Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released</li>
<li>Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics </li>
<li>US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released
Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics 
US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36073:1" rel="noopener">K Bank (279570 KS)</a> is a Korean internet bank. It has launched an IPO to raise up to US$734 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/k-bank-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:160037" rel="noopener">K Bank IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/k-bank-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:159133" rel="noopener">K Bank IPO: The Bull Case</a>. 
</li>
<li>We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that K Bank is unattractively valued in the IPO price range. We would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



K Bank (279570 KS) is a Korean internet bank. It has launched an IPO to raise up to US$734 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in K Bank IPO: The Bear Case and K Bank IPO: The Bull Case. 

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that K Bank is unattractively valued in the IPO price range. We would pass on the IPO.


<ul>
<li>While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed</li>
<li>With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%</li>
<li>When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction</li>
</ul>


While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed
With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%
When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction


Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>China M1 and M2 data disappoints and reinforces deflationary risks. Closely watched Consumer Sentiment barometer, new &amp; used prices in top 70 cities, unequivocally weak</li>
<li>. Rise in the dynamic of US auto delinquencies is cause for concern</li>
<li>Corporate caution at investor conferences from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:979:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Co (KO US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa (V US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondelez-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8111:1" rel="noopener">Mondelez International (MDLZ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wendy-s-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2950:1" rel="noopener">Wendy's Co/The (WEN US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19107:1" rel="noopener">Dow (DOW US)</a>, 3M and Campari</li>
</ul>


China M1 and M2 data disappoints and reinforces deflationary risks. Closely watched Consumer Sentiment barometer, new &amp; used prices in top 70 cities, unequivocally weak
. Rise in the dynamic of US auto delinquencies is cause for concern
Corporate caution at investor conferences from Coca Cola Co (KO US) , Visa (V US), Mondelez International (MDLZ US), Wendy's Co/The (WEN US), Dow (DOW US), 3M and Campari


Consumer Weekly. China Macro, US Auto Data, Visa, Coca-Cola, Wendy's, Mondelez, Campari, Ally

<ul>
<li>The Fed's Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new</li>
<li>JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of 'importance to system' so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest</li>
<li>Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared</li>
</ul>


The Fed's Michael Barr has proposed recommendations to adjust Basel III rules, calculations on 11 September, so this is very new
JPM, CITI, BAC, GS, MS, WFC, SST, are G-SIBs in the US in order of 'importance to system' so that JPM is ranked as first and State Street the lowest
Of these banks, only WFC has seen its loans contract over the past two and a half years, which can mean it is marginally better prepared


US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

United States

Ally Financial Inc. is a automotive financial services company powered by a direct banking franchise. The Company operates as a financial holding company.

Price Gauge
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Ally Financial (ALLY US)

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

Weekly balance sheet data for US banks is released every Saturday and the data through 14 June suggests major worsening in credit metrics at large...

Daniel Tabbush

K Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that K Bank is unattractively valued in the IPO price range. We would pass...

Arun George

Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Real rates are too high in the US and they have been rising sharply. This is likely where the the Fed will need to focus when considering rate...

Daniel Tabbush

Consumer Weekly. China Macro, US Auto Data, Visa, Coca-Cola, Wendy's, Mondelez, Campari, Ally

China's weak M1 and M2 data signals deflationary risks, while US auto delinquencies and corporate caution at investor conferences raise concerns.

Neil Campling

US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

New proposals on capital regulations for banks can mean more capital for the largest banks, but there are major differences between the GSIBs.

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

Weekly balance sheet data for US banks is released every Saturday and the data through 14 June suggests major worsening in credit metrics at large...

Daniel Tabbush

K Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that K Bank is unattractively valued in the IPO price range. We would pass...

Arun George

Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Real rates are too high in the US and they have been rising sharply. This is likely where the the Fed will need to focus when considering rate...

Daniel Tabbush

Consumer Weekly. China Macro, US Auto Data, Visa, Coca-Cola, Wendy's, Mondelez, Campari, Ally

​China's weak M1 and M2 data signals deflationary risks, while US auto delinquencies and corporate caution at investor conferences raise concerns.

Neil Campling

US Banks and New Capital Rules - GSIBs 9% More Capital, Can Impact Lending, WFC Stands Out Best

New proposals on capital regulations for banks can mean more capital for the largest banks, but there are major differences between the GSIBs.

Daniel Tabbush

China's weak M1 and M2 data signals deflationary risks, while US auto delinquencies and corporate caution at investor conferences raise concerns.