Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> is still suspended from trading and could be deleted from the index in July and replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime (20 HK)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng (881 HK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-pacific-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6177:1" rel="noopener">CPIC (2601 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health (241 HK)</a> in September.</li>
<li>There will be buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH INDEX</a> trackers. But there is also a big lock-up expiry on 29 June.</li>
</ul>



Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) is still suspended from trading and could be deleted from the index in July and replaced by SenseTime Group (20 HK) or PetroChina (857 HK). 

SenseTime (20 HK) or PetroChina (857 HK), Great Wall (2333 HK) and Zhongsheng (881 HK) could replace Haidilao (6862 HK), CPIC (2601 HK) and Alibaba Health (241 HK) in September.
There will be buying on SenseTime Group (20 HK) from HSCEI INDEX and HSTECH INDEX trackers. But there is also a big lock-up expiry on 29 June.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Four Sets of Changes from July to September

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The revenue YoY growth, net profit YoY growth and net profit margin reached a new low in 2021. The performance of Medlive cannot meet the market's expectations of high growth.</li>
<li>The medical knowledge solutions is the cornerstone business and vital to the attractiveness of platform for users. However, this business is not strong enough to make the outlook certain.</li>
<li>In the fierce competition, more efforts are needed on how to convert physician resources into business value continuously. Due to unreliable logic, we are conservative about Medlive at current stage.</li>
</ul>


The revenue YoY growth, net profit YoY growth and net profit margin reached a new low in 2021. The performance of Medlive cannot meet the market's expectations of high growth.
The medical knowledge solutions is the cornerstone business and vital to the attractiveness of platform for users. However, this business is not strong enough to make the outlook certain.
In the fierce competition, more efforts are needed on how to convert physician resources into business value continuously. Due to unreliable logic, we are conservative about Medlive at current stage.


Medlive Technology (2192.HK) - The Logic Has Shaken

JD Health International  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 2021 performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> beat market expectation. The scale of annual active users, commodity SKU, warehouse, logistics, medical resources, etc. all had breakthroughs.</li>
<li>The growth rate and gross margin of service revenue were higher than that of product revenue. So, the performance of service sector can better determine JD Health’s future outlook.</li>
<li>The outlook of online healthcare service is uncertain.Whether successful or not, JD Health still has other businesses to support future development, and is therefore our top pick in this sector.</li>
</ul>


The 2021 performance of JD Health (6618 HK) beat market expectation. The scale of annual active users, commodity SKU, warehouse, logistics, medical resources, etc. all had breakthroughs.
The growth rate and gross margin of service revenue were higher than that of product revenue. So, the performance of service sector can better determine JD Health’s future outlook.
The outlook of online healthcare service is uncertain.Whether successful or not, JD Health still has other businesses to support future development, and is therefore our top pick in this sector.


JD Health (6618.HK) 2021 Results - The Logic and the Outlook

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ping An Health (SEHK:1833) reported 2H2021 earnings on Tuesday after market close. The company’s revenue declined by 14.7% YoY with a 7.5% decline in gross margins.</li>
<li>On a full-year basis, 2021 revenue grew by 6.8% despite a 3.9% decline in gross margins. We are concerned on the slowdown of revenue growth and margin decline.</li>
<li>The company is trading at a significant discount to historical median and peers. Withou clarity regarding segments, we think it is too soon to take a completely negative stance.</li>
</ul>


Ping An Health (SEHK:1833) reported 2H2021 earnings on Tuesday after market close. The company’s revenue declined by 14.7% YoY with a 7.5% decline in gross margins.
On a full-year basis, 2021 revenue grew by 6.8% despite a 3.9% decline in gross margins. We are concerned on the slowdown of revenue growth and margin decline.
The company is trading at a significant discount to historical median and peers. Withou clarity regarding segments, we think it is too soon to take a completely negative stance.


Ping An Health 2021 Results: Is Strategy 2.0 Continuum as Successful as Claimed?

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Based on our analysis, the logic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloudr-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34459:1" rel="noopener">ClouDr Group</a>’s business model is more solid and feasible than that of Ping An Good Doctor, indicating better outlook.</li>
<li>If compared with JD Health and Alibaba Health,besides the sales of pharmacy supplies and hospital supplies, ClouDr also provides hospital/pharmacy SaaS services, indicating wider business scope and broader development space.</li>
<li>In terms of valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neusoft-xikang-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33447:1" rel="noopener">Neusoft Xikang Holdings (NXH HK)</a> is a good comparable company for ClouDr,but investors need to be aware of the market sentiment to new IPOs at that time.</li>
</ul>


Based on our analysis, the logic of ClouDr Group’s business model is more solid and feasible than that of Ping An Good Doctor, indicating better outlook.
If compared with JD Health and Alibaba Health,besides the sales of pharmacy supplies and hospital supplies, ClouDr also provides hospital/pharmacy SaaS services, indicating wider business scope and broader development space.
In terms of valuation, Neusoft Xikang Holdings (NXH HK) is a good comparable company for ClouDr,but investors need to be aware of the market sentiment to new IPOs at that time.


Pre-IPO ClouDr Group - The Logical Business Model Can Support Future Growth

China

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited is an integrated healthcare information and content service provider. The Company uses product identification, authentication, and tracking system data for its healthcare information.

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Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Four Sets of Changes from July to September

There should be one change to the HSCEI in July and then three more in September. Sensetime, Petrochina, GWM and Zhongsheng are expected to replace...

Brian Freitas

Medlive Technology (2192.HK) - The Logic Has Shaken

The medical knowledge solutions is the key cornerstone business but it's still weak. Together with fierce competition and healthcare “rational...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

JD Health (6618.HK) 2021 Results - The Logic and the Outlook

The service revenue has larger potential and is complementary to product revenue.Due to the essence of medical attributes,even if JD Health's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ping An Health 2021 Results: Is Strategy 2.0 Continuum as Successful as Claimed?

It appears that Ping An is trying to downplay the difficulty in transitioning to a new strategy. 2H2021 disclosures offer a large no. of...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Pre-IPO ClouDr Group - The Logical Business Model Can Support Future Growth

The logic of ClouDr is better than Ping An Good Doctor.Whether it can surpass JD Health/Alibaba Health depends on its online mall performance,SaaS...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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