ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)</a> booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart as a supplier of essential goods. </li>
<li>The company cut promotional spending in 1Q2025 by half, which improved profitability by 30% QoQ, but it still booked SSSG of 8.8% YoY, outperforming other consumer staples players. </li>
<li>Alfamart continued to open new stores in 1Q2025, targetting 1,000 new outlets this year. This should help drive growth in 2025, along with SSSG. Valuations remain attractive versus growth prospects.</li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart as a supplier of essential goods. 
The company cut promotional spending in 1Q2025 by half, which improved profitability by 30% QoQ, but it still booked SSSG of 8.8% YoY, outperforming other consumer staples players. 
Alfamart continued to open new stores in 1Q2025, targetting 1,000 new outlets this year. This should help drive growth in 2025, along with SSSG. Valuations remain attractive versus growth prospects.


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Outperforming with Essentials

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Mild realization in supply adjustment due to the lack of clarity and monitoring. Impact on LB will be felt at the end of May25, at the earliest.</li><li>GPS importers, especially the larger ones, will bear most of the culling costs but there is still positive impact, nonetheless.</li><li>Maintain Overweight with better LB price outlook in 2H25 amid ST negative sentiment in July due to 2Q25 results and Suro month.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mild realization in supply adjustment due to the lack of clarity and monitoring. Impact on LB will be felt at the end of May25, at the earliest.GPS importers, especially the larger ones, will bear most of the culling costs but there is still positive impact, nonetheless.Maintain Overweight with better LB price outlook in 2H25 amid ST negative sentiment in July due to 2Q25 results and Suro month.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Poultry: Near-Term Supply Adjustments to Stabilize Prices, but Implementation Might Be Arduous

<ul><li>Chicken absorption from MBG program in FY25F to be minimal at 3.4%; full implementation may form 10% absorption in FY26 onwards.</li><li>Slight underweight in local funds and rebounding LB prices from their bottom in mid-Apr25 should limit further downside risks. </li><li>Maintain Overweight on poultry sector with CPIN as our top pick from cheaper historical valuation and better earnings outlook.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chicken absorption from MBG program in FY25F to be minimal at 3.4%; full implementation may form 10% absorption in FY26 onwards.Slight underweight in local funds and rebounding LB prices from their bottom in mid-Apr25 should limit further downside risks. Maintain Overweight on poultry sector with CPIN as our top pick from cheaper historical valuation and better earnings outlook.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Poultry: Bottoming-Out Livebird Prices, Better Supply-Demand Outlook in 2H25 (OVERWEIGHT)

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.</li>
<li>US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.</li>
</ul>


US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.
The S&amp;P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.
US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s potential Offer.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s potential Offer.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

Indonesia

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk manufactures animal feed, breeds and processes chickens, and operates aquaculture farms.  The Company trades its products domestically and internationally.

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Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Outperforming with Essentials

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart...

Angus Mackintosh

Poultry: Near-Term Supply Adjustments to Stabilize Prices, but Implementation Might Be Arduous

Mild realization in supply adjustment due to the lack of clarity and monitoring. Impact on LB will be felt at the end of May25, at the earliest.

BRI Danareksa Research

Poultry: Bottoming-Out Livebird Prices, Better Supply-Demand Outlook in 2H25 (OVERWEIGHT)

Chicken absorption from MBG program in FY25F to be minimal at 3.4%; full implementation may form 10% absorption in FY26 onwards.

BRI Danareksa Research

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies. The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while...

Lucror Analytics

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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