Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy (5021 JP)</a> is more of a buy than a sell.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.</li>
<li>Unloved as it is, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> is still cheap. </li>
</ul>


Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, Cosmo Energy (5021 JP) is more of a buy than a sell.

Olam Group (OLG SP) is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.
Unloved as it is, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) is still cheap. 


Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After Macau’s government renewed the concession periods for the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years, the key players are up 86% on average</li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> have gained a little over 100%. </li>
<li>Melco's NAV discount is back out to 36%. The simple ratio - Melco/MCLO - is around the lowest level since Melco began consolidating MCLO in early 2017.</li>
</ul>


After Macau’s government renewed the concession periods for the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years, the key players are up 86% on average
Both Melco International Development (200 HK) and Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) have gained a little over 100%. 
Melco's NAV discount is back out to 36%. The simple ratio - Melco/MCLO - is around the lowest level since Melco began consolidating MCLO in early 2017.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> is still expected to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> minorities sooner rather than later</li>
<li>Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.</li>
<li>APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.   </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is still expected to buy out SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) minorities sooner rather than later
Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.
APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.   


Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa

<ul>
<li>YFO has played a relatively upfront game for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> - badly at first, then better. </li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2O (8242 JP)</a> now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)</a>'s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it's likely to be 13%+.</li>
</ul>


YFO has played a relatively upfront game for Toyo Construction (1890 JP) - badly at first, then better. 
With Takashimaya (8233 JP) and H2O (8242 JP) now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.

Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)'s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it's likely to be 13%+.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> through mid-January. Then sell. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> may drift lower as the street crunches numbers, in tandem with a vacuum of news as Brookfield undertakes its due diligence.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> is now upset that YFO has decided to release the reason why Toyo management didn't.</li>
</ul>


Stay long NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) through mid-January. Then sell. 

Origin Energy (ORG AU) may drift lower as the street crunches numbers, in tandem with a vacuum of news as Brookfield undertakes its due diligence.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP) is now upset that YFO has decided to release the reason why Toyo management didn't.


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data, Origin Energy, Toyo Construction, Haidilao, Toshiba

Hong Kong

SJM Holdings Limited offers amusement and recreation services.  The Company operates casinos, hotels, and other tourism-related facilities in Macau.

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SJM Holdings (880 HK)

Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Melco Trading "Cheap" As Macau Opens Up

Melco's NAV discount is back out to 36%. The simple ratio - Melco/MCLO - is around the lowest level since Melco began consolidating MCLO in early...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

The long weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data, Origin Energy, Toyo Construction, Haidilao, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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