Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.</li>
<li>Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. </li>
<li>On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.</li>
</ul>


In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.
Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. 
On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.


A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Microchip setting a downbeat tone for power and auto semi related.</li>
<li>Big gains for JP SPE yesterday on China news may be set to continue.</li>
<li>Seagate delaying some HDD production, although HAMR is progressing as planned.</li>
</ul>


Microchip setting a downbeat tone for power and auto semi related.
Big gains for JP SPE yesterday on China news may be set to continue.
Seagate delaying some HDD production, although HAMR is progressing as planned.


Japan Morning Connection: Nuclear News from Meta May Help Kansai After Settlement Day Selloff

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a>'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 18 December.</li>
<li>At the mid-point of the IPO price range of JPY 1390-1520/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> will be valued at JPY 784bn (US$5.24bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX</a> inclusion will take place in January while inclusion in global indices is likely to take place in May and June. Selling stock to increase float will be an overhang.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 18 December.
At the mid-point of the IPO price range of JPY 1390-1520/share, Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) will be valued at JPY 784bn (US$5.24bn).

TOPIX inclusion will take place in January while inclusion in global indices is likely to take place in May and June. Selling stock to increase float will be an overhang.


Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$727 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kioxia-285a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168216" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kioxia-285a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168542" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$727 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$740 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kioxia-285a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:168216" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross margin due to JV and weak FCF profile.</li>
</ul>



Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$740 million.
In Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross margin due to JV and weak FCF profile.


Japan

Hoya Corp manufactures electro-optics products such as mask blanks for semiconductors, photomasks for LCD panels, optical glasses, glass memory disks for HDDs, medical flexible endoscopes, eyeglasses, and contact lenses. The Company also provides information system architecture.

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Hoya Corp (7741 JP)

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

Japan Morning Connection: Nuclear News from Meta May Help Kansai After Settlement Day Selloff

Microchip setting downbeat tone for power/auto semi related. JP SPE may continue to see gains. Seagate delaying some HDD production but HAMAR...

Andrew Jackson

Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

Kioxia will list on the JPX on 18 Dec with a market cap of US$5-5.5bn. There will be a few index inclusions from Jan to June. The tradable share...

Brian Freitas

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

Japan Morning Connection: Nuclear News from Meta May Help Kansai After Settlement Day Selloff

​Microchip setting downbeat tone for power/auto semi related. JP SPE may continue to see gains. Seagate delaying some HDD production but HAMAR...

Andrew Jackson

Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

Kioxia will list on the JPX on 18 Dec with a market cap of US$5-5.5bn. There will be a few index inclusions from Jan to June. The tradable share...

Brian Freitas

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unrealistic long-term financial model assumptions, market share losses, high customer concentration risk, volatile gross...

Arun George

Microchip setting downbeat tone for power/auto semi related. JP SPE may continue to see gains. Seagate delaying some HDD production but HAMAR...