Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The focus of this Insight is the Food Retail business in India, that is witnessing intense competition. The food retail or the grocery retail business is attractive because of the high repeat frequency compared to other forms of retail where market share is supposedly shifting from Kirana stores to brick and motor and online retailers and recently, also attracting food delivery apps, that are trying to optimise their delivery fleet via offering grocery deliveries. 
We visit EasyPay, a 5-year-old company started by Nilay Patel.  EasyPay offers solutions to help unorganised small mom and pop stores called "Kirana Stores" in India. Our visit is aimed at understanding the emerging O2O (Online to Offline) theme that is shaping up Indian Retail and Payments Industry,  and has now also reached the Kirana stores. The current industry dynamics indicate a share of market for all players i.e. Offline Retailers, Online Stores and even Kirana Stores that adapt to newer forms of retail using technology and Data often referred to as "Smart Retail". It would, be too early to write off the ability of Kirana stores to fight back modern retail.

The focus of this Insight is the Food Retail business in India, that is witnessing intense competition. The food retail or the grocery retail business is attractive because of the high repeat frequency compared to other forms of retail where market share is supposedly shifting from Kirana stores to brick and motor and online retailers and recently, also attracting food delivery apps, that are trying to optimise their delivery fleet via offering grocery deliveries. 
We visit EasyPay, a 5-year-old company started by Nilay Patel.  EasyPay offers solutions to help unorganised small mom and pop stores called "Kirana Stores" in India. Our visit is aimed at understanding the emerging O2O (Online to Offline) theme that is shaping up Indian Retail and Payments Industry,  and has now also reached the Kirana stores. The current industry dynamics indicate a share of market for all players i.e. Offline Retailers, Online Stores and even Kirana Stores that adapt to newer forms of retail using technology and Data often referred to as "Smart Retail". It would, be too early to write off the ability of Kirana stores to fight back modern retail. 

Visit Note | The Case For "Kirana" Stores & Their Fight with Modern Retail

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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<ul>
<li>Transportation industries Kodak Moment embracing Hybrids, modest near-term EV growth</li>
<li>Widespread adoption of Hydrogen considered unlikely</li>
<li>41% of Platinum &amp; 84% of Palladium reliant on autocatalyst demand</li>
<li>Hybrids in Europe up 107% in three years at 1:7 to diesel counterparts, without subsidies</li>
<li>Hybrid premium ~ 8% like-for-like over a combustion vehicle </li>
<li>Carpooling/ride-share platforms have hallmarks of being a macro-trend</li>
<li>W. Asian carpool CAGR of 77.6% over past 11 years</li>
<li>Est. by close 2019 &gt;62m people globally will utilise trans. platforms, forgoing car ownership
</li>
<li>Adverse impact on vehicle growth, models, drive-trains, R&amp;D, insurance &amp; finance </li>
<li>Logistics industry diesel transitioning will affect LT PGM demand, in particular platinum</li>
<li>Primary platinum-surplus to grow in time, downward pressure on price</li>
</ul>
Auto-catalysts make up the majority of platinums (41%) and in particular, palladium (84%) end use demand.  To determine the future demand profile for PGMs, therefore, we examined the types and likelihood of future drivetrains, as well as technologies affecting unit demand.
Hydrogen's key attraction is its potential green credentials, and if it was to ever became a reality, resultant PGM catalyst demand would outstrip all existing suppliers.  To achieve that noble aim, however, gargantuan energy resources would be needed to conduct electrolysis of water, thermodynamically, a very energy intensive process.  Our analysis concludes that hydrogen will remain a boutique industry, confined to economies with abundant hydrocarbon production, with conversion relying on steam reformation.  Overall impact of hydrogen on PGM demand, will be marginal at best.
Presently, EVs have substantial range and recharge hurdles to overcome before they could ever be a primary mode of transport for many; with global demand primarily driven by Chinese directives, not by the Western consumer.  In the short to medium-term, we do not expect EVs to impact PGM demand significantly.  However, we preface that statement by our belief that in the longer-term, the largest adopter of EVs will be within the commercial logistics sector, currently dominated by diesel power plants, which rely on a substantial amount of platinum within its auto-catalysts.  Widespread adoption of EVs and robotic drones and the replacement of traditional diesel drivetrains will only exacerbate current over-supply in platinum, in time, we forecast its price to fall substantially.
Hybrid sales are up 107% in Europe over the past three years without any state subsidies.  It is reasonable to assume that potential demand of PGMs have, and will continue to be, stymied by hybrid advances.  But we expect overall (even modest) growth in car volume sales should maintain current market dynamics, in the short to medium term.
Carpooling and a host of other transactional transport options are now a realistic, flexible and affordable life-style choice, that contradict the necessity of car ownership.  Especially among the inner-city urbanites, with Asia averaging a CAGR of 77.6% over the past decade.  Car manufacturers are already experiencing significant sales headwinds.  On average it has been found that members/fleet ratio (i.e. No. of cars divided by No. of members) range between 61 – 76, a fraction of unit demand when compared with an average Western family of three or four members, often owning two vehicles.  Using decade average regional CAGRs, projecting three years in advance, the potential number of decreased car sales globally could reach 62m by the close of 2019.  To put that into context, Volkswagen and Toyota produce between 10 to 11m  units each pa.  This raises the question of whether recent sluggish global car sales is somehow related to the almost exponential growth in carpooling/ride-share platforms?


