IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Alliance Aviation Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).</li>
<li>This week, the highest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-enterprises-urban-re" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29131:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).
This week, the highest gross spreads are Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU). 
The lowest gross spreads are Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK), Irongate Group (IAP AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (9 May) - Alliance Aviation, Ramsay Health, Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a> entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a>. Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share, 35.3% premium to 4 May close. </li>
<li>The key risk is approval from the ACCC, which will start a public review. On 5 April, the ACCC closed an investigation into Qantas’ acquisition of its 19.9% Alliance stake. </li>
<li>Alliance Aviation can pay an additional special cash dividend if ACCC approval takes time. The offer is attractive in the context of historical share prices and multiples.</li>
</ul>



Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU) entered a SID with Qantas Airways (QAN AU). Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share, 35.3% premium to 4 May close. 
The key risk is approval from the ACCC, which will start a public review. On 5 April, the ACCC closed an investigation into Qantas’ acquisition of its 19.9% Alliance stake. 
Alliance Aviation can pay an additional special cash dividend if ACCC approval takes time. The offer is attractive in the context of historical share prices and multiples.


Qantas Aims to Fully Acquire Alliance Aviation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a> has entered into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02518444-2A1372231?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme</a> to buy smaller airline <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Alliance shareholders will receive $4.75 in Qantas shares or a 35% premium to last close. The consideration implies an equity value of A$764.5mn and an enterprise value of A$919.2mn.</li>
<li>The Scheme is subject to shareholder and ACCC approval. The ACCC recently cleared Qantas'19.9% stake in Alliance after a three-year investigation.</li>
</ul>



Qantas Airways (QAN AU) has entered into a Scheme to buy smaller airline Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU).
Alliance shareholders will receive $4.75 in Qantas shares or a 35% premium to last close. The consideration implies an equity value of A$764.5mn and an enterprise value of A$919.2mn.
The Scheme is subject to shareholder and ACCC approval. The ACCC recently cleared Qantas'19.9% stake in Alliance after a three-year investigation.


Qantas Enters Scheme With Alliance Aviation

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week. However, trade tensions remain a concern for global markets despite optimism surrounding the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit this week. Therefore, our outlook remains cautious and we expect consolidation to continue as global equities enjoy a bounce off of recent lows. Ultimately, we will need to see more definitive signs of bottoming throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S. before getting positive on global equities.  We provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight attractive set ups in global transportation, communications, and financial sectors

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week. However, trade tensions remain a concern for global markets despite optimism surrounding the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit this week. Therefore, our outlook remains cautious and we expect consolidation to continue as global equities enjoy a bounce off of recent lows. Ultimately, we will need to see more definitive signs of bottoming throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S. before getting positive on global equities.  We provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight attractive set ups in global transportation, communications, and financial sectors

Global Equity Strategy: Bouncing off Lows, China Perking Up

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and emerging market indexes. Our outlook remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation across global equity markets.  We offer technical insights on major markets, and highlight a number of actionable bottoms up ideas.

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and emerging market indexes. Our outlook remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation across global equity markets.  We offer technical insights on major markets, and highlight a number of actionable bottoms up ideas.

Global Equity Strategy: Still Cautious Despite Oversold Conditions

Australia

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. is a mining services company. The Company specializes in providing transportation by air of its mining and energy customers' employees and contractors to and from remote locations, ad hoc charter services - operating commercial air charters servicing the needs of Government and corporate customers, and wet leasing services.

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Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)

Merger Arb Mondays (9 May) - Alliance Aviation, Ramsay Health, Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link

This week, the highest gross spreads are Dongzheng AFC (52.2%), Yashili (30.4%), VNET (29.0%), Sezzle (18.5%), Alliance Aviation (14.7%), Ramsay...

Arun George

Qantas Aims to Fully Acquire Alliance Aviation

Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share. ACCC approval is the key risk. At the last close, the gross spread to...

Arun George

Qantas Enters Scheme With Alliance Aviation

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 7.9%/16.8%, assuming this Scheme takes six months to complete. That looks like a reasonable entry point.

David Blennerhassett

Global Equity Strategy: Bouncing off Lows, China Perking Up

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Still Cautious Despite Oversold Conditions

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and...

Vermilion Research

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