Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 96% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 29%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 96% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 29%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> is likely to join the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.</li>
<li>Then there should be one change in June with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.</li>
</ul>



Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) is likely to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.
Then there should be one change in June with Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) replacing Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) in the index.
There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 7 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. </li>
<li>The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 7 November, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB).
The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. 
The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. 


Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

SAWAD could be added to the index in March. Then TLI should replace JMART in June. INTUCH is a close delete on liquidity and there are multiple...

Brian Freitas

Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

I'd reverse the stub here and short Intouch, and long AIS. I see no obvious trade on Thaicom. Watch for the special dividend from Intouch.

David Blennerhassett

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