Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

RLX Technology Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rlx-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31113:1" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Inc (RLX US)</a> aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of closed-system e-vapor products in terms of retail sales value of 48% in 2019 and 62.6% over 9M20. </p></div><div><p>RLX only sells its e-vapor products in China. As of Sep 2020, it had over 5,000 branded partner stores and sold its products in over 100,000 other retail outlets, covering over 250 cities in China.</p></div><div><p>Even though the company only started operations in 2018, it was already recording sales of around US$330m by 9M20. Margins too have been on an uptrend and operating cash flows have been robust. Moreover, the founding team and investor backing appear strong.</p></div><div><p>However, sales have mostly grown owing to rapid expansion of its distribution network. Furthermore, the brand also appears to have overseas operations but there has been no mention of that in the company’s filings, leaving one to wonder where these operations are housed and who exactly owns them.</p></div><div><p>In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on updates in the new filing.</p></div><div><p><strong>Links to our previous notes:</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-low-penetration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46797" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Low Penetration</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-limited-track-record-and-missing-international-ops" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46836" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Limited Track Record, and Missing International Ops</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-rlx-store-visits-to-relx-and-its-competitors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO (RLX): Store Visits to Relx and Its Competitors</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rlx-technology-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RLX Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation</a></li>
</ul></div>

RLX Technology Inc (RLX US) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of closed-system e-vapor products in terms of retail sales value of 48% in 2019 and 62.6% over 9M20. RLX only sells its e-vapor products in China. As of Sep 2020, it had over 5,000 branded partner stores and sold its products in over 100,000 other retail outlets, covering over 250 cities in China.Even though the company only started operations in 2018, it was already recording sales of around US$330m by 9M20. Margins too have been on an uptrend and operating cash flows have been robust. Moreover, the founding team and investor backing appear strong.However, sales have mostly grown owing to rapid expansion of its distribution network. Furthermore, the brand also appears to have overseas operations but there has been no mention of that in the company’s filings, leaving one to wonder where these operations are housed and who exactly owns them.In our previous note, links to which are below, we have spoke about various aspects of the deal. In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on updates in the new filing.Links to our previous notes:

RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Low Penetration 
RLX Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Limited Track Record, and Missing International Ops
RLX Technology Pre-IPO (RLX): Store Visits to Relx and Its Competitors
RLX Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation


RLX Technology IPO - Valuation Has More than Doubled in Two Months

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>Exports surge with global virus needs </li>
<li>Bonds and defaults in 2021</li>
<li>Rejuvenate China with rural revitalisation</li>
<li>US blacklists more Chinese firms</li>
<li>US and UK ban Xinjiang “forced labour” products </li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That Matters
Exports surge with global virus needs 
Bonds and defaults in 2021
Rejuvenate China with rural revitalisation
US blacklists more Chinese firms
US and UK ban Xinjiang “forced labour” products 
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Exports/ Bonds/ Rural/ US-China/ Xinjiang

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>As the US-listed Chinese tech firms such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amidst the uncertainty surrounding the US policy framework, in this insight, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount/premium behaviour of the 10 most recent secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p>

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms such as Bilibili Inc (BILI US), Tencent Music (TME US), Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US), and JOYY (YY US) rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amidst the uncertainty surrounding the US policy framework, in this insight, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount/premium behaviour of the 10 most recent secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

An Analysis of ADR/HKEX Discount Behavior As The US Listed Chinese Tech Rush To Hong Kong

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Regulatory pressure is driving Ant Group to place its financial operations into a holding company which would be subject to bank-like regulation, as Chinese regulators seek increasing oversight of the fast growth in consumer and SMB debt</li>
<li>Furthermore, and more importantly, press reports indicate that regulators are pushing for Chinese FinTech giants to share their consumer credit data with state entities, to enhance the centralized “big data” repository at the PBoC</li>
<li>The planned launch of the PBoC’s digital currency - the e-yuan – is intended to try to level the playing field between electronic payments leaders Alipay (Ant) and WeChat pay (Tencent) and the bank system, as well as giving the state a powerful tool for digital financial surveillance</li>
<li>For Ant, more bank-like regulation of credit would imply higher capital requirement for its credit operations as well as slower loan growth, with the sharing of Ant Group’s many terabytes of data with the authorities also potentially detracting from Ant Group’s “big data” edge and, by extension, valuation</li>
<li>We take a preliminary stab at a revised SOTP valuation range – despite the lack of clear regulatory parameters so far – of USD130-160bn for Ant Group, a far cry from the market’s estimated USD250bn+ valuation in 4Q20</li>
<li>We see further upside potential in the near term for Chinese SOE banks, as regulators begin to level the regulatory playing filed with FinTech; it is also time, in our view, to look again at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, 33% shareholder in Ant Group</li>
<li>Risks to our negative view on Ant Group include a less aggressive implementation of regulatory rules on Chinese FinTech, and only limited disclosure on its “big data” lake</li>
</ul>


