Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>ADVANC delivered in-line core profit in 2Q21, retaining EBITDA growth amidst a weak top line thanks to cost optimization. The prolonged new wave of COVID-19 led the company to revise down its service revenue growth and EBITDA guidance, which is still in line with our model. We thus leave our forecast unchanged and maintain a Buy rating.</p>

ADVANC delivered in-line core profit in 2Q21, retaining EBITDA growth amidst a weak top line thanks to cost optimization. The prolonged new wave of COVID-19 led the company to revise down its service revenue growth and EBITDA guidance, which is still in line with our model. We thus leave our forecast unchanged and maintain a Buy rating.

Earnings Review: Advanced Info Services Plc.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Not surprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153870&amp;sequence=2021078813" target="_blank" rel="noopener">says</a> the Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> is "<em>appropriate</em>". Equally unsurprising, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153760&amp;sequence=2021078811" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has</a> the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Not surprisingly, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s IFA says the Offer from Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) is "appropriate". Equally unsurprising, Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)'s IFA has the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.



Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<p><strong>We expect ADVANC to report 2Q21 net profit at Bt6.2bn (-11%YoY, -6%QoQ) caused by increased networking and amortization costs.</strong></p><div>• We expect 2Q21 revenue at Bt44.6bn, (+6%YoY, -3%QoQ), with 43.4 million mobile service subscribers (+4%YoY,+3%QoQ), at the expense of weakening ARPU.</div><div></div><div>• We foresee mobile prepaid and postpaid ARPU to continue tumbling to Bt145 (-7%YoY, -4%QoQ) and Bt475 (-9.1%YoY, -1.0%QoQ), respectively, from a prolonged intensive price war.</div><div></div><div>• We expect earnings momentum to recover in 3Q21, as the company offers the cheapest subscription prices to the widely anticipated Disney Plus streaming service, as well as new lockdown policies that encourage further internet use.</div><div>• We also expect earnings to peak in 4Q21  driven by growing handheld device sales that support 5G and net additional subscribers.</div><div>
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</div><p><strong>We maintain BUY rating with a new target price of Bt227 (or -2.6% from previous TP due to DCF adjustment), implying 24.1xPE’22E, a 21% premium to the Thai telecoms sector. Our rating is backed by growth potential from 5G and its largest total spectrum of bandwidth compared to peers.</strong></p>

We expect ADVANC to report 2Q21 net profit at Bt6.2bn (-11%YoY, -6%QoQ) caused by increased networking and amortization costs.• We expect 2Q21 revenue at Bt44.6bn, (+6%YoY, -3%QoQ), with 43.4 million mobile service subscribers (+4%YoY,+3%QoQ), at the expense of weakening ARPU.• We foresee mobile prepaid and postpaid ARPU to continue tumbling to Bt145 (-7%YoY, -4%QoQ) and Bt475 (-9.1%YoY, -1.0%QoQ), respectively, from a prolonged intensive price war.• We expect earnings momentum to recover in 3Q21, as the company offers the cheapest subscription prices to the widely anticipated Disney Plus streaming service, as well as new lockdown policies that encourage further internet use.• We also expect earnings to peak in 4Q21  driven by growing handheld device sales that support 5G and net additional subscribers.
 
We maintain BUY rating with a new target price of Bt227 (or -2.6% from previous TP due to DCF adjustment), implying 24.1xPE’22E, a 21% premium to the Thai telecoms sector. Our rating is backed by growth potential from 5G and its largest total spectrum of bandwidth compared to peers.

ADVANC: Expect 2Q21 Earnings to Drop Both YoY and QoQ

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Toshiba, Boral Ltd, Yageo/Chilisin, Microstrategy

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<div class="content-highlight">
<p>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> trading at terms to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>'s Offer...</p>
<p><em><strong>...What's the play here?</strong></em></p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




With Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) trading at terms to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)'s Offer...
...What's the play here?




Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

Earnings Review: Advanced Info Services Plc.

ADVANC delivered in-line core profit in 2Q21, retaining EBITDA growth amidst a weak top line thanks to cost optimization.

Krungthai XSpring

StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

I would still avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it, or short tender the stock. Best to wait until the close of the Offer to get a clearer...

David Blennerhassett

ADVANC: Expect 2Q21 Earnings to Drop Both YoY and QoQ

We expect ADVANC to report 2Q21 net profit at Bt6.2bn (-11%YoY, -6%QoQ) caused by increased networking and amortization costs.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Toshiba, Boral Ltd, Yageo/Chilisin, Microstrategy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open

I would avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it. I think we have to wait until the close of the Offer to get a better idea of what Gulf's next...

David Blennerhassett

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