Transportation industries Kodak Moment embracing Hybrids, modest near-term EV growth
Widespread adoption of Hydrogen considered unlikely
41% of Platinum &amp; 84% of Palladium reliant on autocatalyst demand
Hybrids in Europe up 107% in three years at 1:7 to diesel counterparts, without subsidies
Hybrid premium ~ 8% like-for-like over a combustion vehicle 
Carpooling/ride-share platforms have hallmarks of being a macro-trend
W. Asian carpool CAGR of 77.6% over past 11 years
Est. by close 2019 &gt;62m people globally will utilise trans. platforms, forgoing car ownership

Adverse impact on vehicle growth, models, drive-trains, R&amp;D, insurance &amp; finance 
Logistics industry diesel transitioning will affect LT PGM demand, in particular platinum
Primary platinum-surplus to grow in time, downward pressure on price

Auto-catalysts make up the majority of platinums (41%) and in particular, palladium (84%) end use demand.  To determine the future demand profile for PGMs, therefore, we examined the types and likelihood of future drivetrains, as well as technologies affecting unit demand.
Hydrogen's key attraction is its potential green credentials, and if it was to ever became a reality, resultant PGM catalyst demand would outstrip all existing suppliers.  To achieve that noble aim, however, gargantuan energy resources would be needed to conduct electrolysis of water, thermodynamically, a very energy intensive process.  Our analysis concludes that hydrogen will remain a boutique industry, confined to economies with abundant hydrocarbon production, with conversion relying on steam reformation.  Overall impact of hydrogen on PGM demand, will be marginal at best.
Presently, EVs have substantial range and recharge hurdles to overcome before they could ever be a primary mode of transport for many; with global demand primarily driven by Chinese directives, not by the Western consumer.  In the short to medium-term, we do not expect EVs to impact PGM demand significantly.  However, we preface that statement by our belief that in the longer-term, the largest adopter of EVs will be within the commercial logistics sector, currently dominated by diesel power plants, which rely on a substantial amount of platinum within its auto-catalysts.  Widespread adoption of EVs and robotic drones and the replacement of traditional diesel drivetrains will only exacerbate current over-supply in platinum, in time, we forecast its price to fall substantially.
Hybrid sales are up 107% in Europe over the past three years without any state subsidies.  It is reasonable to assume that potential demand of PGMs have, and will continue to be, stymied by hybrid advances.  But we expect overall (even modest) growth in car volume sales should maintain current market dynamics, in the short to medium term.
Carpooling and a host of other transactional transport options are now a realistic, flexible and affordable life-style choice, that contradict the necessity of car ownership.  Especially among the inner-city urbanites, with Asia averaging a CAGR of 77.6% over the past decade.  Car manufacturers are already experiencing significant sales headwinds.  On average it has been found that members/fleet ratio (i.e. No. of cars divided by No. of members) range between 61 – 76, a fraction of unit demand when compared with an average Western family of three or four members, often owning two vehicles.  Using decade average regional CAGRs, projecting three years in advance, the potential number of decreased car sales globally could reach 62m by the close of 2019.  To put that into context, Volkswagen and Toyota produce between 10 to 11m  units each pa.  This raises the question of whether recent sluggish global car sales is somehow related to the almost exponential growth in carpooling/ride-share platforms?

