Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.</li>
<li>KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.</li>
<li>Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.</li>
</ul>


China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.
KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.
Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.


China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

Alibaba Group Holding  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Gold breaks above MONTHLY bull flag suggesting possible move to 3000.</li>
<li>Is China ready to duplicate prior move we witnessed in Nikkei?</li>
<li>BABA looks technically attractive and could reach par by year-end.</li>
</ul>


Gold breaks above MONTHLY bull flag suggesting possible move to 3000.
Is China ready to duplicate prior move we witnessed in Nikkei?
BABA looks technically attractive and could reach par by year-end.


Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BABA reported C1Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (2.7%), 5.5% and in-line vs. consensus. </li>
<li>E-Commerce GMV recovery is the most positive of all. TTG ad-revenues (CMR) trailed GMV growth but we see the two closing the gap in C2H24</li>
<li>Besides stabilizing e-commerce, BABA is on track of transforming itself from China's eBay to China's Microsoft. AI-related cloud revenue grew 100% YoY. </li>
</ul>


BABA reported C1Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (2.7%), 5.5% and in-line vs. consensus. 
E-Commerce GMV recovery is the most positive of all. TTG ad-revenues (CMR) trailed GMV growth but we see the two closing the gap in C2H24
Besides stabilizing e-commerce, BABA is on track of transforming itself from China's eBay to China's Microsoft. AI-related cloud revenue grew 100% YoY. 


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Alibaba reported 1QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB243.2bn, up 3.9% YoY, 2.6% shy of Bloomberg consensus due to reduction of certain direct sales business and softer-than-expected customer management revenue (CMR) growth, while adjusted EBITA/non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB45.0bn/40.3bn, both of which were 6% better than consensus, driven by better-than-expected operating efficiency improvement across nearly all major segments.</li><li>The results demonstrated Alibaba’s capability in driving for operating efficiency improvement across business segment, in our view, and management has illustrated a clear path to drive for monetization improvement of Taobao &amp; Tmall (T&amp;T) Group in the coming quarters.</li><li>Key strategic growth areas such as Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG) and Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) are on track to support Alibaba’s long-term revenue and earnings growth, and the potential dual primary listing in Hong Kong and inclusion into Stock Connect could drive rerating for valuation, in our view. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Alibaba reported 1QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB243.2bn, up 3.9% YoY, 2.6% shy of Bloomberg consensus due to reduction of certain direct sales business and softer-than-expected customer management revenue (CMR) growth, while adjusted EBITA/non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB45.0bn/40.3bn, both of which were 6% better than consensus, driven by better-than-expected operating efficiency improvement across nearly all major segments.The results demonstrated Alibaba’s capability in driving for operating efficiency improvement across business segment, in our view, and management has illustrated a clear path to drive for monetization improvement of Taobao &amp; Tmall (T&amp;T) Group in the coming quarters.Key strategic growth areas such as Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG) and Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) are on track to support Alibaba’s long-term revenue and earnings growth, and the potential dual primary listing in Hong Kong and inclusion into Stock Connect could drive rerating for valuation, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Driving for Monetization Improvement While Maintaining Stabilizing Market Share

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Mixed June quarter results at first glance suggest corporate overhaul strategy is working, with clear evidence Taobao/Tmall is stabilizing in terms of market share and profitability.</li>
<li>Better platform monetization and clear timetable for achieving break-even by non-e-commerce business segments mean double-digit earnings CAGR by FY26 in our view.</li>
<li>We expect Alibaba’s upswing business cycle and moderating headwind of housing market slump are paving the way for the stock’s re-rating in the next 12-24 months. </li>
</ul>


Mixed June quarter results at first glance suggest corporate overhaul strategy is working, with clear evidence Taobao/Tmall is stabilizing in terms of market share and profitability.
Better platform monetization and clear timetable for achieving break-even by non-e-commerce business segments mean double-digit earnings CAGR by FY26 in our view.
We expect Alibaba’s upswing business cycle and moderating headwind of housing market slump are paving the way for the stock’s re-rating in the next 12-24 months. 


China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music

China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24. KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24. Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000...

Ming Lu

Time To Buy China/Gold

Gold breaks above bull flag, China may follow Nikkei's move, BABA could hit par by year-end. Region and the precious metal could power higher into...

Douglas Busch

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY

BABA's Q1 results show strong performance, with e-commerce GMV leading the way and AI-related cloud revenue doubling year-over-year. Transitioning...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US): Strategy at Work

June quarter results show success of overhaul strategy with stabilizing market share and profitability, leading to projected 14% earnings CAGR by...

Eric Chen

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music

China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24. KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24. Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000...

Ming Lu

Time To Buy China/Gold

​Gold breaks above bull flag, China may follow Nikkei's move, BABA could hit par by year-end. Region and the precious metal could power higher into...

Douglas Busch

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY

​BABA's Q1 results show strong performance, with e-commerce GMV leading the way and AI-related cloud revenue doubling year-over-year. Transitioning...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US) - Driving for Monetization Improvement While Maintaining Stabilizing Market Share

Our SOTP based target price was lifted by 1.5% to US$126.9 driven by potentially better monetization outlook from CMR business. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

Alibaba (BABA US): Strategy at Work

June quarter results show success of overhaul strategy with stabilizing market share and profitability, leading to projected 14% earnings CAGR by...

Eric Chen

Gold breaks above bull flag, China may follow Nikkei's move, BABA could hit par by year-end. Region and the precious metal could power higher into...

BABA's Q1 results show strong performance, with e-commerce GMV leading the way and AI-related cloud revenue doubling year-over-year. Transitioning...