Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba reported a largely in-line December quarter as lower take rate and widened loss from international commerce businesses resulted in pressured bottom line.</li>
<li>The results also suggest a persisting pattern of China consumers trading down, which - along with the company’s ongoing internal overhaul – will continue to be headwind in 1H24.</li>
<li>That said, we see increase of US$25 billion share repurchase program and dividend policy to well support share price at current valuation. </li>
</ul>


Alibaba reported a largely in-line December quarter as lower take rate and widened loss from international commerce businesses resulted in pressured bottom line.
The results also suggest a persisting pattern of China consumers trading down, which - along with the company’s ongoing internal overhaul – will continue to be headwind in 1H24.
That said, we see increase of US$25 billion share repurchase program and dividend policy to well support share price at current valuation. 


Alibaba (BABA US): Upzised Share Repurchase to Support Share Price

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.</li>
<li>We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.</li>
<li>We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.
We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.
We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.


Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

<ul>
<li>Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments.</li>
<li>We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from cost cut to revenue growth.</li>
<li>We set the stock upside at 26% and the price target at HK$91. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments.
We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from cost cut to revenue growth.
We set the stock upside at 26% and the price target at HK$91. Buy.


Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

<ul>
<li>Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023.</li>
<li>Huawei’s shipments increased 36% YoY in 4Q23 and was the only company to witness an increase among the top five sellers.</li>
<li>Jack Ma, the founder, and Mr. Joe Tsai, the chairman, purchased Alibaba’s shares.</li>
</ul>


Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023.
Huawei’s shipments increased 36% YoY in 4Q23 and was the only company to witness an increase among the top five sellers.
Jack Ma, the founder, and Mr. Joe Tsai, the chairman, purchased Alibaba’s shares.


China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).</li>
<li>The indicative weights for the December 2024 index rebal event will be announced later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our updated flow estimates for December 2024. Separately, we have also presented our latest March 2025 index review predictions.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
The indicative weights for the December 2024 index rebal event will be announced later this week on Friday 22nd November 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our updated flow estimates for December 2024. Separately, we have also presented our latest March 2025 index review predictions.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII: ~US$160mn One-Way Flows in Dec 24; 3 ADDs/DELs in Mar 25 Likely

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY, but its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points in 3Q24. We believe the company turned its focus from...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments. We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023. Huawei shipment increased by 36% YoY in 4Q23. The...

Ming Lu

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII: ~US$160mn One-Way Flows in Dec 24; 3 ADDs/DELs in Mar 25 Likely

Easou Technology Holdings (2550 HK) has dropped 80%+ in the last few trading days and is on the verge of missing out on HSIII addition in March 2025.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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Alibaba (BABA US): Upzised Share Repurchase to Support Share Price

While deflationary pressure continues to be headwind for Alibaba in the near term, we expect upsized share repurchase program and dividend policy...

Eric Chen

Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY, but its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points in 3Q24. We believe the company turned its focus from...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments. We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (29 Jan 2024): Great Wall Motor, Huawei, Alibaba, Mixue, Nayuki

Great Wall Motor’s revenue increased by 26%, but its profit increased by less than 5% in 2023. Huawei shipment increased by 36% YoY in 4Q23. The...

Ming Lu

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII: ~US$160mn One-Way Flows in Dec 24; 3 ADDs/DELs in Mar 25 Likely

Easou Technology Holdings (2550 HK) has dropped 80%+ in the last few trading days and is on the verge of missing out on HSIII addition in March 2025.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA