Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>. The rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 30 March and passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on the day.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a> has been included in the index and replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gail-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1" rel="noopener">Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN)</a>. This is in line with what we expected and makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a> the fifth Tata group company to be included in the index.NSE indices have also announced a number of changes to other indices. There are 7 changes to the NIFTY Next 50 (which together with the NIFTY 50 makes up the NIFTY 100) with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gail-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1" rel="noopener">Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mrf-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2930:1" rel="noopener">Mrf Ltd (MRF IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-baroda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:545:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/container-corp-of-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17912:1" rel="noopener">Container Corp of India (CCRI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-ins-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25944:1" rel="noopener">General Insurance Corp Of India (GICRE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oracle-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7775:1" rel="noopener">Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13579:1" rel="noopener">Power Finance (POWF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a>.Changes have also been made to the index methodology. The main change from the perspective of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is that the index reviews will be effective after the close on the second last working day of the review month. The existing methodology specifies that the index review will be effective after the close on the F&amp;O expiry day (last Thursday) of the review month.<div class="content-highlight">This Insight has been marked as Bullish since TATACONS could outperform its peers in the near term.</div>

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX). The rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 30 March and passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on the day.Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) has been included in the index and replaces Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN). This is in line with what we expected and makes Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) the fifth Tata group company to be included in the index.NSE indices have also announced a number of changes to other indices. There are 7 changes to the NIFTY Next 50 (which together with the NIFTY 50 makes up the NIFTY 100) with Adani Enterprises (ADE IN), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN), Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN), Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN), Mrf Ltd (MRF IN), Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) and Yes Bank (YES IN) replacing Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN), Container Corp of India (CCRI IN), General Insurance Corp Of India (GICRE IN), Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN), Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN), Power Finance (POWF IN) and Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN).Changes have also been made to the index methodology. The main change from the perspective of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is that the index reviews will be effective after the close on the second last working day of the review month. The existing methodology specifies that the index review will be effective after the close on the F&amp;O expiry day (last Thursday) of the review month.This Insight has been marked as Bullish since TATACONS could outperform its peers in the near term.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: TATACONS In, GAIL Out; Methodology Changes Too

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 5 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.In the upcoming recategorization in January 2021, we see 6 stocks moved from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 12 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the same number moving the other way. There are quite a few IPOs that will join the small cap list, with just 1 joining the large cap list and 1 joining the mid cap list.Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 5 trillion across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.In the upcoming recategorization in January 2021, we see 6 stocks moved from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment with an equal number of stocks moving the other way, and 12 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment with the same number moving the other way. There are quite a few IPOs that will join the small cap list, with just 1 joining the large cap list and 1 joining the mid cap list.Historically, the stocks migrating upward to a higher market cap segment have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap segment over the 1 month and 2 month period post the publishing of the AMFI list. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

India: AMFI Stock Categorization Changes to Drive Active Portfolio Churn

On 29 May, post India market close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-power-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:247:1">Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN)</a> informed the Exchanges that Adani Properties Private Limited (a member of the Promoter Group) had expressed its intention to acquire all shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-power-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:247:1">Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN)</a> held by the public shareholders and, if successful, delist the company from the Stock Exchanges.The Promoter Group holds 74.97% of the equity share capital of the company with the public shareholders holding the remaining 25.03%. However, the public shareholders may not really be 'public' after all. The same shareholder names appear in a lot of Adani group companies leading us to believe that there is more than meets the eye.The floor price (VWAP over the last 60 trading days prior to the company announcement of the delisting) works out to INR 33.8078 and is at a premium to the stock price over the last month but at a big discount to longer term prices and VWAPs.We feel that the Promoter Group has this almost sewn up and there will not be a massive premium to the current market price. Investors can buy stock up to INR 36-38 per share expecting to tender their shares around the INR 42-44 per share range.

On 29 May, post India market close, Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN) informed the Exchanges that Adani Properties Private Limited (a member of the Promoter Group) had expressed its intention to acquire all shares of Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN) held by the public shareholders and, if successful, delist the company from the Stock Exchanges.The Promoter Group holds 74.97% of the equity share capital of the company with the public shareholders holding the remaining 25.03%. However, the public shareholders may not really be 'public' after all. The same shareholder names appear in a lot of Adani group companies leading us to believe that there is more than meets the eye.The floor price (VWAP over the last 60 trading days prior to the company announcement of the delisting) works out to INR 33.8078 and is at a premium to the stock price over the last month but at a big discount to longer term prices and VWAPs.We feel that the Promoter Group has this almost sewn up and there will not be a massive premium to the current market price. Investors can buy stock up to INR 36-38 per share expecting to tender their shares around the INR 42-44 per share range.

Adani Power Delisting - Going Off The Grid

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

On Friday 29 May, late-ish in the afternoon, the Board of India's largest private sector IPP, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:247:1" rel="noopener">Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN)</a>, released a <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/b45ba492-c58a-4d04-b744-ff4d63578ed7.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a> that said the promoter group wanted to propose a Delisting Offer to the remaining 25.03% of the shareholder base not linked to the promoter group. 
The board meeting to consider the Delisting Proposal is on 3 June 2020.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/929/original/Screenshot%202020-05-30%20at%2011.26.31%20AM.png?1590809207" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136929"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">source: <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/b45ba492-c58a-4d04-b744-ff4d63578ed7.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Delisting Proposal Board Meeting Intimation</a>
</div>
This notice creates the reference date for the Floor Price, which I expect will be communicated shortly, but for which rough calculations are provided below. 
This is the first time that the Adani promoter group has sought to delist one of its many listed enterprises (which also include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-gas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28352:1" rel="noopener">Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-transmission-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26712:1" rel="noopener">Adani Transmission (ADANIT IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:246:1" rel="noopener">Adani Ports &amp; Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)</a>, Adani Green Energy, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>).
This looks like a straightforward delisting offer situation of a widely-known stock. It may not be so straightforward. And that would have an effect on the likely Reverse Book Building process. 
As always, more below the fold.

On Friday 29 May, late-ish in the afternoon, the Board of India's largest private sector IPP, Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN), released a statement that said the promoter group wanted to propose a Delisting Offer to the remaining 25.03% of the shareholder base not linked to the promoter group. 
The board meeting to consider the Delisting Proposal is on 3 June 2020.

source: Delisting Proposal Board Meeting Intimation

This notice creates the reference date for the Floor Price, which I expect will be communicated shortly, but for which rough calculations are provided below. 
This is the first time that the Adani promoter group has sought to delist one of its many listed enterprises (which also include Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN), Adani Transmission (ADANIT IN), Adani Ports &amp; Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN), Adani Green Energy, and Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)).
This looks like a straightforward delisting offer situation of a widely-known stock. It may not be so straightforward. And that would have an effect on the likely Reverse Book Building process. 
As always, more below the fold.

Adani Power - The Next Delisting/Exit Offer?

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the Indian indices are burning coupled with lack of a stern banking system simply aids in the macroeconomic woes of the country. Through this insight, we try to figure out reasons some of the Indian heavyweight entities that could be exposed naked to the risk of bankruptcy in the wake of upcoming recession which has more chances of 'mights' than 'might nots'.

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the Indian indices are burning coupled with lack of a stern banking system simply aids in the macroeconomic woes of the country. Through this insight, we try to figure out reasons some of the Indian heavyweight entities that could be exposed naked to the risk of bankruptcy in the wake of upcoming recession which has more chances of 'mights' than 'might nots'.

High Distress Levels: Indian Companies Caught Off-Guard

India

Adani Enterprises Limited is an international trading house that operates from offices in India as well as other countries. The Company is involved in coal mining, cargo handling and power generation.  Adani also trades in a large number of products including textiles, energy, metals and agricultural products.

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Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: TATACONS In, GAIL Out; Methodology Changes Too

TATACONS has been added to the NIFTY50 replacing GAIL. There are changes to a bunch of other indices too and methodology changes which shift the...

Brian Freitas

India: AMFI Stock Categorization Changes to Drive Active Portfolio Churn

The reclassification of stocks to large, mid and small cap will set off a churn in mutual fund portfolios where historically stocks migrating...

Brian Freitas

Adani Power Delisting - Going Off The Grid

On 29 May, post India market close, Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN) informed the Exchanges that Adani Properties Private Limited (a member of the...

Brian Freitas

Adani Power - The Next Delisting/Exit Offer?

On Friday 29 May, late-ish in the afternoon, the Board of India's largest private sector IPP, Adani Power Ltd (ADANI IN), released a statement that...

Travis Lundy

High Distress Levels: Indian Companies Caught Off-Guard

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the...

Nitin Mangal

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