Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.</li>
<li>The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6440:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.
The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.
While ABB India Ltd (ABB IN) and Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) and Havells India (HAVL IN).  


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The NHAI ordering stayed below the FY23 target, competitive intensity cooling-off, commodities stable: In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn</li><li>With this, the NHAI awarded c.3,750 km in FY23 (vs a target of 6,500 km), with 75 HAM projects worth INR 655bn and 31 EPC projects worth INR 361bn</li><li>Competitive intensity cooled off with average L1 costs at a 5.6% premium over the average NHAI costs in Q4FY23</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The NHAI ordering stayed below the FY23 target, competitive intensity cooling-off, commodities stable: In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bnWith this, the NHAI awarded c.3,750 km in FY23 (vs a target of 6,500 km), with 75 HAM projects worth INR 655bn and 31 EPC projects worth INR 361bnCompetitive intensity cooled off with average L1 costs at a 5.6% premium over the average NHAI costs in Q4FY23Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials -  Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

<ul><li>The NHAI had set a target of awarding 6,500 km in FY23, of which it awarded ~3,750 Km (vs 6,306 Km in FY22) at an NHAI cost of INR 1trn</li><li>Ordering seems to have spilt over to FY24 with our checks suggesting ~INR 350bn of bids expected to be awarded during early H1FY24</li><li>During the year, HAM continued to be its preferred mode of awarding with 75/31/3 projects awarded on HAM/EPC/another basis</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The NHAI had set a target of awarding 6,500 km in FY23, of which it awarded ~3,750 Km (vs 6,306 Km in FY22) at an NHAI cost of INR 1trnOrdering seems to have spilt over to FY24 with our checks suggesting ~INR 350bn of bids expected to be awarded during early H1FY24During the year, HAM continued to be its preferred mode of awarding with 75/31/3 projects awarded on HAM/EPC/another basisContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Infrastructure: Stable awarding; calibrated aggression

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 February, NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. There are 5 adds and 5 deletes. </li>
<li>Last evening, NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&amp;O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from 15% earlier).</li>
<li>This changes the flows at the March rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 March.</li>
</ul>


On 17 February, NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). There are 5 adds and 5 deletes. 
Last evening, NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&amp;O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from 15% earlier).
This changes the flows at the March rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 March.


NIFTY NEXT50 /​ NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

India

ABB India Limited undertakes engineering and construction projects and manufactures heavy engineering and industrial equipment. The Company undertakes projects in the field of energy production, power transmission, transportation, process automation and pollution control. ABB India's products include pollution control equipment, switch gears and high current rectifiers.

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ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)

India Industrials | Riding the Tailwind

India's strong growth projections require deeper analysis. The industrials sector plays a critical role. ABB IN and POLYCAB IN are compelling,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn

HDFC Securities

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn

HDFC Securities

Infrastructure: Stable awarding; calibrated aggression

The NHAI had set a target of awarding 6,500 km in FY23, of which it awarded ~3,750 Km (vs 6,306 Km in FY22) at an NHAI cost of INR 1trn

HDFC Securities

NIFTY NEXT50 / NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Industrials | Riding the Tailwind

India's strong growth projections require deeper analysis. The industrials sector plays a critical role. ABB IN and POLYCAB IN are compelling,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn

HDFC Securities

Industrials - Stable Awards, Pick-Up in Execution

In Q4FY23, the NHAI awarded 74 projects, of which 55 were HAM projects worth INR 455bn and 16 were EPC projects worth INR 215bn

HDFC Securities

Infrastructure: Stable awarding; calibrated aggression

The NHAI had set a target of awarding 6,500 km in FY23, of which it awarded ~3,750 Km (vs 6,306 Km in FY22) at an NHAI cost of INR 1trn

HDFC Securities

NIFTY NEXT50 /​ NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 / NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes