European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex by American Tower and Brookfield is reduced.</li>
<li>Cellnex on 14.7x EV/NTM EBITDAe is trading cheaply vs. AMT on 19.5x and below private equity deals at 25-30x. I believe that Cellnex's fundamentals are solid, and would be long.</li>
<li>Cellnex is the undisputed European leader in telecommunications towers with both high cash flow visibility (growth forecasted at 18% for the period 2021-2025e) and trading at 7.3% 22e FCF yield.</li>
</ul>


American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex by American Tower and Brookfield is reduced.
Cellnex on 14.7x EV/NTM EBITDAe is trading cheaply vs. AMT on 19.5x and below private equity deals at 25-30x. I believe that Cellnex's fundamentals are solid, and would be long.
Cellnex is the undisputed European leader in telecommunications towers with both high cash flow visibility (growth forecasted at 18% for the period 2021-2025e) and trading at 7.3% 22e FCF yield.


<ul>
<li>Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the intention of delisting the business.</li>
<li>Cellnex on 16.9x EV/22e EBITDA is trading cheaply vs AMT (21.6x) and a diversified unique asset. Its towers would come at €350,000/tower vs. recent deals at €500,000.</li>
<li>Top ten shareholders own 57.41%. The last rights issue was done at €36.33/share. At what price those shareholders could be bought out? Unlikely at less than a 25% premium, €45.5/share.</li>
</ul>


Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the intention of delisting the business.
Cellnex on 16.9x EV/22e EBITDA is trading cheaply vs AMT (21.6x) and a diversified unique asset. Its towers would come at €350,000/tower vs. recent deals at €500,000.
Top ten shareholders own 57.41%. The last rights issue was done at €36.33/share. At what price those shareholders could be bought out? Unlikely at less than a 25% premium, €45.5/share.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a> disclosed a privatisation proposal from the founder at US$8.20 per ADS, a 2.5% premium to The Hina Group/Industrial Bank’s offer of US$8.00 (disclosed on 11 April).</li>
<li>The data centre industry continues to be a hotbed for M&amp;A. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/mbk-partners-is-said-to-weigh-rival-bid-for-chinese-data-center-firm-vnet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> on 27 July that MBK Partners is mulling an offer for VNET. </li>
<li>The offer is unattractive, and Mr Cheng, with 28.79% of voting rights, will need the support of other substantial shareholders. This latest offer underlines the current mispricing of the shares</li>
</ul>



21Vianet Group (VNET US) disclosed a privatisation proposal from the founder at US$8.20 per ADS, a 2.5% premium to The Hina Group/Industrial Bank’s offer of US$8.00 (disclosed on 11 April).
The data centre industry continues to be a hotbed for M&amp;A. Bloomberg reported on 27 July that MBK Partners is mulling an offer for VNET. 
The offer is unattractive, and Mr Cheng, with 28.79% of voting rights, will need the support of other substantial shareholders. This latest offer underlines the current mispricing of the shares


VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/mbk-partners-is-said-to-weigh-rival-bid-for-chinese-data-center-firm-vnet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that MBK Partners is in talks to team up with a partner on a joint offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>. Considerations are at a preliminary stage.</li>
<li>A potential bid would compete against The Hina Group and Industrial Bank’s $8.00 per ADS offer. The Board has not provided an update on its stance on this offer.   </li>
<li>Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&amp;A activity.     </li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that MBK Partners is in talks to team up with a partner on a joint offer for 21Vianet Group (VNET US). Considerations are at a preliminary stage.
A potential bid would compete against The Hina Group and Industrial Bank’s $8.00 per ADS offer. The Board has not provided an update on its stance on this offer.   
Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&amp;A activity.     


<ul>
<li>A <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/bain-backed-chindata-said-to-field-preliminary-takeover-interest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg article</a> claimed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a> is attracting takeover interest from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a>, PAG and EdgeConneX. Shares rose 9.8% to close at $4.81.</li>
<li>Potential privatisation will require the blessing of Bain Capital, the largest shareholder. Chindata’s track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and the beaten-down rating make it a target. </li>
<li>A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x, in line with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>’s proposed acquisition multiple, would imply $6.85 per ADS. </li>
</ul>


A Bloomberg article claimed that Chindata Group (CD US) is attracting takeover interest from GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US), PAG and EdgeConneX. Shares rose 9.8% to close at $4.81.
Potential privatisation will require the blessing of Bain Capital, the largest shareholder. Chindata’s track record of beating guidance, modest leverage and the beaten-down rating make it a target. 
A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x, in line with 21Vianet Group (VNET US)’s proposed acquisition multiple, would imply $6.85 per ADS. 


Chindata the Next Chinese ADR Privatisation Target?

United States

American Tower Corp. is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops wireless communications and broadcast towers in the United States. The Company leases antennae sites on multi-tenant towers for a diverse range of wireless communications industries, including personal communications services, paging, and cellular.

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American Tower (AMT US)

AMT/Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid

American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AMT/Cellnex: Possible Combination?

Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder

The offer is unattractive. Nevertheless, with the data centre M&A activity levels remaining elevated, the current mispricing of the shares will...

Arun George

VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners

Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&A activity. Buy some...

Arun George

Chindata the Next Chinese ADR Privatisation Target?

Bloomberg claimed that Chindata is attracting takeover interest from GDS, PAG and EdgeConneX. A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x, in line with...

Arun George

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AMT/​Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid

American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AMT/Cellnex: Possible Combination?

Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder

The offer is unattractive. Nevertheless, with the data centre M&A activity levels remaining elevated, the current mispricing of the shares will...

Arun George

VNET Draws the Interest of MBK Partners

Takeover interest is unsurprisingly due to VNET’s depressed share price, unchanged FY22 guidance and ongoing data centre M&A activity. Buy some...

Arun George

Chindata the Next Chinese ADR Privatisation Target?

Bloomberg claimed that Chindata is attracting takeover interest from GDS, PAG and EdgeConneX. A forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x, in line with...

Arun George

AMT/Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid