TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.</li>
<li>The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.</li>
<li>Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs</li>
</ul>


Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs


Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues</li>
<li>TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.</li>
<li>Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.</li>
</ul>


5 Issues: Tough Comps, Supply Chain Disruptions, Reels MixShift, Apple IDFA, and TikTok...thats alot of issues
TikTok is pressuring engagement and Google is taking Facebook's advertising revenues.
Strong management team with history of executing at a trough valuation provides a good entry point. But may make more sense to just buy Google.


Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

<ul>
<li>Singapore government introduced a moratorium on new data centres in 2019</li>
<li>As result, incumbent data centre REITs recalibrated their portfolio strategy including to pursue DPU and NAV growth through accretive overseas acquisitions </li>
<li>In Q2 2022, the moratorium is expected to be lifted with conditional approvals for applicants that meet certain sustainability requirements. We discuss the implications for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-dc-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:85:1" rel="noopener">Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


Singapore government introduced a moratorium on new data centres in 2019
As result, incumbent data centre REITs recalibrated their portfolio strategy including to pursue DPU and NAV growth through accretive overseas acquisitions 
In Q2 2022, the moratorium is expected to be lifted with conditional approvals for applicants that meet certain sustainability requirements. We discuss the implications for Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) 


Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) - Imminent Lifting of SG Data Centre Moratorium and Its Implications

<ul>
<li>Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)</li>
<li>Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.</li>
<li>Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)
Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.
Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carousell-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28154:1" rel="noopener">Carousell Pte Ltd (1040620D SP)</a> is South East Asia's largest  "classifieds marketplace" and it claims to make selling as easy as taking a photo and buying as simple as chatting. The traffic through Carousell is impressive but the question is can it monetize this huge potential?
Founded in August 2012, Carousell began in Singapore and is now one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing classifieds marketplaces, with a presence in eight markets across South East Asia, together with Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Carousell offers through classified listings a diverse range of products across a variety of categories, including lifestyle, gadgets, and fashion accessories but has been moving to more profitable and big-ticket areas, such as autos, property, and job ads.
The company is backed by a number of large-sized investors including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telenor-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22258:1" rel="noopener">Telenor ASA (TEL NO)</a>, Rakuten Ventures <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>, Naver, Sequoia Capital (India), OLX, and most recently STIC investments giving the company strong backing with the most recent valuation at US$1.1bn, sealing its entry to the unicorn club. 
The company was reportedly exploring a potential listing in the US through a SPAC listing which could value the company at as much as US$1.5bn but management has said that it is considering all options to grow the company including an IPO. Carousel this year appointed a former <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a> executive Edwin Chan as its CFO. Chan oversaw a gaming hardware company’s public listing in Hong Kong in 2017. We see this company as one of the most ESG-friendly investments available given its exposure to the circular economy.

Carousell Pte Ltd (1040620D SP) is South East Asia's largest  "classifieds marketplace" and it claims to make selling as easy as taking a photo and buying as simple as chatting. The traffic through Carousell is impressive but the question is can it monetize this huge potential?
Founded in August 2012, Carousell began in Singapore and is now one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing classifieds marketplaces, with a presence in eight markets across South East Asia, together with Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Carousell offers through classified listings a diverse range of products across a variety of categories, including lifestyle, gadgets, and fashion accessories but has been moving to more profitable and big-ticket areas, such as autos, property, and job ads.
The company is backed by a number of large-sized investors including Telenor ASA (TEL NO), Rakuten Ventures Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), Naver, Sequoia Capital (India), OLX, and most recently STIC investments giving the company strong backing with the most recent valuation at US$1.1bn, sealing its entry to the unicorn club. 
The company was reportedly exploring a potential listing in the US through a SPAC listing which could value the company at as much as US$1.5bn but management has said that it is considering all options to grow the company including an IPO. Carousel this year appointed a former Razer Inc (1337 HK) executive Edwin Chan as its CFO. Chan oversaw a gaming hardware company’s public listing in Hong Kong in 2017. We see this company as one of the most ESG-friendly investments available given its exposure to the circular economy.

Carousell - Champion of the Circular Economy

United States

Makemytrip Ltd. offers travel services over the Internet.  The Company operates websites that allow travelers to research and plan trips and book airline tickets, hotels, packages, rail tickets, bus tickets, and rental cars. Makemytrip also offers access to travel insurance.

The RealReal, Inc. owns and operates a members-only consignment marketplace for luxury goods. The Company specializes in curating and authenticating a full range of previously owned luxury products such as clothing, shoes, accessories, and jewelry that are sold on consignment. The RealReal markets its products and services throughout the United States.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

VMware, Inc. provides virtualization solutions from the desktop to the data center. The Company's solution products addresses a range of IT problems, which includes cost and operational inefficiencies, business continuity, software lifecycle management and desktop management.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides computer solutions through the use of advanced information technology. The Company's solutions include technologies, systems, products, services, software, and financing. IBM offers its products through its global sales and distribution organization, as well as through a variety of third party distributors and resellers.

Besttone Holdings Co Ltd is involved in hotel management, catering and travel arrangement.  The Company is based in China.

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Infosys Limited provides IT consulting and software services, including e-business, program management and supply chain solutions. The Group's services include application development, product co-development, and system implementation and system engineering. Infosys targets businesses specializing in the insurance, banking, telecommunication and manufacturing sectors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. provides electronic manufacturing services for computers, communications, and consumer electronic products.  The Company's business operations include desktop and notebook PC assembly, connector production, cable assembly, PCB assembly, handset manufacturing, networking equipment, and other consumer electronic devices manufacturing.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

Disney's recent announcement of an ad-supported tier being launched for Disney+ strikes us as a questionable strategic choice that indicates market...

Aaron Gabin

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) - Imminent Lifting of SG Data Centre Moratorium and Its Implications

Singapore introduced a moratorium on new data centres which caused incumbents to recalibrate their strategy. With the moratorium expected to be...

Jason Yap, CFA

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

Carousell - Champion of the Circular Economy

Carousell is South-East Asia's largest classifieds marketplace which recently entered the uniform club with a valuation of US$1.1bn. It is a unique...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

Disney's recent announcement of an ad-supported tier being launched for Disney+ strikes us as a questionable strategic choice that indicates market...

Aaron Gabin

Facebook 4Q21: Trending on TikTok ‘How to Lose $200B in Market Cap’

TikTok's threat doesn’t impact the wave of monetization opportunities related to commerce, messaging, and the metaverse. FB trading at the same...

Aaron Gabin

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) - Imminent Lifting of SG Data Centre Moratorium and Its Implications

Singapore introduced a moratorium on new data centres which caused incumbents to recalibrate their strategy. With the moratorium expected to be...

Jason Yap, CFA

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

Carousell - Champion of the Circular Economy

Carousell is South-East Asia's largest classifieds marketplace which recently entered the uniform club with a valuation of US$1.1bn. It is a unique...

Angus Mackintosh