PGMs: Facing Technological Obsolescence? (P. 2)

Can <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)</a> 's Alipay and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> WeChat pay replicate their success in India? With the world's second highest mobile phone users and more than 45 pre-paid Payment Instruments providers, India is witnessing a fiercely competitive payments landscape. In this Insight, we explore options available for public market and VC/PE investors to play the Indian payments theme. We also provide an overview of Indian investments of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24240" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1">Ant Financial (1051260D CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11134" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1">Wal Mart Stores (WMT US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21085" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1">Naspers Ltd (NPN SJ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> &amp; Sequoia Capital India.  Paytm, PhonePe, Amazon Pay and Mobikwik are the ones that really matter.
As payment providers move up from pure transactions to more value-added services like Wealth Management &amp; Offline payments, we also suggest possible channel checks for the focus companies with a view of understanding economics and competitive intensity.

Can Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) 's Alipay and Tencent Holdings (700 HK) WeChat pay replicate their success in India? With the world's second highest mobile phone users and more than 45 pre-paid Payment Instruments providers, India is witnessing a fiercely competitive payments landscape. In this Insight, we explore options available for public market and VC/PE investors to play the Indian payments theme. We also provide an overview of Indian investments of Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) , Ant Financial (1051260D CH) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Wal Mart Stores (WMT US) , Naspers Ltd (NPN SJ) , Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) &amp; Sequoia Capital India.  Paytm, PhonePe, Amazon Pay and Mobikwik are the ones that really matter.
As payment providers move up from pure transactions to more value-added services like Wealth Management &amp; Offline payments, we also suggest possible channel checks for the focus companies with a view of understanding economics and competitive intensity. 

