Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this Insight, we review the recent performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6440:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>ABB posted a strong start, SIEM has a black dot with respect to its recent sale of subsidiary. POLYCAB continues to perform, and HAVL is back to capex mode. </li>
<li>Our picks remain the same, ABB instead of SIEM, POLYCAB instead of HAVL.</li>
</ul>


In this Insight, we review the recent performance of ABB India Ltd (ABB IN) , Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) , Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) and Havells India (HAVL IN). 
ABB posted a strong start, SIEM has a black dot with respect to its recent sale of subsidiary. POLYCAB continues to perform, and HAVL is back to capex mode. 
Our picks remain the same, ABB instead of SIEM, POLYCAB instead of HAVL.


India Industrials | Quarterly Update - ABB, SIEM, HAVELLS, POLYCAB

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>AIL reported revenue growth of 7.0% YoY in Q4FY23 (vs. our expectations of 10.7% YoY), which stood below the IPM growth of 11.0% (IPM: Indian Pharma Industry, Source: AIOCD).</li><li>A product mix change, higher proportion towards Anti Diabetic segment, Mixtard and Novomix reported growth of 4.0% and -1.1% on YoY respctively led to lower topline growth.</li><li>Further, growth in other key therapies like Gasteroinsteinal (+11.4% YoY) and Hormones (+27.4% YoY) similar to IPM growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIL reported revenue growth of 7.0% YoY in Q4FY23 (vs. our expectations of 10.7% YoY), which stood below the IPM growth of 11.0% (IPM: Indian Pharma Industry, Source: AIOCD).A product mix change, higher proportion towards Anti Diabetic segment, Mixtard and Novomix reported growth of 4.0% and -1.1% on YoY respctively led to lower topline growth.Further, growth in other key therapies like Gasteroinsteinal (+11.4% YoY) and Hormones (+27.4% YoY) similar to IPM growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Abbott India Ltd - Missed on Topline Growth

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q4FY23 net revenue grew by 11% YoY vs our expectation of 14%</li><li>Volume growth was c.3% (four-year CAGR at 4%)</li><li>BRIT continued to strengthen its market leadership, led by (1) distribution and marketing initiatives (2) portfolio innovation and (3) cost efficiencies</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q4FY23 net revenue grew by 11% YoY vs our expectation of 14%Volume growth was c.3% (four-year CAGR at 4%)BRIT continued to strengthen its market leadership, led by (1) distribution and marketing initiatives (2) portfolio innovation and (3) cost efficienciesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Britannia Industries, ABB India, Marico, Bharat Forge, DCB Bank

India

ABB India Limited undertakes engineering and construction projects and manufactures heavy engineering and industrial equipment. The Company undertakes projects in the field of energy production, power transmission, transportation, process automation and pollution control. ABB India's products include pollution control equipment, switch gears and high current rectifiers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

India Industrials | Quarterly Update - ABB, SIEM, HAVELLS, POLYCAB

ABB strong, SIEM's subsidiary sale a concern. POLYCAB performing, HAVL in capex mode. Picks: ABB over SIEM, POLYCAB over HAVL.

Pranav Bhavsar

Abbott India Ltd - Missed on Topline Growth

AIL reported revenue growth of 7.0% YoY in Q4FY23 (vs. our expectations of 10.7% YoY), which stood below the IPM growth of 11.0% (IPM: Indian...

Axis Direct

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Britannia Industries, ABB India, Marico, Bharat Forge, DCB Bank

Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q4FY23 net revenue grew by 11% YoY vs our expectation of 14%. Volume growth was c.3% (four-year CAGR at 4%)

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)