Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>’s share price fell 7.42% yesterday after a report broke out about mass layoffs across Shopee’s international operations.</li>
<li>We think Shopee has a fundamentally flawed business model and tinkering here and there won't be enough to make Shopee a world-class business.</li>
<li>With Free Fire falling fast and Shopee starved of funds, we fear that there could be another leg down for Sea Ltd shares in the short term.</li>
</ul>



Sea Ltd (SE US)’s share price fell 7.42% yesterday after a report broke out about mass layoffs across Shopee’s international operations.
We think Shopee has a fundamentally flawed business model and tinkering here and there won't be enough to make Shopee a world-class business.
With Free Fire falling fast and Shopee starved of funds, we fear that there could be another leg down for Sea Ltd shares in the short term.


Sea Ltd: Mass Layoffs at Shopee, Tinkering Here and There Won't Make Shopee A World-Class Business

<ul>
<li>Sea's share price rose 14% yesterday after beating consensus revenue by 1.4%, but this seems unwarranted as Sea lowered the lower-end of the e-commerce revenue guidance by $400m to $8.5bn.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, most of this price reaction could be short covering as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>’s results were rather disappointing on multiple fronts.</li>
<li>With Free Fire faltering fast, we think Sea could get washed back to rough seas before reaching calm waters.  </li>
</ul>


Sea's share price rose 14% yesterday after beating consensus revenue by 1.4%, but this seems unwarranted as Sea lowered the lower-end of the e-commerce revenue guidance by $400m to $8.5bn.
Nonetheless, most of this price reaction could be short covering as Sea Ltd (SE US)’s results were rather disappointing on multiple fronts.
With Free Fire faltering fast, we think Sea could get washed back to rough seas before reaching calm waters.  


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.</li>
<li>Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.</li>
</ul>


Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.
Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.


Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. </li>
<li>GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.</li>
</ul>


GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.


GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

<ul>
<li>Sea Ltd dropped 18% yesterday following India’s decision to ban its battle royale game, Free Fire and 53 other Chinese apps from the Google Play and App Store in India.</li>
<li>India’s Free Fire ban could deliver a double whammy to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> with lower Digital Entertainment profitability limiting Sea’s ability to bankroll Shopee’s expansion.</li>
<li>With the macro-outlook for growth stocks not looking great, we wouldn’t be surprised to see "Sea" breaking the bottom end of the EV/Sales range towards the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


Sea Ltd dropped 18% yesterday following India’s decision to ban its battle royale game, Free Fire and 53 other Chinese apps from the Google Play and App Store in India.
India’s Free Fire ban could deliver a double whammy to Sea Ltd (SE US) with lower Digital Entertainment profitability limiting Sea’s ability to bankroll Shopee’s expansion.
With the macro-outlook for growth stocks not looking great, we wouldn’t be surprised to see "Sea" breaking the bottom end of the EV/Sales range towards the end of the year.


Sea Ltd in Free Fall Following the Removal of Free Fire from The App Store & Google Play

Singapore

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

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Sea (SE US)

Sea Ltd: Mass Layoffs at Shopee, Tinkering Here and There Won't Make Shopee A World-Class Business

We think Shopee has a flawed business model and tinkering here and there won't be enough to make Shopee a world-class business. With Free Fire...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sea Ltd: In Rough Seas

Sea's share price rose 14% yesterday after beating consensus revenue by 1.4%, but this seems unwarranted as Sea lowered the lower-end of the e...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

Sea Ltd in Free Fall Following the Removal of Free Fire from The App Store & Google Play

India’s Free Fire ban could deliver a double whammy to Sea Ltd with lower Digital Entertainment profitability limiting Sea’s ability to bankroll...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sea Ltd: Mass Layoffs at Shopee, Tinkering Here and There Won't Make Shopee A World-Class Business

We think Shopee has a flawed business model and tinkering here and there won't be enough to make Shopee a world-class business. With Free Fire...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sea Ltd: In Rough Seas

Sea's share price rose 14% yesterday after beating consensus revenue by 1.4%, but this seems unwarranted as Sea lowered the lower-end of the e...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released...

Sumeet Singh

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

Sea Ltd in Free Fall Following the Removal of Free Fire from The App Store & Google Play

India’s Free Fire ban could deliver a double whammy to Sea Ltd with lower Digital Entertainment profitability limiting Sea’s ability to bankroll...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri