China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described</li>
<li>We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.</li>
<li>However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.</li>
</ul>


Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described
We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.
However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.


Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Daniel Zhang's transition to a less prominent role within Alibaba's Cloud business, after previously serving as CEO and Chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, could be seen as a demotion.</li>
<li>We suspect that there could be some government influence on these proposed leadership changes.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, the situation is not encouraging, especially as the company enters a turbulent phase with multiple units poised to pursue IPOs in the near future.</li>
</ul>


Daniel Zhang's transition to a less prominent role within Alibaba's Cloud business, after previously serving as CEO and Chairman of Alibaba Group (9988 HK), could be seen as a demotion.
We suspect that there could be some government influence on these proposed leadership changes.
Nonetheless, the situation is not encouraging, especially as the company enters a turbulent phase with multiple units poised to pursue IPOs in the near future.


Alibaba's Chairman & CEO, Daniel Zang Faces a Downgrade

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sml-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36102:1" rel="noopener">SML Group (SMLGZ HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>SML Group (SMLG) is a vertically integrated digital identification solutions provider. It primarily engages in developing, manufacturing and selling label and tag products with radio frequency identification (RFID).</li>
<li>SMLG’s revenue growth rebounded post-COVID on the back of improved consumer sentiment. However, the firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it has undertaken additional debt to payout dividends.</li>
</ul>



SML Group (SMLGZ HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
SML Group (SMLG) is a vertically integrated digital identification solutions provider. It primarily engages in developing, manufacturing and selling label and tag products with radio frequency identification (RFID).
SMLG’s revenue growth rebounded post-COVID on the back of improved consumer sentiment. However, the firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it has undertaken additional debt to payout dividends.


SML Group Pre-IPO - Guided Decline in Profitability but Spike in Dividend Payout

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Mobvoi, the innovative Chinese AI company backed by Google, Volkswagen Group, and top-tier VC firms, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company plans to raise between $200M and $300M. </li>
<li>Mobvoi is a rapidly growing AI unicorn. Revenue from AI software solutions skyrocketed 400%+ y/y in 2022. The company will launch AI painting assistant and AI writing assistant 2.0. soon.</li>
<li>China-Based startup chose CICC and CMB international to tap capital markets to develop universal LLM, market expansion, strategic alliances, acquisitions, and working capital. </li>
</ul>


Mobvoi, the innovative Chinese AI company backed by Google, Volkswagen Group, and top-tier VC firms, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company plans to raise between $200M and $300M. 
Mobvoi is a rapidly growing AI unicorn. Revenue from AI software solutions skyrocketed 400%+ y/y in 2022. The company will launch AI painting assistant and AI writing assistant 2.0. soon.
China-Based startup chose CICC and CMB international to tap capital markets to develop universal LLM, market expansion, strategic alliances, acquisitions, and working capital. 


Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>We expect June quarter results to beat consensus and demonstrate a balanced growth across topline and bottom-line.</li>
<li>During a time when headlines drive BABA share price, it is more important to stay grounded in numbers, see what is in price and make trades accordingly.</li>
<li>We maintain US$500 billion target market cap on 20x RMB180 billion non-GAAP net profit by FY25.</li>
</ul>


We expect June quarter results to beat consensus and demonstrate a balanced growth across topline and bottom-line.
During a time when headlines drive BABA share price, it is more important to stay grounded in numbers, see what is in price and make trades accordingly.
We maintain US$500 billion target market cap on 20x RMB180 billion non-GAAP net profit by FY25.


Alibaba (BABA US): Watch Headlines and Stay Grounded in Numbers

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba's Chairman & CEO, Daniel Zang Faces a Downgrade

The Chinese government's influence on Alibaba's leadership changes becomes apparent when looking back at Jack Ma's retirement as Chairman and the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

SML Group Pre-IPO - Guided Decline in Profitability but Spike in Dividend Payout

SML Group (SMLGZ HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it...

Ethan Aw

Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

TicWatch maker and provider of generative AI and interactive voice technologies, Mobvoi, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The AI company plans to raise...

Andrei Zakharov

Alibaba (BABA US): Watch Headlines and Stay Grounded in Numbers

We expect Alibaba to deliver a balanced growth for June quarter results which will beat consensus. We advise investors to stay grounded in numbers...

Eric Chen

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