India Payments | What Really Matters and Suggested Channel Checks

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Private Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight"><h2>Profitability is in sight as we foresee <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27999" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27999:1">Pinterest Inc (PINS US)</a> taking a pinch out of the global digital advertising market.</h2></div><hr>In our view, Pinterest, an online product and idea discovery company that generates revenue by selling digital ads, has an intrinsic value of $15 billion, or $22 per share on a fully diluted basis. The firm is progressing toward an initial public offering by mid-April. After its last round of funding in June 2017, the firm's implied valuation was $12.3 billion, according to PitchBook. However, in its latest S-1 filing on April 8, Pinterest indicated an IPO price range of $15-$17; the $16 per share midpoint represents nearly an $11 billion market capitalization, below its last post-funding valuation. Assuming the IPO pricing remains in that range, we view Pinterest as an attractive investment opportunity.We rate Pinterest as having a narrow economic moat and stable moat trend based on the network effect and intangible asset (data) moat sources, which we think can drive the company to profitability and excess returns on invested capital in the future. With more than 250 million average monthly users who access Pinterest with the intention of not only discovering ideas or products but also purchasing them immediately or in the future, we think the firm can attract more online ad dollars. In our view, Pinterest can attract various types of ad campaigns through the marketing funnel—from broad exposure or awareness to targeting and actual conversion. We think opportunities exist for the firm to gradually increase its share of the U.S. digital advertising market, after which, as its international users (mainly in Europe) increase, it will attract more ad dollars for that audience.Pinterest is focused on carving out a piece of the global digital advertising space, which we value at a total addressable market of nearly $500 billion. While we don't expect Pinterest to displace online advertising behemoths <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/665" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> or up-and-coming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>, we do expect it to attract a small pinch of digital ad spending.We expect impressive revenue growth at a 35% compound annual growth rate for Pinterest through 2023, likely to be driven by overall growth in digital advertising (which we estimate at a 12% CAGR) plus the firm adding more advertisers and the sale of more ad inventory as it is in its early growth stage. With strong top-line growth and Pinterest's network effect and data economic moat sources, we expect gross margin and operating margin expansion and foresee the firm becoming profitable in 2021, with the operating margin increasing to over 15% by 2023.<h2>Key Takeaways</h2><ul>
<li>We believe Pinterest warrants a narrow economic moat and stable moat trend rating. Indications of the network effect and intangible asset economic moat sources include Pinterest's strong (albeit decelerating) user growth and increase in average revenue generated per user through advertising.</li>
<li>While Pinterest will be competing with digital advertising behemoths like Google, Facebook, and more recently Amazon, we believe it can attract enough advertisers or ad dollars to become profitable and generate excess return on invested capital.</li>
<li>Pinterest's more innovative features such as Product Pins, Shop the Look, and visual search tool Lens have attracted retailers and direct-to-consumer brands to purchase ads on the platform and should continue to do so.</li>
<li>Pinterest's total addressable market is the global digital advertising market, valued at nearly $500 billion. We think that because pinners access the Pinterest app with the intention of not only discovering ideas or products but also purchasing them immediately or in the future, advertisers are willing to purchase ads from the firm.</li>
<li>We value Pinterest at $15 billion, higher than its latest filed IPO pricing range and its implied valuation of $12.3 billion in its last funding round.</li>
<li>On April 8, Pinterest indicated that it may price its shares between $15 and $17, the midpoint of which we estimate represents an $11 billion valuation, below its post-funding valuation. If the IPO pricing comes in below $17.60 per share or below a 0.80 price/fair value, we would view Pinterest shares as attractive.</li>
<li>We model strong ongoing revenue growth driven by growth in overall digital advertising plus the firm's advertisers and ad inventory. With strong top-line growth and Pinterest's economic moat sources creating operating leverage, we expect Pinterest to become profitable by 2021.</li>
</ul>