Regulatory pressure is driving Ant Group to place its financial operations into a holding company which would be subject to bank-like regulation, as Chinese regulators seek increasing oversight of the fast growth in consumer and SMB debt
Furthermore, and more importantly, press reports indicate that regulators are pushing for Chinese FinTech giants to share their consumer credit data with state entities, to enhance the centralized “big data” repository at the PBoC
The planned launch of the PBoC’s digital currency - the e-yuan – is intended to try to level the playing field between electronic payments leaders Alipay (Ant) and WeChat pay (Tencent) and the bank system, as well as giving the state a powerful tool for digital financial surveillance
For Ant, more bank-like regulation of credit would imply higher capital requirement for its credit operations as well as slower loan growth, with the sharing of Ant Group’s many terabytes of data with the authorities also potentially detracting from Ant Group’s “big data” edge and, by extension, valuation
We take a preliminary stab at a revised SOTP valuation range – despite the lack of clear regulatory parameters so far – of USD130-160bn for Ant Group, a far cry from the market’s estimated USD250bn+ valuation in 4Q20
We see further upside potential in the near term for Chinese SOE banks, as regulators begin to level the regulatory playing filed with FinTech; it is also time, in our view, to look again at Alibaba Group (BABA US), 33% shareholder in Ant Group
Risks to our negative view on Ant Group include a less aggressive implementation of regulatory rules on Chinese FinTech, and only limited disclosure on its “big data” lake


Ant Group: Regulatory Pressures Drive the State’s “big Data” Grab, and a Revised SOTP Valuation

Kuaishou Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.</p><p>As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.</p><p>As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: </p><ul>
<li> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-positives-hot-segment-fast-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth</a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kuaishou-technology-pre-ipo-the-negatives-ample-doubts-remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain</a></li>
</ul><p>In this note, I’ll undertake a peer comparison, provide earnings forecasts and talk about valuations. </p>

Kuaishou Technology (KT) is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent, Sequoia China, Baidu, DST Global, Boyu Capital, Temasek and others.As of six months ended Jun 2020, it had 302m daily active users (DAUs), who spent 85 mins on average on the app every day. It also had 776m monthly active users (MAUs) and total e-commerce GMV of RMB109.6bn. On an average 1.1bn short videos were uploaded on its app during 1H20.As per iResearch, Kuaishou was globally the largest live streaming platform by gross billings from virtual gifting and average live streaming MPUs, the second largest short video platform by average DAUs, and the second largest live streaming e-commerce platform by GMV, over six months ended June 30, 2020.I have covered various aspects of the company’s performance in my previous notes: 
 Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Positives - Hot Segment, fast growth

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ample Doubts Remain
In this note, I’ll undertake a peer comparison, provide earnings forecasts and talk about valuations. 

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

RLX Technology IPO - Valuation Has More than Doubled in Two Months

RLX Technology (RLX US) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its US listing. RLX is the largest branded e-vapor company in China with a market share of...

Sumeet Singh

Exports/ Bonds/ Rural/ US-China/ Xinjiang

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

An Analysis of ADR/HKEX Discount Behavior As The US Listed Chinese Tech Rush To Hong Kong

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount behaviour of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Ant Group: Regulatory Pressures Drive the State’s “big Data” Grab, and a Revised SOTP Valuation

Ant Group is under great state focus and under pressure to share its many terabytes of "big data" with PBoC, hurting its SOTP valuation; yet,...

Victor Galliano

Kuaishou Technology Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Kuaishou is a content community and social platform that is looking to raise around US$5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by Tencent,...

Sumeet Singh

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