Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-pharmaceutical-industries-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:98:1" rel="noopener">Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN)</a> Q2FY25 net profit jumped 28% YoY to INR30B on 11% YoY growth in revenue. U.S. and India formulation businesses grew 22% and 11%, YoY, respectively.</li>
<li>Due to deferral of clinical trials of some specialty products, the company has cut R&amp;D investment guidance by 200bps to 7–8% of revenue for FY25 from earlier 8–10%.</li>
<li>With Leqselvi launch becoming uncertain and few others still in late-stage trials, there is no immediate driver to accelerate specialty business momentum.</li>
</ul>



Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) Q2FY25 net profit jumped 28% YoY to INR30B on 11% YoY growth in revenue. U.S. and India formulation businesses grew 22% and 11%, YoY, respectively.
Due to deferral of clinical trials of some specialty products, the company has cut R&amp;D investment guidance by 200bps to 7–8% of revenue for FY25 from earlier 8–10%.
With Leqselvi launch becoming uncertain and few others still in late-stage trials, there is no immediate driver to accelerate specialty business momentum.


Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Q2 Result Beats Estimate; Specialty Business to Face Growth Challenge

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Beijing Tiantan Biological Products / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tiantan plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhongyuan Ruide from CSL Behring ASIA PACIFIC LIMITED for US$185 million, so as to consolidate its leading position in blood products industry.</li>
<li>BeiGene is accused of trade secrets theft by AbbVie. Considering AbbVie is good at using legal means to profit for itself, this lawsuit may become full of uncertainty in US.</li>
<li>The House passed BIOSECURE Act to make drug companies stop doing business with Chinese CXO.The probability of this Bill passing is high. We recommend prepare for worst-case scenario in advance.</li>
</ul>


Tiantan plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhongyuan Ruide from CSL Behring ASIA PACIFIC LIMITED for US$185 million, so as to consolidate its leading position in blood products industry.
BeiGene is accused of trade secrets theft by AbbVie. Considering AbbVie is good at using legal means to profit for itself, this lawsuit may become full of uncertainty in US.
The House passed BIOSECURE Act to make drug companies stop doing business with Chinese CXO.The probability of this Bill passing is high. We recommend prepare for worst-case scenario in advance.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep15)- Tiantan's New Deal, BeiGene-AbbVie Lawsuit, BIOSECURE Act Will Pass

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

<ul>
<li>Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.</li>
<li>Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.</li>
<li>With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.</li>
</ul>


Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.
Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.
With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.


Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Karuna Therapeutics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.</li>
<li>The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&amp;A deal.</li>
<li>I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.</li>
</ul>


In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.
The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&amp;A deal.
I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.


Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

United States

AbbVie Inc. researches and develops pharmaceutical products. The Company produces pharmaceutical drugs for specialty therapeutic areas such as immunology, chronic kidney disease, Hepatitis C, women's health, oncology, and neuroscience. AbbVie also offers treatments for diseases including Multiple Sclerosis, Parkinson's, and Alzheimer's disease.

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Abbvie Inc (ABBV US)

Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Q2 Result Beats Estimate; Specialty Business to Face Growth Challenge

Sun Pharma Q2FY25 net profit was up 28% YoY on 11% revenue growth. FY25 R&D investment guidance cut due to deferred clinical trials. Specialty...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep15)- Tiantan's New Deal, BeiGene-AbbVie Lawsuit, BIOSECURE Act Will Pass

Tiantan to acquire Zhongyuan Ruide for $185 million from CSL Behring. BeiGene is accused of trade secrets theft by AbbVie. The chances of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; New Risk-Off Signals Suggest Pullback in $SPX and $QQQ to Continue, looking for pullbacks to 5100-5191...

Vermilion Research

Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

I see a strong wave of M&A activity in neuropsychiatry space and think the risk/reward of owning KRTX shares is favorable despite the substantial...

Andrei Zakharov

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Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Q2 Result Beats Estimate; Specialty Business to Face Growth Challenge

​Sun Pharma Q2FY25 net profit was up 28% YoY on 11% revenue growth. FY25 R&D investment guidance cut due to deferred clinical trials. Specialty...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep15)- Tiantan's New Deal, BeiGene-AbbVie Lawsuit, BIOSECURE Act Will Pass

​Tiantan to acquire Zhongyuan Ruide for $185 million from CSL Behring. BeiGene is accused of trade secrets theft by AbbVie. The chances of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; New Risk-Off Signals Suggest Pullback in $SPX and $QQQ to Continue, looking for pullbacks to 5100-5191...

Vermilion Research

Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

I see a strong wave of M&A activity in neuropsychiatry space and think the risk/reward of owning KRTX shares is favorable despite the substantial...

Andrei Zakharov

Sun Pharma Q2FY25 net profit was up 28% YoY on 11% revenue growth. FY25 R&D investment guidance cut due to deferred clinical trials. Specialty...

Tiantan to acquire Zhongyuan Ruide for $185 million from CSL Behring. BeiGene is accused of trade secrets theft by AbbVie. The chances of...