Profitability is in sight as we foresee Pinterest Inc (PINS US) taking a pinch out of the global digital advertising market.In our view, Pinterest, an online product and idea discovery company that generates revenue by selling digital ads, has an intrinsic value of $15 billion, or $22 per share on a fully diluted basis. The firm is progressing toward an initial public offering by mid-April. After its last round of funding in June 2017, the firm's implied valuation was $12.3 billion, according to PitchBook. However, in its latest S-1 filing on April 8, Pinterest indicated an IPO price range of $15-$17; the $16 per share midpoint represents nearly an $11 billion market capitalization, below its last post-funding valuation. Assuming the IPO pricing remains in that range, we view Pinterest as an attractive investment opportunity.We rate Pinterest as having a narrow economic moat and stable moat trend based on the network effect and intangible asset (data) moat sources, which we think can drive the company to profitability and excess returns on invested capital in the future. With more than 250 million average monthly users who access Pinterest with the intention of not only discovering ideas or products but also purchasing them immediately or in the future, we think the firm can attract more online ad dollars. In our view, Pinterest can attract various types of ad campaigns through the marketing funnel—from broad exposure or awareness to targeting and actual conversion. We think opportunities exist for the firm to gradually increase its share of the U.S. digital advertising market, after which, as its international users (mainly in Europe) increase, it will attract more ad dollars for that audience.Pinterest is focused on carving out a piece of the global digital advertising space, which we value at a total addressable market of nearly $500 billion. While we don't expect Pinterest to displace online advertising behemoths Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) and Facebook Inc A (FB US) or up-and-coming Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US), we do expect it to attract a small pinch of digital ad spending.We expect impressive revenue growth at a 35% compound annual growth rate for Pinterest through 2023, likely to be driven by overall growth in digital advertising (which we estimate at a 12% CAGR) plus the firm adding more advertisers and the sale of more ad inventory as it is in its early growth stage. With strong top-line growth and Pinterest's network effect and data economic moat sources, we expect gross margin and operating margin expansion and foresee the firm becoming profitable in 2021, with the operating margin increasing to over 15% by 2023.Key Takeaways
We believe Pinterest warrants a narrow economic moat and stable moat trend rating. Indications of the network effect and intangible asset economic moat sources include Pinterest's strong (albeit decelerating) user growth and increase in average revenue generated per user through advertising.
While Pinterest will be competing with digital advertising behemoths like Google, Facebook, and more recently Amazon, we believe it can attract enough advertisers or ad dollars to become profitable and generate excess return on invested capital.
Pinterest's more innovative features such as Product Pins, Shop the Look, and visual search tool Lens have attracted retailers and direct-to-consumer brands to purchase ads on the platform and should continue to do so.
Pinterest's total addressable market is the global digital advertising market, valued at nearly $500 billion. We think that because pinners access the Pinterest app with the intention of not only discovering ideas or products but also purchasing them immediately or in the future, advertisers are willing to purchase ads from the firm.
We value Pinterest at $15 billion, higher than its latest filed IPO pricing range and its implied valuation of $12.3 billion in its last funding round.
On April 8, Pinterest indicated that it may price its shares between $15 and $17, the midpoint of which we estimate represents an $11 billion valuation, below its post-funding valuation. If the IPO pricing comes in below $17.60 per share or below a 0.80 price/fair value, we would view Pinterest shares as attractive.
We model strong ongoing revenue growth driven by growth in overall digital advertising plus the firm's advertisers and ad inventory. With strong top-line growth and Pinterest's economic moat sources creating operating leverage, we expect Pinterest to become profitable by 2021.


Pinning a Narrow Moat Rating on the Pinterest Board

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This week in StubWorld ...
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21085" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1">Naspers Ltd (NPN SJ)</a>'s discount to NAV narrows as it teases out more information on spinning-off and separately listing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>
Preceding my comments on Naspers are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

This week in StubWorld ...


Naspers Ltd (NPN SJ)'s discount to NAV narrows as it teases out more information on spinning-off and separately listing Tencent Holdings (700 HK).

Preceding my comments on Naspers are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Visit Note | The Case For "Kirana" Stores & Their Fight with Modern Retail

The focus of this Insight is the Food Retail business in India, that is witnessing intense competition. The food retail or the grocery retail...

Pranav Bhavsar

PGMs: Facing Technological Obsolescence? (P. 2)

Transportation industries Kodak Moment embracing Hybrids, modest near-term EV growth Widespread adoption of Hydrogen considered unlikely 41% of...

Boost Research

India Payments | What Really Matters and Suggested Channel Checks

Can Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) 's Alipay and Tencent Holdings (700 HK) WeChat pay replicate their success in India? With the world's second...

Pranav Bhavsar

Pinning a Narrow Moat Rating on the Pinterest Board

Profitability is in sight as we foresee Pinterest Inc (PINS US) taking a pinch out of the global digital advertising market.In our view, Pinterest,...

Morningstar, Inc.

StubWorld: Naspers' Restructuring Update

This week in StubWorld ... Naspers Ltd (NPN SJ)'s discount to NAV narrows as it teases out more information on spinning-off and separately...

David Blennerhassett

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