ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>'s recent results reflected a resilient performance as growth in deliveries more than offset the slower performance in mobility due to lockdowns across South-East Asia in 3Q2021.</li>
<li>The recovery is ongoing in mobility October and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> customers are spending more measured by GMV per monthly transacting user MTU plus margins are improving.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>'s merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a> is on track for a December listing which will also raise US$4.5bn in new funds adding fuel for future expansion</li>
</ul>



Grab's recent results reflected a resilient performance as growth in deliveries more than offset the slower performance in mobility due to lockdowns across South-East Asia in 3Q2021.
The recovery is ongoing in mobility October and Grab customers are spending more measured by GMV per monthly transacting user MTU plus margins are improving.

Grab's merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US) is on track for a December listing which will also raise US$4.5bn in new funds adding fuel for future expansion


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia plus value added commentary</li>
<li>This week includes insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synergy-grid-development-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23221:1" rel="noopener">Synergy Grid &amp; Development Philippines (SGP PM)</a> IPO, and Philippine Banks</li>
<li>There are also insights on Sea's Internet Economy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press (SPH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tiki-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35014:1" rel="noopener">Tiki</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro,</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> </li>
</ul>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia plus value added commentary
This week includes insights on Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ), XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP),Synergy Grid &amp; Development Philippines (SGP PM) IPO, and Philippine Banks
There are also insights on Sea's Internet Economy, Singapore Press (SPH SP), Singtel (ST SP), Cisarua Mountain Dairy IPO, Tiki IPO, Siam Makro, and Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Matahari Dept Store, Cimory IPO, and Philippine Banks

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>After a successful IPO which saw shares rally more than 55% from the IPO price during the first week, Indonesian e-commerce unicorn, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>’s share price has fallen by more than 43% during the last three months and currently trades at Rp 750 per share, 12% below the IPO price.</p><p>At 27.9x FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak has plenty of further downside potential especially considering that that the Mitra business will no longer be able to hide weaknesses of Bukalapak’s marketplace businesses.</p>

After a successful IPO which saw shares rally more than 55% from the IPO price during the first week, Indonesian e-commerce unicorn, Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)’s share price has fallen by more than 43% during the last three months and currently trades at Rp 750 per share, 12% below the IPO price.At 27.9x FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak has plenty of further downside potential especially considering that that the Mitra business will no longer be able to hide weaknesses of Bukalapak’s marketplace businesses.

Bukalapak: Mitra Won’t Save The Day Any More

Matahari Department Store / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> announced a pretty robust set of 9M2021 results considering the backdrop of Emergency PPKM in Indonesia.  In our view, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> has become investable again after a series of disappointments and misteps on strategy made it a minefield for long-term investors. Over the past two years the company has made numerous strategic moves under the guidance of new management, which have reversed a number of strategies that were clearly not working.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> continues to use non-store channels during Emergency PPKM during 3Q2021 to partially mitigate the impact and a full opening of stores in September also has some positive impact.</p>
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<section class="figure">The company saw all of its 137 stores reopned by 8th September with a gradual improvement in terms of access over the month and kids allowed back into the malls again in October, which helped to further improve traffic. </section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> has had  a new Chief Merchandising Officer in place called Rachel Stack for over a year now, who has a rich history in the retail business in the UK and Europe. She has already made significant changes to its merchandising mix. </section>
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<section class="figure">Overall the company is focused on what it terms "aspirational yet affordable" products and a rejuvenated omnichannle approach. The intention is to use its stores as assets in the future to aid fulfilment, with customer curated ranges to prevent any undue discount cycles.</section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> has resumed issuing guidance in November this year, which is also reassuring, with the resumption of a dividend payout a further positive for long-term investors.</section>
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<section class="figure">Valuations look reasonable, with the company trading on 12.6x FY22E PER and 9.7x FY23E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +58.7% and +29.4% for FY22E and FY23E respectively. It also continues to trade at a discount to its peers, which seems unjustified given the transformation taking place.</section>
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Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) announced a pretty robust set of 9M2021 results considering the backdrop of Emergency PPKM in Indonesia.  In our view, Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) has become investable again after a series of disappointments and misteps on strategy made it a minefield for long-term investors. Over the past two years the company has made numerous strategic moves under the guidance of new management, which have reversed a number of strategies that were clearly not working.

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) continues to use non-store channels during Emergency PPKM during 3Q2021 to partially mitigate the impact and a full opening of stores in September also has some positive impact.

The company saw all of its 137 stores reopned by 8th September with a gradual improvement in terms of access over the month and kids allowed back into the malls again in October, which helped to further improve traffic. 






Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) has had  a new Chief Merchandising Officer in place called Rachel Stack for over a year now, who has a rich history in the retail business in the UK and Europe. She has already made significant changes to its merchandising mix. 




Overall the company is focused on what it terms "aspirational yet affordable" products and a rejuvenated omnichannle approach. The intention is to use its stores as assets in the future to aid fulfilment, with customer curated ranges to prevent any undue discount cycles.




Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) has resumed issuing guidance in November this year, which is also reassuring, with the resumption of a dividend payout a further positive for long-term investors.


Valuations look reasonable, with the company trading on 12.6x FY22E PER and 9.7x FY23E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +58.7% and +29.4% for FY22E and FY23E respectively. It also continues to trade at a discount to its peers, which seems unjustified given the transformation taking place.














Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Revamped, Refreshed, and Investable

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, India’s largest digital ecosystem for consumers and merchants has opened its book-building which will run from 08<sup>th</sup> November to the 10<sup>th</sup> of November. Paytm plans to raise INR183bn (approx. US$2.4bn) through the issuance of a mix of new shares (approx. INR83bn) and existing shares (INR00bn) at an indicative price range of INR2,080-2,150 per share. At the above price range, Paytm will have a market capitalisation of INR1,351.1-1,396.6bn and a post-money enterprise value of INR1,254.1-1,296.8bn.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p><strong>Paytm IPO Details</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;"><strong>@ INR2,080 </strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;"><strong>@ INR2,150</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Shares Outstanding Pre-IPO (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                            609.7</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>                       609.7</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Offer Shares/New Shares Issued (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                              39.9</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>                         38.6</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Total Shares Outstanding post-IPO (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                            649.6</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>                       648.3</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Market Cap (INRm)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                1,351,111.5</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>           1,393,788.4</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Post-Money Enterprise Value (INRm)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                1,254,116.5</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>           1,296,793.4</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p><em>Source: Company disclosures (offer shares calculated by dividing new share issue of INR83bn by the IPO price, Enterprise value after adjusting for net debt and net IPO proceeds (we have assumed underwriting and other costs to be about 7.25% of gross proceeds) and cash and debt as of June 2021)</em></p><p>The company has already raised INR82.3bn from anchor investors (about 45.0% of the total offer) ahead of its IPO at a price of INR2,150 per share, and according to the company, its cornerstone investment was oversubscribed by more than 10x. These anchor investors include BlackRock, Vanguard, CPPIB, BirlaMF and GIC.</p><p>Paytm plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on growing and strengthening its Paytm ecosystem, investing on new business initiatives, acquisitions and strategic partnerships and for other general corporate purposes.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/442/original/image_54411635561636403842771.png?1636403843" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240442"></figure><p><em>Source: Company disclosures</em></p>

Paytm (PAYTM IN), India’s largest digital ecosystem for consumers and merchants has opened its book-building which will run from 08th November to the 10th of November. Paytm plans to raise INR183bn (approx. US$2.4bn) through the issuance of a mix of new shares (approx. INR83bn) and existing shares (INR00bn) at an indicative price range of INR2,080-2,150 per share. At the above price range, Paytm will have a market capitalisation of INR1,351.1-1,396.6bn and a post-money enterprise value of INR1,254.1-1,296.8bn.

Paytm IPO Details
@ INR2,080 
@ INR2,150


Shares Outstanding Pre-IPO (m)
                                            609.7
                       609.7


Offer Shares/New Shares Issued (m)
                                              39.9
                         38.6


Total Shares Outstanding post-IPO (m)
                                            649.6
                       648.3


Market Cap (INRm)
                                1,351,111.5
           1,393,788.4


Post-Money Enterprise Value (INRm)
                                1,254,116.5
           1,296,793.4

Source: Company disclosures (offer shares calculated by dividing new share issue of INR83bn by the IPO price, Enterprise value after adjusting for net debt and net IPO proceeds (we have assumed underwriting and other costs to be about 7.25% of gross proceeds) and cash and debt as of June 2021)The company has already raised INR82.3bn from anchor investors (about 45.0% of the total offer) ahead of its IPO at a price of INR2,150 per share, and according to the company, its cornerstone investment was oversubscribed by more than 10x. These anchor investors include BlackRock, Vanguard, CPPIB, BirlaMF and GIC.Paytm plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on growing and strengthening its Paytm ecosystem, investing on new business initiatives, acquisitions and strategic partnerships and for other general corporate purposes.Source: Company disclosures

Paytm IPO: More Expensive than Global Payment Giants and SOTP Suggests More Than 40% Discount

Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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Sea (SE US)

Grab - Resilience in Motion

Grab's recent results reflected a resilient performance as growth in deliveries more than offset the slower performance in mobility due to...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Matahari Dept Store, Cimory IPO, and Philippine Banks

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

Bukalapak: Mitra Won’t Save The Day Any More

At 27.9x FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak has plenty of further downside potential especially considering that that the Mitra business may not grow fast...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Revamped, Refreshed, and Investable

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) has become investable again with an omnichannel approach and a revamped and refreshed brand portfolio.

Angus Mackintosh

Paytm IPO: More Expensive than Global Payment Giants and SOTP Suggests More Than 40% Discount

With not so conservative assumptions, our SOTP valuation suggests that Paytm's shares are significantly overvalued at the IPO price range. At the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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