Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>'s TOPIX inclusion is this week. And the Real World Float has gotten smaller since the offering. And some of those people aren't going to sell near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants. </li>
<li>Understanding real money demand on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> story is key. If there is any, that makes deal overhang smaller than it looks. </li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)'s TOPIX inclusion is this week. And the Real World Float has gotten smaller since the offering. And some of those people aren't going to sell near-term.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants. 
Understanding real money demand on the Rakuten (4755 JP) story is key. If there is any, that makes deal overhang smaller than it looks. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Rakuten Bank/Group, Cathay/Swire Pacific, Japan Post

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Casino Business Review LLC

Extensive experience in marketing and development in the Asian gaming market

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Legacy concessionaire SJM needs a strong performance from its Cotai flagship to create positive cash flow to service debt and keep gains in mass market share.</li>
<li>The company has closed 5 satellite casinos, a move that indicates a shift in strategic goals aimed at building out from its two IRs.</li>
<li>Thus far, SJM has not fully participated in the  early Macau recovery cycle to make it a BUY but it needs to build on its 81% of mass revenue.</li>
</ul>


Legacy concessionaire SJM needs a strong performance from its Cotai flagship to create positive cash flow to service debt and keep gains in mass market share.
The company has closed 5 satellite casinos, a move that indicates a shift in strategic goals aimed at building out from its two IRs.
Thus far, SJM has not fully participated in the  early Macau recovery cycle to make it a BUY but it needs to build on its 81% of mass revenue.


SJM Holdings Ltd: Large Refi of Debt Buys Time for Grand Lisboa Palace to Prove Its US$3b Cost

<ul>
<li>It is relatively low-hanging fruit to "further propel the renmimbi's internationalisation" and for HKEX, it will "cement HK's position as the premier offshore renmimbi financing center."</li>
<li>The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.</li>
<li>Short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> now, or soon. The dynamics of this is that there WILL be selling when the rights come out. </li>
</ul>


It is relatively low-hanging fruit to "further propel the renmimbi's internationalisation" and for HKEX, it will "cement HK's position as the premier offshore renmimbi financing center."
The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like Fast Retailing (9983 JP), the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
Short Yuexiu Property (123 HK) now, or soon. The dynamics of this is that there WILL be selling when the rights come out. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Fast Retailing, Yuexiu Property, Vinda, Tokyo Gas

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> has entered into a share repurchase agreement with a wholly-owned entity of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> to repurchase (and cancel) 40.37mn shares for US$169.8mn.</li>
<li>Melco's effective holding will decline to 51.7% from 53.1% currently. This is the second parent/sub repurchase agreement in the last 7 months. </li>
<li>MLCO's previously announced US$500mn share repurchase program remains unaffected by this privately negotiated transaction, with US$412mn still available for future repurchases under the program.</li>
</ul>



Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) has entered into a share repurchase agreement with a wholly-owned entity of Melco International Development (200 HK) to repurchase (and cancel) 40.37mn shares for US$169.8mn.
Melco's effective holding will decline to 51.7% from 53.1% currently. This is the second parent/sub repurchase agreement in the last 7 months. 
MLCO's previously announced US$500mn share repurchase program remains unaffected by this privately negotiated transaction, with US$412mn still available for future repurchases under the program.


Melco (200 HK) Takes More Money Off The Table

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

SJM Holdings' FY 2022 earnings were strong, albeit inconsequential in our view. The company reported smaller revenue and GGR declines compared to the industry, and delivered commendable market share growth (supported by a better showing at its self-promoted casinos). It is uncertain if SJM can retain the market share gains going forward, considering the slow ramp-up at Grand Lisboa Palace (GLP) as well as the company's closure of five satellite and two self-promoted casinos. SJM may also have to contend with higher employee costs, as it has a surplus of gaming staff (arising from the casino closures) but insufficient headcount to ramp up operations at GLP. We expect FCF to remain deeply negative in FY 2023, due to high capex and an uncertain earnings trajectory.

  SJM Holdings' FY 2022 earnings were strong, albeit inconsequential in our view. The company reported smaller revenue and GGR declines compared to the industry, and delivered commendable market share growth (supported by a better showing at its self-promoted casinos).   It is uncertain if SJM can retain the market share gains going forward, considering the slow ramp-up at Grand Lisboa Palace (GLP) as well as the company's closure of five satellite and two self-promoted casinos. SJM may also have to contend with higher employee costs, as it has a surplus of gaming staff (arising from the casino closures) but insufficient headcount to ramp up operations at GLP. We expect FCF to remain deeply negative in FY 2023, due to high capex and an uncertain earnings trajectory. 

SJM Holdings - Earnings Flash - FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

Hong Kong

SJM Holdings Limited offers amusement and recreation services.  The Company operates casinos, hotels, and other tourism-related facilities in Macau.

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SJM Holdings (880 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Rakuten Bank/Group, Cathay/Swire Pacific, Japan Post

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

SJM Holdings Ltd: Large Refi of Debt Buys Time for Grand Lisboa Palace to Prove Its US$3b Cost

SJM has been slow to move higher in the Macau recovery cycle but has potential in its full opening of its Grand Lisboa Palace this summer. Its a hold.

Howard J Klein

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Fast Retailing, Yuexiu Property, Vinda, Tokyo Gas

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Melco (200 HK) Takes More Money Off The Table

Since Melco's first repurchase agreement last August, its implied stub has widened from negative HK$1.22 to negative HK$5.42, despite the stub...

David Blennerhassett

SJM Holdings - Earnings Flash - FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

SJM Holdings' FY 2022 earnings were strong, albeit inconsequential in our view. The company reported smaller revenue and GGR declines compared to...

Lucror Analytics

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