TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Alot of handwringing on the Facebook conference call about tough 2H20 comps and the big "Apple IDFA Overhang"...we think the lady doth protest too much. Facebook will be just fine, and at 14x forward EBITDA for ~20% EBITDA growth, its one of the most compelling values in TMT.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Alot of handwringing on the Facebook conference call about tough 2H20 comps and the big "Apple IDFA Overhang"...we think the lady doth protest too much. Facebook will be just fine, and at 14x forward EBITDA for ~20% EBITDA growth, its one of the most compelling values in TMT.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Facebook 4Q20: Trying to Take a Bite Out of the Apple

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The objective of this insight is to reflect back on our work published on SmartKarma - to highlight what has worked for us and more importantly what has not worked and our plans to improve the same. </p>
<p>2020 is indeed special and we are unlikely to see something similar in our professional life once again. Therefore, we have made an attempt to capture our key learnings, which will also enable us to reflect back on the same at frequent intervals in time. </p>
<p>We also highlight our key themes for 2021 along with sectorial preferences where we might deploy our resources. </p>

The objective of this insight is to reflect back on our work published on SmartKarma - to highlight what has worked for us and more importantly what has not worked and our plans to improve the same. 
2020 is indeed special and we are unlikely to see something similar in our professional life once again. Therefore, we have made an attempt to capture our key learnings, which will also enable us to reflect back on the same at frequent intervals in time. 
We also highlight our key themes for 2021 along with sectorial preferences where we might deploy our resources. 

2020 Review & 2021 Key Themes | What Worked and What Has Not

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<p><strong>In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the next President of the United States). </strong></p><div class="content-highlight">
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>Overall, we would not claim to know if Trump will enact the Insurrection Act in order to recount the votes next week. It is premature for us to know what will exactly happen. However, we do want to highlight that it is unprecedented to have nearly 25,000 troops to secure Washington DC for the Inauguration day. While the dominant view in the media is that Biden will be inaugurated as the next US President, there is a (very) minority view that Trump could enact the Insurrection Act to have the military intervene and recount the votes in key swing states. </p>
</div>

In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the next President of the United States). 
Conclusion
Overall, we would not claim to know if Trump will enact the Insurrection Act in order to recount the votes next week. It is premature for us to know what will exactly happen. However, we do want to highlight that it is unprecedented to have nearly 25,000 troops to secure Washington DC for the Inauguration day. While the dominant view in the media is that Biden will be inaugurated as the next US President, there is a (very) minority view that Trump could enact the Insurrection Act to have the military intervene and recount the votes in key swing states. 


Two Contrasting Views of What Could Happen Next Week in the United States on January 20th

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. </p>
<p>Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. </p>
</div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/498/original/image_2762037721610626999059.png?1610626999" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182498"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: Capital IQ</p>
</div>

Despite the lockdown and ceaseless increase in the infection cases in Indonesia, the mobility rate in the workplace has improved by 50% that helped to narrow Q3 2020 loss apart from the cost savings initiative. 
Vaccine discovery has helped Bluebird's share price ascension but the real push will come from the vaccination in Indonesia that will lead to a looser government policy lockdown and it is bound to create a more permanent feeling that it is business as usual (pre-COVID) therefore may even lead to a re-opening of the borders. 

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite a 57% rally. We should expect to see further multiple expansion in Blue Bird as mass vaccination is taking place and people have more confidence in the economic recovery in Indonesia. 



source: Capital IQ


President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

<p>Solid state storage is now primary storage in many applications, driven by the wide-spread use of NAND flash.  NVMe is now the dominant SSD interface, enabling new network and storage architectures.  MRAM and 3D XPoint memory are appearing in many storage/memory products and the slow-down in NOR, SRAM and DRAM scaling are opening opportunities for RRAM and FRAM memories as well.  All these memory technologies are enabling established and startup companies.</p>

Solid state storage is now primary storage in many applications, driven by the wide-spread use of NAND flash.  NVMe is now the dominant SSD interface, enabling new network and storage architectures.  MRAM and 3D XPoint memory are appearing in many storage/memory products and the slow-down in NOR, SRAM and DRAM scaling are opening opportunities for RRAM and FRAM memories as well.  All these memory technologies are enabling established and startup companies.

Solid State Storage and Memory in 2021:  New Opportunities for Leaders and Startups

United States

Alphabet, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOG US)

Facebook 4Q20: Trying to Take a Bite Out of the Apple

Facebook printed a extremely strong quarter and commentary regarding potential overhangs from Apple and tough comps is just Facebook talking down...

Aaron Gabin

2020 Review & 2021 Key Themes | What Worked and What Has Not

A walk down the memory lane. What has worked, what has not, what have we learnt and how we think 2021 will pan out, this insight is our reflection...

Pranav Bhavsar

Two Contrasting Views of What Could Happen Next Week in the United States on January 20th

In this insight, we discuss the two contrasting views of what could happen next week in the United States on January 20th (Inauguration day of the...

Douglas Kim

BlueBird (BIRD): Flying Higher

At 9.8 EV/EBITDA and 0.73 PBR, Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is currently trading at 42% and 44% discount in EV/EBITDA and PBR compared to its peers despite...

Henry Soediarko

Solid State Storage and Memory in 2021: New Opportunities for Leaders and Startups

Solid State Storage/Memory enables new applications in 2021, fueling storage systems and embedded device established and startup companies.

Thomas Coughlin

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