Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Reuters reported last week that the Chinese city of Tianjin has asked government firms to migrate their data from private sector operators like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> to a state-backed cloud system called “guoziyun” by next year. The decision to exclude private cloud platforms was made under direct instructions by China's cabinet, the State Council and it prohibits government firms from entering or renewing contracts with third-party cloud platforms for the use of cloud services.</p><p>It seems like the intention of the Chinese government is to follow through with all the proposed policy changes regardless of the devastating impact on the Chinese tech sector valuations.</p><p>Even though the valuations have dropped drastically from the peak, valuation multiples have plenty of room to the downside. Meanwhile, we think regulatory clampdowns are yet to reach the home stretch, making the risk-reward balance still heavily skewed to the risk side. Thus, we think it is prudent to avoid investing in the Chinese tech sector for the time being.</p>

Reuters reported last week that the Chinese city of Tianjin has asked government firms to migrate their data from private sector operators like Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) to a state-backed cloud system called “guoziyun” by next year. The decision to exclude private cloud platforms was made under direct instructions by China's cabinet, the State Council and it prohibits government firms from entering or renewing contracts with third-party cloud platforms for the use of cloud services.It seems like the intention of the Chinese government is to follow through with all the proposed policy changes regardless of the devastating impact on the Chinese tech sector valuations.Even though the valuations have dropped drastically from the peak, valuation multiples have plenty of room to the downside. Meanwhile, we think regulatory clampdowns are yet to reach the home stretch, making the risk-reward balance still heavily skewed to the risk side. Thus, we think it is prudent to avoid investing in the Chinese tech sector for the time being.

Alibaba Cloud: Near-Zero Dollars Valuation Is Not Entirely Impossible

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>China allocations among Global active managers have fallen to below pre 2017 levels.  Average holding weights among the 381 funds in our analysis dropped to 3.76%, underweight the MSCI All Country World index by -1.18% with just 28.3% overweight the benchmark. </p><p>This allocation drop is in stark contrast to what is occurring in the USA, with allocations powering to all-time highs of 53.70%.  The difference between US and China weights are at all-time wides.</p><p>The most widely held stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, with the trio accounting for 40.6% of total China allocations.  </p><p>If Global managers are to increase weights in China, they will likely have to broaden their investment horizons.  Comparing Global stock holdings in China with their Global Emerging Market peers suggests a number of stocks that could enter the radar of Global investors.  We highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> as stocks lightly held by Global managers but well invested by EM active funds.</p>

China allocations among Global active managers have fallen to below pre 2017 levels.  Average holding weights among the 381 funds in our analysis dropped to 3.76%, underweight the MSCI All Country World index by -1.18% with just 28.3% overweight the benchmark. This allocation drop is in stark contrast to what is occurring in the USA, with allocations powering to all-time highs of 53.70%.  The difference between US and China weights are at all-time wides.The most widely held stocks are Alibaba Group (BABA US), AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and Tencent (700 HK), with the trio accounting for 40.6% of total China allocations.  If Global managers are to increase weights in China, they will likely have to broaden their investment horizons.  Comparing Global stock holdings in China with their Global Emerging Market peers suggests a number of stocks that could enter the radar of Global investors.  We highlight Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) , Meituan (3690 HK) and JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) as stocks lightly held by Global managers but well invested by EM active funds.

Global Funds China Fall:  Gap to US Largest in History

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. </p><p><strong><em>Companies mentioned this week:</em></strong></p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a></p>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:BYD (1211 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), DiDi Global (DIDI US), Pinduoduo (PDD US), TSMC (2330 TT), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 27 August 2021

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Financials and Communication Services sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11028:1" rel="noopener">Toto Ltd (5332 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano Inc (7309 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshinbo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10561:1" rel="noopener">Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Information Technology, Industrials and Health Care sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-heavy-industries-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7389:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ta-chen-stainless-pipe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2519:1" rel="noopener">TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), JD Health (6618 HK) and CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), BYD (1211 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) and Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK). Shorts increased in the Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Financials and Communication Services sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP), Toto Ltd (5332 JP) and Shimano Inc (7309 JP) while there was short covering on Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP), Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP), freee (4478 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP). Shorts increased in the Information Technology, Industrials and Health Care sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), LG Display (034220 KS), HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS), Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). In Taiwan, shorts increased on Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), Innolux Corp (3481 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT) while shorts covered on Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Asia Cement (1102 TT), Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT).

Asia Shorts: Shenzhou, Xiaomi, BABA, BYD, Renesas, Shionogi, Freee, Celltrion, LGD, Novatek, Wan Hai

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<p>Virtuous circle themes of Vision Fund IPOs, ongoing buybacks/MBOs and Alibaba expansion have been replaced by vicious circle narratives of China regulation, the reality of weak liquidity events and another pause in returns to shareholders. The net result is Softbank trades at a similar price and discount to what it did in September last year even as NASDAQ has climbed 25%. The sell off in Softbank shares since Q4 results in May was initially driven by disappointment on a buyback but the discount has stabilized and recent weakness reflects erosion in the underlying value/share.     </p>

Virtuous circle themes of Vision Fund IPOs, ongoing buybacks/MBOs and Alibaba expansion have been replaced by vicious circle narratives of China regulation, the reality of weak liquidity events and another pause in returns to shareholders. The net result is Softbank trades at a similar price and discount to what it did in September last year even as NASDAQ has climbed 25%. The sell off in Softbank shares since Q4 results in May was initially driven by disappointment on a buyback but the discount has stabilized and recent weakness reflects erosion in the underlying value/share.     

Softbank Group - The Great Unwinding Has Shifted from the Discount to Underlying Value

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Alibaba Cloud: Near-Zero Dollars Valuation Is Not Entirely Impossible

The Chinese government’s appetite for control of data regarding its citizens is bad news for Alibaba Could as it could possibly create a state...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Global Funds China Fall: Gap to US Largest in History

China allocations among Global active funds have fallen to below pre 2017 levels. Average holding weights among the 381 funds in our analysis...

Steven Holden

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 27 August 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Asia Shorts: Shenzhou, Xiaomi, BABA, BYD, Renesas, Shionogi, Freee, Celltrion, LGD, Novatek, Wan Hai

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Softbank Group - The Great Unwinding Has Shifted from the Discount to Underlying Value

Virtuous circle themes have been replaced by vicious circle narratives and share price weakness is now driven by declines in asset value with BABA...

Kirk Boodry

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