TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, and gave an impressive guidance given the sheer amount of spending the company is engaged in as it builds its logistics capabilities at breakneck speed. The stock, like its mega cap brethren has been weak for a variety of reasons (Covid/Election-linked volatility = sell all beats)..and is at the same price as prior to 2Q20 earnings. For a long term investor, $3000 is a good entry point, as we think the stock is eventually worth $6000…and ongoing Covid lockdowns will only increase demand for all its services.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, and gave an impressive guidance given the sheer amount of spending the company is engaged in as it builds its logistics capabilities at breakneck speed. The stock, like its mega cap brethren has been weak for a variety of reasons (Covid/Election-linked volatility = sell all beats)..and is at the same price as prior to 2Q20 earnings. For a long term investor, $3000 is a good entry point, as we think the stock is eventually worth $6000…and ongoing Covid lockdowns will only increase demand for all its services.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Spotify continues to generate mid-teens revenue growth, zero operating leverage, declining pricing power, and decent subscriber growth. We are still waiting for an explanation of why paying out $100s of millions of dollars for minimally profitable (assuming it was disclosed) podcasting content translated to a $25B increase in market cap since April.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Spotify continues to generate mid-teens revenue growth, zero operating leverage, declining pricing power, and decent subscriber growth. We are still waiting for an explanation of why paying out $100s of millions of dollars for minimally profitable (assuming it was disclosed) podcasting content translated to a $25B increase in market cap since April.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Strong APT FY 1Q21 Results: Afterpay released a strong quarterly update with momentum across the entire business with further integrations with large retailer contracts ahead of the holiday shopping season. GMV of AUD 4.1 bn during the quarter; active customers are 11.2 mn, up from 9.9m at end of June – ahead of our expectations; and Australia in-store sales are recovering, representing close to 20% of total sales;*Earning Their Stripe: Afterpay had also announced that it had entered into a strategic partnership with Stripe Payments,  a major global payments company with over 100,000 SMBs, to allow its users to offer Afterpay their customers which should allow it to expand its reach among online shoppers; and  *Sprinkling More Fairy Dust: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 358% over the past five months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology buy-now, pay later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*Strong APT FY 1Q21 Results: Afterpay released a strong quarterly update with momentum across the entire business with further integrations with large retailer contracts ahead of the holiday shopping season. GMV of AUD 4.1 bn during the quarter; active customers are 11.2 mn, up from 9.9m at end of June – ahead of our expectations; and Australia in-store sales are recovering, representing close to 20% of total sales;*Earning Their Stripe: Afterpay had also announced that it had entered into a strategic partnership with Stripe Payments,  a major global payments company with over 100,000 SMBs, to allow its users to offer Afterpay their customers which should allow it to expand its reach among online shoppers; and  *Sprinkling More Fairy Dust: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 358% over the past five months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology buy-now, pay later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

Tencent Holdings - It Keeps Getting Better

As we approach the meat of earnings season this week, we give our take on which tech stocks its worth taking earnings risk on. Yea, we still like Amazon. But Google may be poised for the most explosive earnings reaction.

As we approach the meat of earnings season this week, we give our take on which tech stocks its worth taking earnings risk on. Yea, we still like Amazon. But Google may be poised for the most explosive earnings reaction. 

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

The final U.S. Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden starts soon. Somehow, this debate manages to be highly-important, and largely irrelevant, all at the same time.For Trump, the debate couldn't be more important. Election Day is near and Biden's lead is well just beyond "polling error" at this point. This is Trump's best (and likely last) chance to alter fate but he must do the impossible – i.e., not be the center of attention for the better part of 90 minutes.Strategically, Trump's best bet is to "shut up, man" (a quote from the first debate) and give Biden an opportunity to talk himself into a gaffe or generally come across as that feeble-minded old man of Trump rhetoric. Biden doesn't need to "win" per se, he just needs to "not lose."Barring an epic train wreck, however, the debate will have little impact on the election.Ironically, coronavirus – a debate topic and Trump's Achilles heel – led to unprecedented absentee voting. Nearly 48 million votes are already cast, and cannot be changed. Few remaining voters are undecided. There simply aren't enough swayable voters left for Trump to sway.Still, there is that chance of seeing a good train wreck. And, the debate could matter in other ways; equally as important but with a lower threshold to relevance. Notably, a poor Trump showing could reshape Senate races, increasing the chances of Democrat sweep of Congress. The Blue Wave.This Insight is a prelude to the debate (and any potential post-debate analysis).

The final U.S. Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden starts soon. Somehow, this debate manages to be highly-important, and largely irrelevant, all at the same time.For Trump, the debate couldn't be more important. Election Day is near and Biden's lead is well just beyond "polling error" at this point. This is Trump's best (and likely last) chance to alter fate but he must do the impossible – i.e., not be the center of attention for the better part of 90 minutes.Strategically, Trump's best bet is to "shut up, man" (a quote from the first debate) and give Biden an opportunity to talk himself into a gaffe or generally come across as that feeble-minded old man of Trump rhetoric. Biden doesn't need to "win" per se, he just needs to "not lose."Barring an epic train wreck, however, the debate will have little impact on the election.Ironically, coronavirus – a debate topic and Trump's Achilles heel – led to unprecedented absentee voting. Nearly 48 million votes are already cast, and cannot be changed. Few remaining voters are undecided. There simply aren't enough swayable voters left for Trump to sway.Still, there is that chance of seeing a good train wreck. And, the debate could matter in other ways; equally as important but with a lower threshold to relevance. Notably, a poor Trump showing could reshape Senate races, increasing the chances of Democrat sweep of Congress. The Blue Wave.This Insight is a prelude to the debate (and any potential post-debate analysis).

Final U.S. Presidential Debate: Trump Needs an Epic Biden Blunder for This to Matter

United States

Alphabet, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOG US)

Amazon 3Q20: Amazon $6,000

Amazon's continued success is nothing new, but the pause in the stock grants longer term investors another bite at the apple at $3000...we think...

Aaron Gabin

Spotify 3Q20: We Still Can't Hear You

Spotify gave us another quarter of declining pricing power, middle of the road revenue growth and no disclosures about how podcasting benefits the...

Aaron Gabin

Tencent Holdings - It Keeps Getting Better

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent Keeps hitting The Ball Out of The Park With Afterpay, Who Reported Solid FY 1Q21 Results and Another Partnership

Thomas J. Monaco

3Q20 Best Bets: Mega Cap Wins

Some top of mind thinking about large cap TMT earnings heading into the thick of the meat grinder which is earnings season. We like secular...

Aaron Gabin

Final U.S. Presidential Debate: Trump Needs an Epic Biden Blunder for This to Matter

The final U.S. Presidential debate . Trump needs a big win. Biden just needs to avoid a big loss. In the end, will it even matter? Yes, but perhaps...

Kyle Rudden

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