Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>The Fed has voted unanimously to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.50-4.75%, as expected.</li>
<li>The FOMC believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance, with an uncertain economic outlook, and the committee is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate".</li>
<li>Policymakers no longer included a line on achieving "greater confidence" that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, though they noted inflation has "made progress" toward the central bank's goal. </li>
</ul>


The Fed has voted unanimously to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.50-4.75%, as expected.
The FOMC believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance, with an uncertain economic outlook, and the committee is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate".
Policymakers no longer included a line on achieving "greater confidence" that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, though they noted inflation has "made progress" toward the central bank's goal. 


Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - November 8, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Despite delivering lower 3Q24 net profit of Rp617bn (-24% qoq, -28% yoy), JPFA’s 9M24 came in above our/cons. est. (94%/ 95% of FY24F).</li><li>Margin declined as expected, but 3Q24’s gross OPM of 6.2% came in ahead of our 5.6% bullish estimates.</li><li>We raised our FY24-25F net profit est. by 31-26%, rolled forward our valuation to FY25F, and lifted our TP to Rp2,900; maintain BUY rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite delivering lower 3Q24 net profit of Rp617bn (-24% qoq, -28% yoy), JPFA’s 9M24 came in above our/cons. est. (94%/ 95% of FY24F).Margin declined as expected, but 3Q24’s gross OPM of 6.2% came in ahead of our 5.6% bullish estimates.We raised our FY24-25F net profit est. by 31-26%, rolled forward our valuation to FY25F, and lifted our TP to Rp2,900; maintain BUY rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>JPFA continued to deliver stellar performance, with 1H24 net profit reaching IDR1.5 tn (vs IDR82.0 bn in 1H23), exceeding our/cons estimates, with a run-rate of 79.6%/98.7% of FY24E targets.</li><li>We revisited JPFA’s mid-downstream facilities in Tangerang, Banten, specifically Ciomas Commercial Farm (CCF) and PT So Good Food (SGF).</li><li>Assuming a density of 16 live birds per square meter and a 1% mortality rate, we estimate that the Tangerang CCF contributes 1-2% of Banten's total live bird production.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPFA continued to deliver stellar performance, with 1H24 net profit reaching IDR1.5 tn (vs IDR82.0 bn in 1H23), exceeding our/cons estimates, with a run-rate of 79.6%/98.7% of FY24E targets.We revisited JPFA’s mid-downstream facilities in Tangerang, Banten, specifically Ciomas Commercial Farm (CCF) and PT So Good Food (SGF).Assuming a density of 16 live birds per square meter and a 1% mortality rate, we estimate that the Tangerang CCF contributes 1-2% of Banten's total live bird production.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPFA IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report August 23, 2024

<ul><li>JPFA delivered 1H24 earnings beat as earnings momentum continued in 2Q24 (+145% yoy, +23% qoq), supported by higher margin.</li><li>The improving margin in 2Q24 was driven by lower feed costs(both corn and SBM) and higher prices for LB and DOC.</li><li>We maintain our Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp2,200 as we raise our FY24-25F est. by 24%-9% due to higher ASP and lower costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPFA delivered 1H24 earnings beat as earnings momentum continued in 2Q24 (+145% yoy, +23% qoq), supported by higher margin.The improving margin in 2Q24 was driven by lower feed costs(both corn and SBM) and higher prices for LB and DOC.We maintain our Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp2,200 as we raise our FY24-25F est. by 24%-9% due to higher ASP and lower costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia - 2Q24 Earnings Momentum Continued, Supported by Higher Margin

<ul><li>JPFA made a notable recovery in 1Q24, with a net profit of IDR664.8 bn (vs a net loss of IDR-7.5 bn in 4Q23 and IDR-249.9 bn in 1Q23)</li><li>The higher-than-expected net profit was primarily supported by better margins in the animal feed and poultry-related segments.</li><li>The government has extended the relaxation of the reference price regulation for commodities such as eggs, corn and broiler meat.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPFA made a notable recovery in 1Q24, with a net profit of IDR664.8 bn (vs a net loss of IDR-7.5 bn in 4Q23 and IDR-249.9 bn in 1Q23)The higher-than-expected net profit was primarily supported by better margins in the animal feed and poultry-related segments.The government has extended the relaxation of the reference price regulation for commodities such as eggs, corn and broiler meat.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPFA IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report June 6, 2024

Indonesia

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk manufactures animal feed, breeds and processes chickens, and operates aquaculture farms.  The Company trades its products domestically and internationally.

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Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - November 8, 2024

The FOMC believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance, with an uncertain economic outlook

Lucror Analytics

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia - 3Q24 Results

Despite delivering lower 3Q24 net profit of Rp617bn (-24% qoq, -28% yoy), JPFA’s 9M24 came in above our/cons. est. (94%/ 95% of FY24F).

BRI Danareksa Research

JPFA IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report August 23, 2024

JPFA continued to deliver stellar performance, with 1H24 net profit reaching IDR1.5 tn (vs IDR82.0 bn in 1H23), exceeding our/cons estimates, with...

MNC Sekuritas

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia - 2Q24 Earnings Momentum Continued, Supported by Higher Margin

JPFA delivered 1H24 earnings beat as earnings momentum continued in 2Q24 (+145% yoy, +23% qoq), supported by higher margin.

BRI Danareksa Research

JPFA IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report June 6, 2024

JPFA made a notable recovery in 1Q24, with a net profit of IDR664.8 bn (vs a net loss of IDR-7.5 bn in 4Q23 and IDR-249.9 bn in 1Q23).

MNC Sekuritas

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