External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We think Longfor’s strategy shift into safety would continue to leave it lagging behind those SOE peers in 2023E.</li><li>On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure especially in 2023E (guided -3% YoY).</li><li>Also management will not expand total debts for land acquisition which limits the sales upside in a recovery market. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We think Longfor’s strategy shift into safety would continue to leave it lagging behind those SOE peers in 2023E.On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure especially in 2023E (guided -3% YoY).Also management will not expand total debts for land acquisition which limits the sales upside in a recovery market. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Longfor (960 HK) – Transition leaving growth muted

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 17th): Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Longfor Group's FY 2022 results were satisfactory in our view. Despite a 31% y-o-y decline in contracted sales and ongoing margin pressure, total revenue grew 12%, with a 25% spike in recurring revenue. EBITDA climbed 9.3% to CNY 47.6 bn. While adjusted gross debt rose to CNY 223 bn (due to increased bank and other borrowings), short-term debt remained relatively low at CNY 22 bn, accounting for only 10% of total debt. This was thanks to the company’s strategy of optimising its debt structure by controlling ST and offshore debt. The liquidity buffer remains adequate, with restricted cash covering over 3x of short-term debt. Longfor successfully raised c. CNY 10 bn of funds in 2022 amid a market downturn, signalling low refinancing risk. We believe that Longfor has sound fundamentals, and we are confident about the company's ability to continue outperforming the industry. We project that future growth will be driven by good-quality land banks and diversified business segments.

  Longfor Group's FY 2022 results were satisfactory in our view. Despite a 31% y-o-y decline in contracted sales and ongoing margin pressure, total revenue grew 12%, with a 25% spike in recurring revenue. EBITDA climbed 9.3% to CNY 47.6 bn. While adjusted gross debt rose to CNY 223 bn (due to increased bank and other borrowings), short-term debt remained relatively low at CNY 22 bn, accounting for only 10% of total debt. This was thanks to the company’s strategy of optimising its debt structure by controlling ST and offshore debt.   The liquidity buffer remains adequate, with restricted cash covering over 3x of short-term debt. Longfor successfully raised c. CNY 10 bn of funds in 2022 amid a market downturn, signalling low refinancing risk. We believe that Longfor has sound fundamentals, and we are confident about the company's ability to continue outperforming the industry. We project that future growth will be driven by good-quality land banks and diversified business segments. 

Longfor Group - Earnings Flash - FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.</li><li>However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.</li><li>Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?</li><li>It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.</li><li>The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1st November) to peak (27th November) was 43.5%.</li></ul>

As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1st November) to peak (27th November) was 43.5%.

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

Longfor (960 HK) – Transition leaving growth muted

On the DP side, the lack of effective land bank (only 22.5mn sqm excl. Yantai and sold but unbooked GFA) would put sales outlook under pressure...

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 17th): Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Longfor Group - Earnings Flash - FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

Longfor Group's FY 2022 results were satisfactory in our view. Despite a 31% y-o-y decline in contracted sales and ongoing margin pressure, total...

Lucror Analytics

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast. However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign...

CMB International

China Real Estate

It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak...

Untying The Gordian Knot

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