Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Rising bond yields are reflecting less current inflation than growing evidence of supply side bottlenecks; in December, US truckers saw spot rates rise 22% y/y in the haulage market.</li>
<li>Japan intercity trucking rates are rising 10% y/y – even mundane electronic components like capacitators are seeing a tightening market globally.</li>
<li>A key risk this year as highlighted previously is that China makes a policy error by underestimating US resolve to redress trade imbalances as it curtails excess credit…</li>
</ul>


Rising bond yields are reflecting less current inflation than growing evidence of supply side bottlenecks; in December, US truckers saw spot rates rise 22% y/y in the haulage market.
Japan intercity trucking rates are rising 10% y/y – even mundane electronic components like capacitators are seeing a tightening market globally.
A key risk this year as highlighted previously is that China makes a policy error by underestimating US resolve to redress trade imbalances as it curtails excess credit…


Beijing Hubris Risks Policy Error, as Europe Becomes Key For US Yields…

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Internet retailing continues to record robust current value growth of 30% in 2017, to reach CNY3.1 trillion, although this is a deceleration after many years of dramatic growth</li><li>In GBO terms, the top two players, Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com, jointly retain the dominant position in 2017</li><li>Internet retailing is expected to maintain healthy growth over the forecast period, along with improved penetration into rural areas</li></ul>

Internet retailing continues to record robust current value growth of 30% in 2017, to reach CNY3.1 trillion, although this is a deceleration after many years of dramatic growthIn GBO terms, the top two players, Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com, jointly retain the dominant position in 2017Internet retailing is expected to maintain healthy growth over the forecast period, along with improved penetration into rural areas

Sector Capsule: Internet Retailing in China

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global emerging market equity funds. Fund holdings and stock performance are recorded on a monthly basis and annualised to provide absolute and relative performance figures for the year.We find that underweights positions in 'Big Tech' were a key driver of relative underperformance on the year. Sound stock selection in financial stocks generated positive relative returns, and Tencent was the must-have position for 2017.

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global emerging market equity funds. Fund holdings and stock performance are recorded on a monthly basis and annualised to provide absolute and relative performance figures for the year.We find that underweights positions in 'Big Tech' were a key driver of relative underperformance on the year. Sound stock selection in financial stocks generated positive relative returns, and Tencent was the must-have position for 2017.

EM Positioning Review 2017. The Key Drivers of Performance

MD, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Gu Jun, CFA

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

First week into 2018, two developments sent property stocks and related Internet stocks flying:<ol type="1" start="1">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">During the last week of 2017 and first week of 2018, three New 1st Tier Cities (Qingdao, Tianjin and Nanjing), two 2nd Tier Cities (Lanzhou and Hefei)  and several 3rd cities announced relaxation policies “disguised” as “attracting talents”. Market interpreted these cities unable to balance their fiscal budget and must resort to selling land to raise government incomes;</li>
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Inner Mongolia Province (January…</li>
</ol>

First week into 2018, two developments sent property stocks and related Internet stocks flying:
During the last week of 2017 and first week of 2018, three New 1st Tier Cities (Qingdao, Tianjin and Nanjing), two 2nd Tier Cities (Lanzhou and Hefei)  and several 3rd cities announced relaxation policies “disguised” as “attracting talents”. Market interpreted these cities unable to balance their fiscal budget and must resort to selling land to raise government incomes;

Inner Mongolia Province (January…


Local and Central Governments' Tug over Real Estate Reform Will Shape Property and Retail Markets

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> announced in mid December that it would look to enter the Japan mobile industry and would apply for spectrum in the current FY17 allocation in hopes of leveraging its MVNO (currently they have 1.4m subs) to become the fourth mobile operator. It announced plans for a ¥600bn investment out to 2025 with the focus on 4G services. At the time, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1920" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1920">Kirk Boodry</a> thought this would not be overly disruptive. That has not stopped share prices falling at both the incumbents and at Rakuten and…

Rakuten (4755 JP) announced in mid December that it would look to enter the Japan mobile industry and would apply for spectrum in the current FY17 allocation in hopes of leveraging its MVNO (currently they have 1.4m subs) to become the fourth mobile operator. It announced plans for a ¥600bn investment out to 2025 with the focus on 4G services. At the time, Kirk Boodry thought this would not be overly disruptive. That has not stopped share prices falling at both the incumbents and at Rakuten and…

Rakuten's Balance Sheet and Incremental Costs Limit Funding Flexibility as It Plans Mobile Entry

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Beijing Hubris Risks Policy Error, as Europe Becomes Key For US Yields…

Rising bond yields are reflecting less current inflation than growing evidence of supply side bottlenecks; in December, US truckers saw spot rates...

Sean Maher

Sector Capsule: Internet Retailing in China

Internet retailing continues to record robust current value growth of 30% in 2017, to reach CNY3.1 trillion, although this is a deceleration after...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

EM Positioning Review 2017. The Key Drivers of Performance

In order to understand the drivers of performance among EM active managers, we create a portfolio based on the aggregated holdings of 134 global...

Steven Holden

Local and Central Governments' Tug over Real Estate Reform Will Shape Property and Retail Markets

First week into 2018, two developments sent property stocks and related Internet stocks flying: During the last week of 2017 and first week of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Rakuten's Balance Sheet and Incremental Costs Limit Funding Flexibility as It Plans Mobile Entry

Rakuten (4755 JP) announced in mid December that it would look to enter the Japan mobile industry and would apply for spectrum in the current FY17...

New Street Research

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