Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

China Resources Beer Holdings / Event-Driven

Last evening, Hang Seng Indexes announced that the conclusions of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> market consultation will be released on 1 March. This means that the implementation of the changes using the new methodology will begin at the June 2021 review and conclude at the March 2022 review.With the results of the March 2021 review scheduled to be announced post market close tomorrow (26 February), the review will follow the current methodology. But with the leeway afforded to the index committee to decide on the stocks to be included/ excluded, stocks could be selected based on whether they will make the cut for inclusion based on the future methodology. This will also reduce the turnover at future reviews.The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> already has 52 constituents and we expect this to increase further at the March review. We expect only inclusions and the number of stocks in the index could increase to 55-56. This too will reduce the turnover at future reviews. The stocks included at the March review will see a big impact since they will be included in one shot, as opposed to stocks included at the June review where the implementation will most likely occur in 4 tranches.Potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>. Outside possibilities are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a>.

Last evening, Hang Seng Indexes announced that the conclusions of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) market consultation will be released on 1 March. This means that the implementation of the changes using the new methodology will begin at the June 2021 review and conclude at the March 2022 review.With the results of the March 2021 review scheduled to be announced post market close tomorrow (26 February), the review will follow the current methodology. But with the leeway afforded to the index committee to decide on the stocks to be included/ excluded, stocks could be selected based on whether they will make the cut for inclusion based on the future methodology. This will also reduce the turnover at future reviews.The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) already has 52 constituents and we expect this to increase further at the March review. We expect only inclusions and the number of stocks in the index could increase to 55-56. This too will reduce the turnover at future reviews. The stocks included at the March review will see a big impact since they will be included in one shot, as opposed to stocks included at the June review where the implementation will most likely occur in 4 tranches.Potential inclusions are ENN Energy (2688 HK), China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK). Outside possibilities are Haidilao (6862 HK), China Gas Holdings (384 HK) and Longfor Properties (960 HK).

HSI March Index Rebalance Preview - Last One Before New Methodology Kicks In

On 22 December 2020 post market close, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants had until 24 January to submit their views to HSIL.HSIL are scheduled to announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as a part of the March review on 26 February. There is a high probability that the conclusions of the market consultation will be announced on the same day.Given some large new listings since then and the price movements on the stocks, we refresh our list of potential inclusions and exclusions assuming that HSIL go up to 65 names or 80 names.In both cases, the turnover is very high in percentage terms and in dollar terms. HSIL will need to implement the changes over 1 year.We continue to believe that the market will probably be fine with increasing the number of constituents to 65, but will likely balk at going up to 80 in one shot.Financials would see the largest decrease in weight, offset by gains in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Properties, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

On 22 December 2020 post market close, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants had until 24 January to submit their views to HSIL.HSIL are scheduled to announce the changes to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as a part of the March review on 26 February. There is a high probability that the conclusions of the market consultation will be announced on the same day.Given some large new listings since then and the price movements on the stocks, we refresh our list of potential inclusions and exclusions assuming that HSIL go up to 65 names or 80 names.In both cases, the turnover is very high in percentage terms and in dollar terms. HSIL will need to implement the changes over 1 year.We continue to believe that the market will probably be fine with increasing the number of constituents to 65, but will likely balk at going up to 80 in one shot.Financials would see the largest decrease in weight, offset by gains in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Properties, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

HSI Market Consultation - Name Changes as We Await the Conclusions

At long last, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) has released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants have until 24 January to submit their views to the HSIL.There are 5 main proposals in the consultation paper:<ol>
<li>Select constituents by industry group based on a target coverage for each industry group</li>
<li>Increase the number of constituents to between 65 to 80</li>
<li>Removal of the Minimum Listing History requirement for eligible candidates</li>
<li>Maintain a certain number of constituents classified as Hong Kong companies to sustain the level of representation of Hong Kong portion in the index</li>
<li>Lower the weighting cap of individual constituents from 10% to 8%, and increase the weighting cap of WVRs and Secondary Listings from 5% to 8%.</li>
</ol>The simulated one-way turnover of increasing the number of constituents to between 65-80 is estimated at 15-20% and HSIL proposes to implement the transition to the enhanced methodology within one year.In this Insight, we look at the impact on the index from the proposed changes.

