Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

On the Road in India: Infrastructure Building, Industrial Acumen and the Buzz of Rapid Expansion

JSW Steel: A Race of EBITDA Against Debt

JSW Steel: Moody's Premature Rating Upgrade

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

Here at last comes Make in India, and the world's fastest-growing major economy is set for a cyclical acceleration in September 2016-March 2017. India's exports resumed growing in June, up 1.3% YoY; they were up 3.2% YoY in rupee terms for the April-June quarter, the first quarterly increase after 5 quarters of export contraction. With US demand gaining momentum (as suggested by ISM new orders over the past 4 months), India's exports should accelerate through the rest of 2016.India's exports of goods and services expanded 19-fold in the first 20 years after 1991, then decelerated for 3 years, and declined outright in 2015 and 1Q2016. That cyclical drag is now ending. There already were pockets of double-digit growth in industry (office/computer equipment, medical/precision equipment, consumer electronics &amp; communication equipment all expanded output by 15-19% YoY in February-May 2016); the outdated IIP under-estimates the momentum in India's manufacturing, which is better captured by the new GDP series (but cyclical momentum was still constrained by weak exports). As exports gain strength, and are complemented by rural demand helped by the first good monsoon in 3 years, India's manufacturing revival will gain strength -- and real GDP should grow over 8% YoY in 2H FY2016/17.The cyclical rebound will be aided by an improving macroeconomic backdrop. With imports still declining much more than exports (helped by the terms-of-trade gain from falling oil prices), the 4-quarter moving average of the current account deficit narrowed to 1.1% of GDP in FY2015/16 and is likely to narrow further to 0.4% of GDP by June 2016. The export revival is likely to deliver a current account surplus in the April-June quarter and for the whole of FY2016/17, allowing the Indian rupee to outperform other emerging market currencies over the next 6-8 months. Stay Overweight in India.

Here at last comes Make in India, and the world's fastest-growing major economy is set for a cyclical acceleration in September 2016-March 2017. India's exports resumed growing in June, up 1.3% YoY; they were up 3.2% YoY in rupee terms for the April-June quarter, the first quarterly increase after 5 quarters of export contraction. With US demand gaining momentum (as suggested by ISM new orders over the past 4 months), India's exports should accelerate through the rest of 2016.India's exports of goods and services expanded 19-fold in the first 20 years after 1991, then decelerated for 3 years, and declined outright in 2015 and 1Q2016. That cyclical drag is now ending. There already were pockets of double-digit growth in industry (office/computer equipment, medical/precision equipment, consumer electronics &amp; communication equipment all expanded output by 15-19% YoY in February-May 2016); the outdated IIP under-estimates the momentum in India's manufacturing, which is better captured by the new GDP series (but cyclical momentum was still constrained by weak exports). As exports gain strength, and are complemented by rural demand helped by the first good monsoon in 3 years, India's manufacturing revival will gain strength -- and real GDP should grow over 8% YoY in 2H FY2016/17.The cyclical rebound will be aided by an improving macroeconomic backdrop. With imports still declining much more than exports (helped by the terms-of-trade gain from falling oil prices), the 4-quarter moving average of the current account deficit narrowed to 1.1% of GDP in FY2015/16 and is likely to narrow further to 0.4% of GDP by June 2016. The export revival is likely to deliver a current account surplus in the April-June quarter and for the whole of FY2016/17, allowing the Indian rupee to outperform other emerging market currencies over the next 6-8 months. Stay Overweight in India.      

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

Pipavav Defence And Offshore Eng (RDEL IN)

Schneider Electric Infrastructure (SCHN IN)

Techno Electric & Engineering Co., Ltd. (TEEC IN)

Export-Led Recovery to Spur Industry's Many Pockets of Strength