovered less than half of their sharp loss on Friday, and question-marks must remain over the strength of USA retail sales.&nbsp; US rates are still off their peak on Wednesday&nbsp;last week.&nbsp; EUR is weaker as prospects for ECB easing build, probably enhanced by the terrible events in Paris last week. As such, we continue to see downside risk for EUR/JPY.&nbsp; Copper prices fell sharply to new lows since 2009, iron ore prices are scrapping the lows since July again, while Chinese steel prices continue a gradual slide.&nbsp;&nbsp; The market is not paying enough heed to the downside risk to Australian growth.

AmpGFX - Dr Copper Prognosis Is Negative

<p><em>Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday.&nbsp; In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from senior Fed members suggest the policy divergence is likely to intensify next month.&nbsp; Eurozone industrial production showed a flat trend in recent quarters and US labour data were firm.&nbsp; Eurozone GDP and US retail sales today in focus. A comparison of CAD and AUD reveal much in common, we see downside pressure persisting for both.&nbsp; Weaker oil prices an immediate threat for CAD.&nbsp; Bank of Canada speech tonight in focus.&nbsp; Australian RBA minutes and wage data next week pose downside risk for the AUD.</em></p>

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday.&nbsp; In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from senior Fed members suggest the policy divergence is likely to intensify next month.&nbsp; Eurozone industrial production showed a flat trend in recent quarters and US labour data were firm.&nbsp; Eurozone GDP and US retail sales today in focus. A comparison of CAD and AUD reveal much in common, we see downside pressure persisting for both.&nbsp; Weaker oil prices an immediate threat for CAD.&nbsp; Bank of Canada speech tonight in focus.&nbsp; Australian RBA minutes and wage data next week pose downside risk for the AUD.

Australia

AMP Capital China Growth Fund is an investment entity incorporated in Australia. The Fund aims to provide long-term capital growth and to outperform the S&P/CITIC 300 Index. The Fund invests in China A shares listed on China's Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges. China A shares are not readily available to Australian investors, and provide exposure to the growing Chinese economy.

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Amp Capital China Growth Fd (AGF AU)

Behavioural Traps for Active Funds: In Praise of Humbleness

Drawing on the burgeoning field of behavioural finance, this post investigates the behavioural trap of over-confidence and suggests ways in...

Sam Ferraro

No End in Sight to Australia's Wage Recession

The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed today that Australia's labour market remains firmly stuck in a wage recession. The private sector...

Sam Ferraro

RBA Downbeat on Commodity Price Outlook

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further,...

Sam Ferraro

AmpGFX - Dr Copper Prognosis Is Negative

US Equities recovered and the USD is generally firmer. However, US retail sector equities recovered less than half of their sharp loss on Friday,...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - CAD and AUD in the hot-seat

Little changed to support the rebound in EUR and weakness in the USD on Thursday. In fact dovish ECB comments and on-message statements from...

Greg Gibbs

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