At long last, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) has released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants have until 24 January to submit their views to the HSIL.There are 5 main proposals in the consultation paper:
Select constituents by industry group based on a target coverage for each industry group
Increase the number of constituents to between 65 to 80
Removal of the Minimum Listing History requirement for eligible candidates
Maintain a certain number of constituents classified as Hong Kong companies to sustain the level of representation of Hong Kong portion in the index
Lower the weighting cap of individual constituents from 10% to 8%, and increase the weighting cap of WVRs and Secondary Listings from 5% to 8%.
The simulated one-way turnover of increasing the number of constituents to between 65-80 is estimated at 15-20% and HSIL proposes to implement the transition to the enhanced methodology within one year.In this Insight, we look at the impact on the index from the proposed changes.

HSI Market Consultation - Wide Ranging Changes Proposed

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Longfor Properties / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$626m in its placement. This is a mix of top-up placement and secondary selldown (50:50) with an upsize option of another 30m shares with the split of top-up and secondary.In this note, we will mainly look at deal dynamics, recent and past deal performance. We will also run the deal through our ECM framework.

Longfor Properties (960 HK) is looking to raise up to US$626m in its placement. This is a mix of top-up placement and secondary selldown (50:50) with an upsize option of another 30m shares with the split of top-up and secondary.In this note, we will mainly look at deal dynamics, recent and past deal performance. We will also run the deal through our ECM framework.

Longfor Placement - Chairwoman/Co-Founder Selling in the Mix

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, there are 3 inclusions and 1 deletion, taking the number of index constituents up to 52.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, while the sole deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>. One-way turnover is estimated at 7.38%. That is very high and will result in big turnover at the closing auction on 4 December. We estimate 5 days of ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> from passive funds, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> have over 4 days and 3 days of ADV to buy respectively. The impact of passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is lower at 1.6 days of ADV.Following HSIL's announcement at the previous index review, we had expected there would be more additions than deletions in this review. All the 3 stocks added to the index were our highest probability inclusion candidates - the 'surprise' for the market would have to be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> was probably on everyone's list for inclusion.We had picked <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> as the most likely deletion candidate, though we did not think that HSIL would actually delete the stock since it derives most of its revenue from Hong Kong and helps reduce the overlap with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.HSIL announced that they had submitted a study on the composition of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> to the Advisory Committee and plan to conduct a market consultation this year with the conclusions announced in February 2021. The implementation of the changes will most likely commence at the March 2021/ June 2021 index review.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), there are 3 inclusions and 1 deletion, taking the number of index constituents up to 52.The inclusions are Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK), while the sole deletion is Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK). One-way turnover is estimated at 7.38%. That is very high and will result in big turnover at the closing auction on 4 December. We estimate 5 days of ADV to sell on Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) from passive funds, while Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) have over 4 days and 3 days of ADV to buy respectively. The impact of passive buying on Meituan (3690 HK) is lower at 1.6 days of ADV.Following HSIL's announcement at the previous index review, we had expected there would be more additions than deletions in this review. All the 3 stocks added to the index were our highest probability inclusion candidates - the 'surprise' for the market would have to be Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) followed by Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK). Meituan (3690 HK) was probably on everyone's list for inclusion.We had picked Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) as the most likely deletion candidate, though we did not think that HSIL would actually delete the stock since it derives most of its revenue from Hong Kong and helps reduce the overlap with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).HSIL announced that they had submitted a study on the composition of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) to the Advisory Committee and plan to conduct a market consultation this year with the conclusions announced in February 2021. The implementation of the changes will most likely commence at the March 2021/ June 2021 index review. 

Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Three Adds, One Delete, High Turnover, and More Changes to Come

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

HSI March Index Rebalance Preview - Last One Before New Methodology Kicks In

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Brian Freitas

HSI Market Consultation - Wide Ranging Changes Proposed

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Longfor Placement - Chairwoman/Co-Founder Selling in the Mix

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Zhen Zhou, Toh

Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Three Adds, One Delete, High Turnover, and More Changes to Come

There are 3 adds and 1 delete to the HSI in the Dec20 index review with a one-way turnover of 7.68%. The upcoming market consultation means there...

Brian Freitas

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