ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>After the failed attempt to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a> and the decision to take the SPAC route to market in the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> has now reportedly taken a 4% stake in local digital and media powerhouse, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>. It seems unlikely that this is purely a strategic stake and points the way toward future collaboration potentially in a number of areas.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> remains a very interesting locally listed alternative to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments under one roof, with aspirations to emulate the success of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
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<p>In another related and interesting turn, Bukalapak, which is Indonesia's 3rd largest e-commerce firm 35% owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has raised an undisclosed sum from BRI Ventures, the venture capital arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </p>
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<p>Bukalapak claims that it now has around 13.5m MSMEs on its platform and over 100m users on its online to offline (O20) platform. </p>
<p>The merged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> entity to be named "GoTo" will be a formidable competitor for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>, a risk not highlighted enough in the seeming euphoria around the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> SPAC listing.</p>
<p>Another significant risk to Grab comes from recently launched ShopeeFood in Indonesia, which will directly impact Grab's (and Gojek's) food delivery business in Indonesia.</p>
<p>From a SotP point of view for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, it is difficult to get much beyond a US$4bn valuation but there are those arguing that it should be valued along the same lines as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, which would suggest potential significant upside from here.</p>
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After the failed attempt to merge with Gojek and the decision to take the SPAC route to market in the US, Grab (0967655D SP) has now reportedly taken a 4% stake in local digital and media powerhouse, Emtek (EMTK IJ). It seems unlikely that this is purely a strategic stake and points the way toward future collaboration potentially in a number of areas.

Emtek (EMTK IJ) remains a very interesting locally listed alternative to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments under one roof, with aspirations to emulate the success of  Sea Ltd (SE US).

In another related and interesting turn, Bukalapak, which is Indonesia's 3rd largest e-commerce firm 35% owned by Emtek (EMTK IJ) has raised an undisclosed sum from BRI Ventures, the venture capital arm of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 

Bukalapak claims that it now has around 13.5m MSMEs on its platform and over 100m users on its online to offline (O20) platform. 
The merged Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) entity to be named "GoTo" will be a formidable competitor for Grab, a risk not highlighted enough in the seeming euphoria around the Grab SPAC listing.
Another significant risk to Grab comes from recently launched ShopeeFood in Indonesia, which will directly impact Grab's (and Gojek's) food delivery business in Indonesia.
From a SotP point of view for Emtek (EMTK IJ), it is difficult to get much beyond a US$4bn valuation but there are those arguing that it should be valued along the same lines as Sea Ltd (SE US), which would suggest potential significant upside from here.









Emtek (EMTK IJ) - The Indonesian Digital Game of Thrones

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>Last year saw the launch of a new netsuper by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP)</a>. The combination of the leading e-commerce retailer and the country’s top supermarket chain makes this one of the strongest contenders in the race for online food sales, particularly as Life is under the control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> – although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> aren’t standing still.</p>
<p>Amazon is now expanding its tie-up with Life and plans to bring in Valor as a new partner later this year and is highly likely to add further partnerships going forward.</p>

Last year saw the launch of a new netsuper by Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Life Corp (8194 JP). The combination of the leading e-commerce retailer and the country’s top supermarket chain makes this one of the strongest contenders in the race for online food sales, particularly as Life is under the control of Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) – although Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) and Z Holdings (4689 JP) aren’t standing still.
Amazon is now expanding its tie-up with Life and plans to bring in Valor as a new partner later this year and is highly likely to add further partnerships going forward.

Amazon Adds Partnership with Valor in Race for Japan Online Food Retail Leadership

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> has been a shining example of what can be achieved through both Operating- and Financial leverage as a business scales up. This has been a commendable performance by its management team over the past nearly a decade, balancing gains from operating and financial leverage, whilst prudently, yet aggressively, investing in growth. Over the past 8 years it has delivered expansion at the Gross margin level (through mix change to advertising revenue and scale in 1P), the Operating margin level (lower losses in 3P), and the net margin level (cash generation and lower losses from associates). </p><p>With lingering concerns around short-term margin expansion, as the group invests more aggressively in group purchasing aimed at the fresh food segment, in this insight, I analyse the potential for long-term margin expansion and what that implies for current valuation levels for China’s largest direct retailer.</p>

JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) has been a shining example of what can be achieved through both Operating- and Financial leverage as a business scales up. This has been a commendable performance by its management team over the past nearly a decade, balancing gains from operating and financial leverage, whilst prudently, yet aggressively, investing in growth. Over the past 8 years it has delivered expansion at the Gross margin level (through mix change to advertising revenue and scale in 1P), the Operating margin level (lower losses in 3P), and the net margin level (cash generation and lower losses from associates). With lingering concerns around short-term margin expansion, as the group invests more aggressively in group purchasing aimed at the fresh food segment, in this insight, I analyse the potential for long-term margin expansion and what that implies for current valuation levels for China’s largest direct retailer.

JD.com: A Detailed Look at Long-Term Margins and Valuation

<p>The war between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> and Rakuten for leadership in digital ecosystems has seen Z Holdings acquire new partners and subsidiaries, and take leadership in cashless payments and then messaging through its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a>.</p><p>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> is fighting back with a truly game changing deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> that could provide the reach and finance to develop new synergies in e-commerce, logistics, cashless payments and points, banking, insurance and mobile.</p><p><strong>This is a major reset in the rivalry in digital commerce, making Rakuten almost like a state-backed enterprise – with all the benefits that implies. Z Holdings should be worried.</strong></p>

The war between Softbank Corp (9434 JP)/Z Holdings (4689 JP) and Rakuten for leadership in digital ecosystems has seen Z Holdings acquire new partners and subsidiaries, and take leadership in cashless payments and then messaging through its merger with LINE Corp (3938 JP).Now Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) is fighting back with a truly game changing deal with Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) that could provide the reach and finance to develop new synergies in e-commerce, logistics, cashless payments and points, banking, insurance and mobile.This is a major reset in the rivalry in digital commerce, making Rakuten almost like a state-backed enterprise – with all the benefits that implies. Z Holdings should be worried.

Gamechanger: Rakuten’s Win-Win Alliance with Japan Post

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>So many datapoints in the past week speak to how strong earnings should be for the biggest online advertising players. Our order of preference for 1Q21: Facebook, Amazon, Google, Snap, eBay, Pinterest.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

So many datapoints in the past week speak to how strong earnings should be for the biggest online advertising players. Our order of preference for 1Q21: Facebook, Amazon, Google, Snap, eBay, Pinterest.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly 4/9/2021: Be Long Online Advertising for Earnings

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - The Indonesian Digital Game of Thrones

EMTEK remains the largest locally listed proxy to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments in Indonesia. The news that Grab has taken a...

Angus Mackintosh

Amazon Adds Partnership with Valor in Race for Japan Online Food Retail Leadership

Amazon is reaching out to the leading supermarkets in each region to create a network of supply and delivery points for its online supermarket in...

Michael Causton

JD.com: A Detailed Look at Long-Term Margins and Valuation

In this insight, I analyse the potential for long-term margin expansion and what that implies for current valuation levels for China’s largest...

Wium Malan, CFA

Gamechanger: Rakuten’s Win-Win Alliance with Japan Post

Japan Post's investment in Rakuten is a genuinely seismic shift in the balance of power in digital ecosystems in Japan, bolstering Rakuten where it...

Michael Causton

TMT Weekly 4/9/2021: Be Long Online Advertising for Earnings

Online Advertising and eCommerce is still buoyed by secular tailwinds despite the fears on tough pandemic driven comps. We prefer Amazon, Facebook,...

Aaron Gabin

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