European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellnex-telecom-sau" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21258:1" rel="noopener">Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)</a> has closed a transformational operation, valued at around €10 bn, which has allowed it to reach over 103,000 telecommunications towers (vs. the prior 73,000) and strengthen its leadership position in Europe. The company has met its expansion objectives, even earlier than planned (December 2021). A capital increase has not been necessary, although it has run out of ammunition for future acquisitions.
It is difficult to overstate the importance of the purchase. It represents an earthquake in the European market for telecommunications towers, which now has a colossus, far away from any other potential European player.
<ul class="">
<li>Since its IPO in 2015, Cellnex has invested c. €26 bn in acquisitions.</li>
<li>After the pact, Cellnex's footprint extends to twelve countries. Spain (where Cellnex is based), with its 11,000 towers, is now only the fifth market in number of towers (and represents only 10% of the total footprint) behind Italy (24,500) , United Kingdom (14,700), France (13,700) and Poland (11,900).</li>
<li>This operation is unique due to its size and transformative nature: it involves raising the number of towers by 41%, revenue by 46% and backlog by up to 63%, long-term insured revenue.</li>
</ul>
A capital increase was not strictly necessary to purchase the Hutchison Towers. The company had cash available of more than €8 bn. However, the net debt/EBITDA approaches 6x and therefore Cellnex runs out of ammunition for future acquisitions. I do not rule out that Cellnex pays future purchases with its own shares.
Taking an average of DCF valuation and multiples, my TP is €64.36 per share, which implies an upside of 20% to the last closing price. Therefore my recommendation is LONG Cellnex.
<ul>
<li>The dividend yield is low because Cellnex is in an accelerated expansionary phase. However, the generation of recurring cash implies a profitability of more than 5% as of 2022e.</li>
</ul>

Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) has closed a transformational operation, valued at around €10 bn, which has allowed it to reach over 103,000 telecommunications towers (vs. the prior 73,000) and strengthen its leadership position in Europe. The company has met its expansion objectives, even earlier than planned (December 2021). A capital increase has not been necessary, although it has run out of ammunition for future acquisitions.
It is difficult to overstate the importance of the purchase. It represents an earthquake in the European market for telecommunications towers, which now has a colossus, far away from any other potential European player.

Since its IPO in 2015, Cellnex has invested c. €26 bn in acquisitions.
After the pact, Cellnex's footprint extends to twelve countries. Spain (where Cellnex is based), with its 11,000 towers, is now only the fifth market in number of towers (and represents only 10% of the total footprint) behind Italy (24,500) , United Kingdom (14,700), France (13,700) and Poland (11,900).
This operation is unique due to its size and transformative nature: it involves raising the number of towers by 41%, revenue by 46% and backlog by up to 63%, long-term insured revenue.

A capital increase was not strictly necessary to purchase the Hutchison Towers. The company had cash available of more than €8 bn. However, the net debt/EBITDA approaches 6x and therefore Cellnex runs out of ammunition for future acquisitions. I do not rule out that Cellnex pays future purchases with its own shares.
Taking an average of DCF valuation and multiples, my TP is €64.36 per share, which implies an upside of 20% to the last closing price. Therefore my recommendation is LONG Cellnex.

The dividend yield is low because Cellnex is in an accelerated expansionary phase. However, the generation of recurring cash implies a profitability of more than 5% as of 2022e.


Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/u-s-elections-and-esg-impacts-on-people-planet-and-profit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42655" rel="noopener">U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit</a>, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections from an ESG and Triple Bottom Line perspective, and using the three TBL pillars for structure: 1) Environmental, 2) Social and Governance, and 3) Economic. That report was a deep dive, but nonetheless largely stayed on the macro level.
This Insight is one of several regionally-focused reports analysing the U.S. elections – candidates, their policy positions, and implications of evolving election outcome scenarios – on a more micro plane. Specifically, implications for regional markets, sectors, and stocks based on the policies of the Democrat and Republican tickets in conjunction with Congressional election result scenarios.
Consider this the inaugural report for North America-focused coverage of the 2020 elections. It will be updated, and more importantly built upon, over the next two months (all elections are held on 3 November) as significant events unfold. This initial report lays the basic foundation for that future coverage. In particular, it addresses the following topics (which also approximate an outline):
<ul>
<li>Overview of major policy proposals or plans for U.S. and Canadian markets, sectors, and stocks</li>
<li>U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden climate and infrastructure plans</li>
<li>U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden corporate tax policies and hikes</li>
<li>High-level summary of the most consequential points addressed in the aforementioned Insight</li>
</ul>

In U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections from an ESG and Triple Bottom Line perspective, and using the three TBL pillars for structure: 1) Environmental, 2) Social and Governance, and 3) Economic. That report was a deep dive, but nonetheless largely stayed on the macro level.
This Insight is one of several regionally-focused reports analysing the U.S. elections – candidates, their policy positions, and implications of evolving election outcome scenarios – on a more micro plane. Specifically, implications for regional markets, sectors, and stocks based on the policies of the Democrat and Republican tickets in conjunction with Congressional election result scenarios.
Consider this the inaugural report for North America-focused coverage of the 2020 elections. It will be updated, and more importantly built upon, over the next two months (all elections are held on 3 November) as significant events unfold. This initial report lays the basic foundation for that future coverage. In particular, it addresses the following topics (which also approximate an outline):

Overview of major policy proposals or plans for U.S. and Canadian markets, sectors, and stocks
U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden climate and infrastructure plans
U.S. and Canadian sectors/stocks that benefit/lose from Biden corporate tax policies and hikes
High-level summary of the most consequential points addressed in the aforementioned Insight


U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit (North America)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

And just like that, the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy has paid off. Primarily responsible for new highs in these indexes is Technology (esp. software and semis/semi suppliers) and FAANG stocks. While these areas all remain bullish, we still have some reservations due to the massive disparity in performance between them and the Materials (XLB, XME) and Energy (RYE) Sectors, and also small-caps (IWM) which continue to hit new RS lows. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Homebuilding, Large-Cap, Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Asset Management &amp; Custody Banks, Large-Cap, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Small-Cap.

And just like that, the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy has paid off. Primarily responsible for new highs in these indexes is Technology (esp. software and semis/semi suppliers) and FAANG stocks. While these areas all remain bullish, we still have some reservations due to the massive disparity in performance between them and the Materials (XLB, XME) and Energy (RYE) Sectors, and also small-caps (IWM) which continue to hit new RS lows. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Homebuilding, Large-Cap, Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Asset Management &amp; Custody Banks, Large-Cap, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Small-Cap.

U.S. Equities: Still Bullish, With Reservations

Patryk Basiewicz

PGB Research

On 8 October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellnex-telecom-sau" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21258:1" rel="noopener">Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)</a> announced a major acquisition and also announced a rights issue with a dilution of c. 22.5% and proceeds of EUR2.5bn. Given that Cellnex has a varied capital structure, which includes bonds and convertibles, I am aware that clients are using complex strategies to profit from the situation.
These strategies require some comfort with Cellnex's fundamentals and quality of its business model. Below, I discuss Cellnex's fundamentals and provide evidence that indicates Cellnex is a very strong business. In fact, it is a unique investment proposition due to its strategy, competitive position and growth prospects. 
This insight can be also be seen as a Bottom-Up investment case for Cellnex.

On 8 October, Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) announced a major acquisition and also announced a rights issue with a dilution of c. 22.5% and proceeds of EUR2.5bn. Given that Cellnex has a varied capital structure, which includes bonds and convertibles, I am aware that clients are using complex strategies to profit from the situation.
These strategies require some comfort with Cellnex's fundamentals and quality of its business model. Below, I discuss Cellnex's fundamentals and provide evidence that indicates Cellnex is a very strong business. In fact, it is a unique investment proposition due to its strategy, competitive position and growth prospects. 
This insight can be also be seen as a Bottom-Up investment case for Cellnex.

Cellnex (CLNX SM): Fundamental Briefing for Those Trading the Current Rights Issue

United States

American Tower Corp. is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops wireless communications and broadcast towers in the United States. The Company leases antennae sites on multi-tenant towers for a diverse range of wireless communications industries, including personal communications services, paging, and cellular.

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American Tower (AMT US)

Cellnex's Transformational Acquisition

The purchase represents an earthquake in European telco towers. An average of DCF and multiples gives a TP of €64.36 per share, which implies an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit (North America)

In U.S. Elections and ESG: Impacts on People, Planet… and Profit, I discussed major universally-relevant implications of the 2020 U.S. elections...

Kyle Rudden

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Still Bullish, With Reservations

And just like that, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy...

Vermilion Research

Cellnex (CLNX SM): Fundamental Briefing for Those Trading the Current Rights Issue

On 8 October, Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) announced a major acquisition and also announced a rights issue with a dilution of c. 22.5% and...

Patryk Basiewicz

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