Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.</li>
<li>If you had any <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 

Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:202:1" rel="noopener">United States Steel (X US)</a> have agreed an all-cash $55.00/share offer, 142% premium to where X traded before Cliff's approach, a very generous 7x EV/24e EBITDA.</li>
<li>A determined buyer seeks market share in the lucrative US market, with no meaningful synergies expected and willingness to keep all US Steel jobs and (greener) growth projects.</li>
<li>Although unions and some lawmakers are voicing concerns, CFIUS shouldn't pose a big hurdle. Spread is 12.04%/17.93% (gross/annualised, assuming late settlement by end of Q3 2024). Long.
</li>
</ul>



Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and United States Steel (X US) have agreed an all-cash $55.00/share offer, 142% premium to where X traded before Cliff's approach, a very generous 7x EV/24e EBITDA.
A determined buyer seeks market share in the lucrative US market, with no meaningful synergies expected and willingness to keep all US Steel jobs and (greener) growth projects.
Although unions and some lawmakers are voicing concerns, CFIUS shouldn't pose a big hurdle. Spread is 12.04%/17.93% (gross/annualised, assuming late settlement by end of Q3 2024). Long.



Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Knock-Out Offer

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Overseas: SPX +0.5%, M&amp;A action drives market higher. Fed talks down interest rate cuts.</li>
<li>
Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY 142.9; Japan’s FSA wants to overhaul tender offer rules; Mit Elec to step up cross-share unwind</li>
<li>
Japan: Nippon Steel's $15bn acquisition of U.S. Steel is a bold move; it secures a top-three global position &amp; substantial share in the EV e-steel market.</li>
</ul>



Overseas: SPX +0.5%, M&amp;A action drives market higher. Fed talks down interest rate cuts.

Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY 142.9; Japan’s FSA wants to overhaul tender offer rules; Mit Elec to step up cross-share unwind

Japan: Nippon Steel's $15bn acquisition of U.S. Steel is a bold move; it secures a top-three global position &amp; substantial share in the EV e-steel market.


Ohayo Japan | Nippon Steel Forges Ahead with Deal for U.S. Steel

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> is getting WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after just +1 week up. Rallying further during the next 2-3 weeks may be hard, it could stall or fall.</li>
<li>If the index rallies further this week, it could fall the following week. Alternatively it could stall this week and rally the following week/s, but OVERBOUGHT status won't go away.</li>
<li>34256 is the Q3 resistance target on CC=+3, this should be a hard barrier to breach. An earlier barrier is Q3 resistance on the Gen.Pattern Boxplot = 33835.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX is getting WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after just +1 week up. Rallying further during the next 2-3 weeks may be hard, it could stall or fall.
If the index rallies further this week, it could fall the following week. Alternatively it could stall this week and rally the following week/s, but OVERBOUGHT status won't go away.
34256 is the Q3 resistance target on CC=+3, this should be a hard barrier to breach. An earlier barrier is Q3 resistance on the Gen.Pattern Boxplot = 33835.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>On 5 September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE Holdings (5411 JP)</a> saw an article out of a capital raising. It was confirmed later in the day. Huge volumes traded. The stock fell sharply.</li>
<li>The offering supply/demand dynamics are.... complicated. The offering is to foreign instos. The net demand is probably mostly retail and index, and positioning is... also complicated.</li>
<li>The EPS dilution is already accounted for. The fall against Nippon Steel pretty much does it after considering the discount expected. </li>
</ul>


On 5 September, JFE Holdings (5411 JP) saw an article out of a capital raising. It was confirmed later in the day. Huge volumes traded. The stock fell sharply.
The offering supply/demand dynamics are.... complicated. The offering is to foreign instos. The net demand is probably mostly retail and index, and positioning is... also complicated.
The EPS dilution is already accounted for. The fall against Nippon Steel pretty much does it after considering the discount expected. 


JFE Holdings (5411) - Volume Patterns Indicate Possible Squeeziness

Japan

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. develops and mines non-ferrous metals in Japan and overseas.  The Company's primary products include copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, and zinc.  The Company refines, produces, and sells precious metals.  Sumitomo Metal Mining also produces and markets electronic & housing construction materials and provides civil engineering works.

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

DOWA HOLDINGS, CO., LTD. mines, refines, smelts, and produces various metalrelated products.  The Company's main products include minerals, precious metals, battery materials, semiconductor and superconductivity materials, magnetic materials, and optical devices.

MITSUBISHI MATERIALS CORPORATION manufactures and processes non-ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver.  The Company also produces other products such as cement, aluminum cans, silicon, fine chemicals, and electronic materials.  Ube Industries, an affiliate, sells cement products.

YAMATO KOGYO CO., LTD. manufactures, processes, and markets a wide variety of railroad related and steel products.  The Company also provides heavy industry processing for shipbuilding and plant engineering.  Yamato Kogyo has operations through joint-ventures and subsidiaries in the United States, Thailand, and the Bahamas.

DAIDO STEEL CO., LTD. manufactures and markets specialty steel products for automobiles, electronics, and construction use.  The Company also provides engineering services for industrial furnaces and waste disposal facilities, and develops various types of alloy metals.

Mitsui Mining & Smelting Company, Limited mainly produces non-ferrous metal such as lead and copper alloys.  The Company also produces transformable products, electronic materials, and automobile parts.

Maruichi Steel Tube Ltd. produces welded steel pipes, structural tubes, and conduit tubes.  The Company's products range from industrial and construction use to office and home use.  Maruichi Steel Tube has operations in North America and Asia.

UACJ Corp. manufactures and sells aluminum products.  The line of products includes aluminum panels and parts for automobiles, aluminum sheets for circuit boards and home electric appliances, and aluminum building materials.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

Hoa Phat Group JSC is a multi-disciplinary manufacturing company. The Company manufactures a wide range of products, including steel, steel pipe, furniture, and refrigeration equipment.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

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Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Knock-Out Offer

This is a very appealing special situation: a motivated buyer, with its cards on the table, financing set aside, support from target and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ohayo Japan | Nippon Steel Forges Ahead with Deal for U.S. Steel

M&A activity boosts market, Fed tones down expectations for interest rate cuts. Japan's Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel for $15bn

Mark Chadwick

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

Nico Rosti

JFE Holdings (5411) - Volume Patterns Indicate Possible Squeeziness

JFE Holdings fell sharply after a capital raising announcement. Supply/demand is complicated. Foreign instos are asked to buy. Retail buys in the...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Knock-Out Offer

This is a very appealing special situation: a motivated buyer, with its cards on the table, financing set aside, support from target and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ohayo Japan | Nippon Steel Forges Ahead with Deal for U.S. Steel

​M&A activity boosts market, Fed tones down expectations for interest rate cuts. Japan's Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel for $15bn

Mark Chadwick

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

​The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

Nico Rosti

JFE Holdings (5411) - Volume Patterns Indicate Possible Squeeziness

​JFE Holdings fell sharply after a capital raising announcement. Supply/demand is complicated. Foreign instos are asked to buy. Retail buys in the...

Travis Lundy

M&A activity boosts market, Fed tones down expectations for interest rate cuts. Japan's Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel for $15bn

The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

JFE Holdings fell sharply after a capital raising announcement. Supply/demand is complicated. Foreign instos are asked to buy. Retail buys in the...