Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.</li>
<li>As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.</li>
<li>Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK) is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.
As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.


BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.</li>
<li>As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index Team announced the changes to the Nikkei 225. That triggers flows of about ¥480bn a side, and some big, big changes.
As interest rates and inflation remain high, investors will (should) continue to prefer lower-risk investments over higher-risk growth companies such as de-SPACed Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK).
The Liontown Resources (LTR AU) / Albemarle Corp (ALB US) transaction looks done. However, Gina Rinehart may have other ideas.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub are around their lows since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celcomdigi-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:945:1" rel="noopener">CelcomDigi (CDB MK)</a> / Digi.com merger last November. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Axiata are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)'s NAV discount and implied stub are around their lows since the CelcomDigi (CDB MK) / Digi.com merger last November. 
Preceding my comments on Axiata are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a> recently completed the acquisition of a 66.03% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a>.  </li>
<li>Axiata is now obligated to undertake a mandatory tender (MTO) offer to acquire the remaining 33.97% equity interest in Link Net. There are no conditions attached to the MTO.</li>
<li>The MTO is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2022. The spread has narrowed, yet there is still some left.</li>
</ul>



Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) recently completed the acquisition of a 66.03% stake in Link Net (LINK IJ).  
Axiata is now obligated to undertake a mandatory tender (MTO) offer to acquire the remaining 33.97% equity interest in Link Net. There are no conditions attached to the MTO.
The MTO is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2022. The spread has narrowed, yet there is still some left.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), TA Securities Holdings Berhad

TA Securities Holdings Bhd

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Digi’s 9MFY21 core net profit of RM852mn (-3.0% YoY) came within ours and consensus estimates at 74.6% and 73.4%, respectively. Digi declared a 3rd interim dividend of 4.0sen (3QFY20: 4.1sen). [...] 3QFY21’s service revenue and EBITDA improved further for the 2nd consecutive quarter by 0.2% QoQ and 5.7% QoQ to RM1,343mn and RM786mn. [...] Alongside the gradual return of the operating and retail environment to normalcy, management’s latest guidance for FY21 is for service revenue to decline by low-single digit % (unchanged) and EBITDA to decline by a low-to-mid single digit (from mid-single digit). [...] Required Rate of Return of 7% is defined as the yield for one-year Malaysian government treasury plus assumed equity risk premium.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Digi’s 9MFY21 core net profit of RM852mn (-3.0% YoY) came within ours and consensus estimates at 74.6% and 73.4%, respectively. Digi declared a 3rd interim dividend of 4.0sen (3QFY20: 4.1sen). [...] 3QFY21’s service revenue and EBITDA improved further for the 2nd consecutive quarter by 0.2% QoQ and 5.7% QoQ to RM1,343mn and RM786mn. [...] Alongside the gradual return of the operating and retail environment to normalcy, management’s latest guidance for FY21 is for service revenue to decline by low-single digit % (unchanged) and EBITDA to decline by a low-to-mid single digit (from mid-single digit). [...] Required Rate of Return of 7% is defined as the yield for one-year Malaysian government treasury plus assumed equity risk premium.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Driving Resilience Via Sustainable Subscriber Mix

Malaysia

CelcomDigi Berhad is a mobile network operator. The Company offers Internet and wireless telecommunication products and services through the global system for mobile telecommunications (GSM) network. CelcomDigi serves customers in Malaysia.

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CelcomDigi (CDB MK)

BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

First Pacific announced a "Possible Spin-Off and Separate Listing of Maynilad Water Services". This action fits with our insight views that the...

David Mudd

Last Week in Event SPACE: Nikkei 225 Flow, Aquila Acquisition, Axiata, Intage, Liontown/Albemarle

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Axiata Is Coming Up Cheap

Both the NAV discount and implied stub for Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) are around their lows since the CelcomDigi (CDB MK) / Digi merger last November.

David Blennerhassett

Link Net: Home Straight For Axiata's MTO

Currently, trading at a gross/annualised spread of 2.5%/12.8%, assuming mid-September payment. Though not as exciting as it was at the time of my...

David Blennerhassett

Driving Resilience Via Sustainable Subscriber Mix

<p>Digi’s 9MFY21 core net profit of RM852mn (-3.0% YoY) came within ours and consensus estimates at 74.6% and 73.4%, respectively. Digi declared a...

TA Securities Holdings Bhd

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