TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Intel held a technology roadmap update yesterday...the key changes were literally in name only. We'll believe Intel jumping 5 nodes in 4 years when we see it.</p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Intel held a technology roadmap update yesterday...the key changes were literally in name only. We'll believe Intel jumping 5 nodes in 4 years when we see it.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Intel: Changing Names Doesn’t Accelerate a Roadmap

<p>We remain short Intel. The growth and margin picture is still deteriorating. We don’t think Pat Gelsinger is capable of turning this ship around…and we think the proposed acquisition of Global Foundries may accelerate Intel’s demise.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We remain short Intel. The growth and margin picture is still deteriorating. We don’t think Pat Gelsinger is capable of turning this ship around…and we think the proposed acquisition of Global Foundries may accelerate Intel’s demise.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<p>Intel's rumored bid to acquire GOLBALFOUNDRIES is a good move to achieve the company's current goals, but as this analyst has discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/intel-reveals-plan-to-restore-process-leadership" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a prior Insight</a>, those goals are very difficult to rationalize.</p>

Intel's rumored bid to acquire GOLBALFOUNDRIES is a good move to achieve the company's current goals, but as this analyst has discussed in a prior Insight, those goals are very difficult to rationalize.

Figuring Out the Intel/GLOBALFOUNDRIES Deal

<p>We think its a bonkers idea for Intel to acquire Global Foundries. Unless it wants to accelerate its margin demise. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div>

We think its a bonkers idea for Intel to acquire Global Foundries. Unless it wants to accelerate its margin demise. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The SIA has released May semiconductor revenue statistics and the month broke all records for both revenues and unit shipments.  This is a continuation of the trend that this analyst has been reporting on since this time last year.  It appears that there is still plenty of strength in this market to allow further records to be broken.</p>

The SIA has released May semiconductor revenue statistics and the month broke all records for both revenues and unit shipments.  This is a continuation of the trend that this analyst has been reporting on since this time last year.  It appears that there is still plenty of strength in this market to allow further records to be broken.

May Semiconductor Revenues Break a Record Once Again

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Intel: Changing Names Doesn’t Accelerate a Roadmap

Intel held a technology roadmap update yesterday...the key changes were literally in name only. We'll believe Intel jumping 5 nodes in 4 years when...

Aaron Gabin

Intel 2Q21: Where Do Margins Go?

Intel's growth and margin picture is still deteriorating. We think the proposed acquisition of Global Foundries may accelerate Intel’s demise.

Aaron Gabin

Figuring Out the Intel/GLOBALFOUNDRIES Deal

Should Intel acquire GLOBALFOUNDRIES as has been rumored? While this would help Intel to achieve its stated goals more rapidly, those goals seem...

Jim Handy

Why Would Intel Buy Global Foundries?

We think its a bonkers idea for Intel to acquire Global Foundries. Unless it wants to accelerate its margin demise. We would increase a short...

Aaron Gabin

May Semiconductor Revenues Break a Record Once Again

Even the semiconductors that are not in a dire shortage are in tight supply, driving prices and revenues to extraordinary heights. This Insight...

Jim Handy

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