Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In</h2><p>After 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd performance on Taiwan semiconductor index (TWSESCI Index) at 18x P/E driven largely by GPU guys for cloud AI training and Cryptocurrency mining, EUV related equipment vendors, memory price hiking for shortage, cloud vendors web service expansion, fuel car migration to EV/autonomous and surely new features on smartphone (3D sensing, wireless charging…</p>

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd performance on Taiwan semiconductor index (TWSESCI Index) at 18x P/E driven largely by GPU guys for cloud AI training and Cryptocurrency mining, EUV related equipment vendors, memory price hiking for shortage, cloud vendors web service expansion, fuel car migration to EV/autonomous and surely new features on smartphone (3D sensing, wireless charging…

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.</li>
<li>It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.</li>
<li>I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…</li>
</ul>


The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.
It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.
I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…


Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<p>This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.</p><p>It is extracted from CM Research's "Tech and Media Trends 2018" report, which covers the top 600 TMT stocks globally and all the investment themes driving their earnings. Using our unique "thematic engine", we quantify the impact of these themes on each of our 18 TMT subsectors, of which semiconductors is one.</p>

This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.It is extracted from CM Research's "Tech and Media Trends 2018" report, which covers the top 600 TMT stocks globally and all the investment themes driving their earnings. Using our unique "thematic engine", we quantify the impact of these themes on each of our 18 TMT subsectors, of which semiconductors is one.

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading has frozen in China</h2><p>Few days after China declared war against bitcoin and other digital currencies by banning cryptocurrency fundraising and shutting down top three cryptocurrency exchanges (OKCoin, BTC China, Huobi) along with over 10 other smaller ones a few days back, SZZC (上海海楓藤) yesterday announced to shut down its cryptocurrency trading business by 30 September. Also, most of the senior managers at these cryptocurrency exchanges are asked not to leave…</p>

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading has frozen in ChinaFew days after China declared war against bitcoin and other digital currencies by banning cryptocurrency fundraising and shutting down top three cryptocurrency exchanges (OKCoin, BTC China, Huobi) along with over 10 other smaller ones a few days back, SZZC (上海海楓藤) yesterday announced to shut down its cryptocurrency trading business by 30 September. Also, most of the senior managers at these cryptocurrency exchanges are asked not to leave…

Bitcoin Trading Frozen in China - Negative to Cryptocurrency Mining Related Vendors

<h2>AI is the next big computing wave. </h2><p>After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make another transition: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the next computing wave. As demand for chips from the PC and smartphone industry subsides, demand for high-end processors to power AI-based platforms such as voice interfaces, robots, augmented reality, driverless cars, smart homes and advanced cybersecurity systems will rise.<br>This new semiconductor industry is led by Microsoft, Google, Apple and Huawei. They increasingly tell their merchant suppliers what chips to make or do it better themselves, building custom, algorithmic chips and creating their own AI supercomputers in the Cloud.</p><p>And Intel has got the message.</p><p>So how should investors respond?</p>

AI is the next big computing wave. After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make another transition: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the next computing wave. As demand for chips from the PC and smartphone industry subsides, demand for high-end processors to power AI-based platforms such as voice interfaces, robots, augmented reality, driverless cars, smart homes and advanced cybersecurity systems will rise. This new semiconductor industry is led by Microsoft, Google, Apple and Huawei. They increasingly tell their merchant suppliers what chips to make or do it better themselves, building custom, algorithmic chips and creating their own AI supercomputers in the Cloud.And Intel has got the message.So how should investors respond?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd...

Andrew Lu

Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to...

Sean Maher

Semiconductor Industry Trends

This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.It is extracted from CM...

CM Research

Semiconductors in the Age of AI

AI is the next big computing wave. After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make...

CM Research

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Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd...

Andrew Lu

Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to...

Sean Maher

Semiconductor Industry Trends

This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.It is extracted from CM...

CM Research

Bitcoin Trading Frozen in China - Negative to Cryptocurrency Mining Related Vendors

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading has frozen in ChinaFew days after China declared war against bitcoin and other digital currencies by banning...

Andrew Lu

Semiconductors in the Age of AI

AI is the next big computing wave. After transitioning from mainframes to PCs to servers to Cloud-based data centres, computing is about to make...

CM Research