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Equity Bottom-Up

Thailand continues&nbsp;preparations to auction 900 and 1800 MHZ spectrum in Nov/Dec this year, if all things run to plan. Bidding is likely to come from&nbsp;the existing 3 operators plus potential new entrants, Jasmine (with TOT recently suggesting a bid as well). &nbsp;We expect high prices to be paid given the weak spectrum holdings of no 1 player AIS and the limited amount of spectrum on offer.Looking further ahead, we expect spectrum to shift from concession to full ownership (lease) over the next three years. This will enable operators to be masters of their own destiny and not beholden to the authorities (TOT/CAT), but comes with a cost. It is plausible that the total bill for spectrum could reach $6-8bn. That is equivalent to 10-40% of their market cap and 70-280% of cumulative free cash flow in the period 2015-18.Investors should be aware of risks from the auction process delivering large sums to the government but reducing the attractiveness of the sector. In addition the threat of new entry via these auctions is real.&nbsp; The era of super high returns in Thai Telcos is coming to an end.

Thailand continues&nbsp;preparations to auction 900 and 1800 MHZ spectrum in Nov/Dec this year, if all things run to plan. Bidding is likely to come from&nbsp;the existing 3 operators plus potential new entrants, Jasmine (with TOT recently suggesting a bid as well). &nbsp;We expect high prices to be paid given the weak spectrum holdings of no 1 player AIS and the limited amount of spectrum on offer.Looking further ahead, we expect spectrum to shift from concession to full ownership (lease) over the next three years. This will enable operators to be masters of their own destiny and not beholden to the authorities (TOT/CAT), but comes with a cost. It is plausible that the total bill for spectrum could reach $6-8bn. That is equivalent to 10-40% of their market cap and 70-280% of cumulative free cash flow in the period 2015-18.Investors should be aware of risks from the auction process delivering large sums to the government but reducing the attractiveness of the sector. In addition the threat of new entry via these auctions is real.&nbsp; The era of super high returns in Thai Telcos is coming to an end.

Thai Spectrum auctions could be a  massive cash drain on the telcos

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

Thai Spectrum auctions could be a massive cash drain on the telcos

Thailand continues preparations to auction 900 and 1800 MHZ spectrum in Nov/Dec this year, if all things run to plan. Bidding is likely to come...

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