IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The NBTC Board has confirmed that it will decide on the DTAC/True merger on 20 October as it will receive yet another report from consultants on 14 October. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2412378/regulator-set-to-rule-on-telecom-merger-wednesday" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bangkok Post reported</a> today that NBTC would conclude that it has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the deal but will issue measures to govern it. </li>
<li>The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share price ratio.</li>
</ul>


The NBTC Board has confirmed that it will decide on the DTAC/True merger on 20 October as it will receive yet another report from consultants on 14 October. 
The Bangkok Post reported today that NBTC would conclude that it has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the deal but will issue measures to govern it. 
The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share price ratio.


DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Set to Decide on the Merger on 20 October

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>With near-on nine-month having lapsed since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> submitted an amalgamation report, the NBTC may conclude/clarify a sweeping resolution today.</li>
<li>That resolution, prompted by DTAC and True, is expected to establish the NBTC has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the merger, although remedial measures may be enforced.</li>
<li>Further rumours abound as I type that the NBTC decision may be delayed another week. </li>
</ul>


With near-on nine-month having lapsed since True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) submitted an amalgamation report, the NBTC may conclude/clarify a sweeping resolution today.
That resolution, prompted by DTAC and True, is expected to establish the NBTC has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the merger, although remedial measures may be enforced.
Further rumours abound as I type that the NBTC decision may be delayed another week. 


<ul>
<li>Historically, when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener">Swire (B) (87 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire (A) (19 HK)</a> gets more than 6% from 3mo Avg VWAP Ratio, there is statistically significant reversion. We are now at 6.8%. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP) </a> / WFS transaction appears all stitched up with major shareholder Temasek backing the deal. The acquisition is expected to close in 1Q23, subject to regulatory clearance.   </li>
<li>We had the heads up days (or a week plus) ago, and now it is official. Bain has now launched its Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> at ¥2,181/share.</li>
</ul>


Historically, when Swire (B) (87 HK) / Swire (A) (19 HK) gets more than 6% from 3mo Avg VWAP Ratio, there is statistically significant reversion. We are now at 6.8%. 
The SATS (SATS SP)  / WFS transaction appears all stitched up with major shareholder Temasek backing the deal. The acquisition is expected to close in 1Q23, subject to regulatory clearance.   
We had the heads up days (or a week plus) ago, and now it is official. Bain has now launched its Tender Offer for Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) at ¥2,181/share.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Swire Pacific, SATS/WFS, Hitachi Metal, Jinke Smart, Porsche

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:949:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine International (JAS TB)</a>  is in the home straight to sell its 99.8% interest in Triple T Broadband (TTTBB), and 19% stake in  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-broadband-internet-infrastructure-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:86:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund (JASIF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>With Bt 32.4bn in proceeds coming through the door, JAS would have net cash of ~Bt 24.8bn against a current market cap of ~Bt 24bn.</li>
<li>This sounds like a situation worth a second look. So I look.</li>
</ul>



Jasmine International (JAS TB)  is in the home straight to sell its 99.8% interest in Triple T Broadband (TTTBB), and 19% stake in  Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund (JASIF TB).
With Bt 32.4bn in proceeds coming through the door, JAS would have net cash of ~Bt 24.8bn against a current market cap of ~Bt 24bn.
This sounds like a situation worth a second look. So I look.


Soon-To-Be Cashed-Up Jasmine After Broadband Sale

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:949:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)</a>'s shareholders approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl-ca1a971f-2f70-4565-b1fd-dda5b533acd3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27653:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-broadband-internet-infrastructure-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:86:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.</li>
<li>Separately, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.</li>
</ul>



Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)'s shareholders approved Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB).
The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.
Separately, the DTAC / True merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.


Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Set to Decide on the Merger on 20 October

The current share price ratio of 8.873x vs implied swap ratio of 10.221x is the lowest since the announcement of the potential VTO. Buy the share...

Arun George

True/DTAC: NBTC's Last Roll Of The Dice?

Recommend going long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio. If the deal breaks, you are long DTAC (6.1x forward EV...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Swire Pacific, SATS/WFS, Hitachi Metal, Jinke Smart, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Soon-To-Be Cashed-Up Jasmine After Broadband Sale

The more you dig into JAS, the less likely this is a great investment. JAS is selling its core assets, and deploying the proceeds into business...

David Blennerhassett

Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

I'd still be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info. I believe a more reasonable discount to NAV target is >20%.

David Blennerhassett

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