Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walgreens-boots-alliance-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1118:1" rel="noopener">Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-jones-industrial-average" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22887:1" rel="noopener">Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)</a> at the close on 23 February.</li>
<li>Passives will need to sell a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> following the 3:1 stock split and buy a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Given the ad hoc nature of the rebalances and the short timeline between announcement and implementation, the stocks could move over the rest of the week.</li>
</ul>



Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX) at the close on 23 February.
Passives will need to sell a lot of Walmart (WMT US) following the 3:1 stock split and buy a lot of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US). 
Given the ad hoc nature of the rebalances and the short timeline between announcement and implementation, the stocks could move over the rest of the week.


Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).</li>
<li>Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.</li>
<li>In this note we explore the <em><strong>relative performance</strong></em> of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.</li>
</ul>


Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).
Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.
In this note we explore the relative performance of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.


US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.
TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.


[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.
US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;</li>
<li>A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;</li>
<li>To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.</li>
</ul>


We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;
A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;
To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.


If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

United States

Exxon Mobil Corporation operates petroleum and petrochemicals businesses on a worldwide basis.  The Company's operations include exploration and production of oil and gas, electric power generation, and coal and minerals operations. Exxon Mobil also manufactures and markets fuels, lubricants, and chemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Exxon Mobil (XOM US)

Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)

Amazon replaces Walgreen Boots in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the close on 23 February following Walmart's stock split. There will be over...

Brian Freitas

US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

US rates and factor strategies: higher for longer likely to drive outperformance of short duration factor strategies, long US value short US growth.

DMA

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: Amazon (AMZN) Replaces Walgreen Boots (WBA)

Amazon replaces Walgreen Boots in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the close on 23 February following Walmart's stock split. There will be over...

Brian Freitas

US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

US rates and factor strategies: higher for longer likely to drive outperformance of short duration factor strategies, long US value short US growth.

DMA

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

​US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

​Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....