IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> has revised its offer from 1 MinRes share for every 1,367 NWE shares to 1 MinRes share for every 1,300 NWE shares. The offer is unconditional. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> Board now recommends the offer. Most of the value uplift is due to the 17.4% increase in MinRes’ share price since 15 December.</li>
<li>MinRes’ revised off-market takeover offer is fair in comparison to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>’s bids and historical ranges. However, this is predicated on the MinRes maintaining its share price run.</li>
</ul>



Mineral Resources (MIN AU) has revised its offer from 1 MinRes share for every 1,367 NWE shares to 1 MinRes share for every 1,300 NWE shares. The offer is unconditional. 
The Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) Board now recommends the offer. Most of the value uplift is due to the 17.4% increase in MinRes’ share price since 15 December.
MinRes’ revised off-market takeover offer is fair in comparison to Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s bids and historical ranges. However, this is predicated on the MinRes maintaining its share price run.


Norwest Energy (NWE AU): The Board Perplexing Succumbs to MinRes’ Revised Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>’s offers from Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).</li>
<li>A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.</li>
</ul>



Warrego Energy (WGO AU)’s offers from Hancock and Strike Energy (STX AU) close on 31 January and 13 February, respectively. As time passes, the chance of a further bump is slim.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is the kingmaker. A MinRes/Strike pairing results in a combined min of 49.83% to a max of 73.93% of outstanding shares (if Hancock retains its stake).
A MinRes/Hancock pairing results in a combined min of 45.21% to a max of 69.32% of outstanding shares (if Strike retains its stake). This is the likely scenario.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a>'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a> Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. </li>
<li>Hancock’s latest bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.</li>
</ul>



Mineral Resources (MIN AU)'s off-market takeover offer at 1 MIN share for every 1,367 NWE shares closes on 6 February. The target's statement will be despatched by early to mid-January.
The Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU) Board recommends shareholders take no action. The timing is opportunistic and motivated by recent Perth Basin consolidation activity. 
Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to reject the offer.


Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/15pc-of-warrego-s-register-changes-hands-fingers-point-to-minres-20230104-p5caeo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> was the buyer of 15% of outstanding shares at A$0.35, 25.0% above Hancock and 4.5% above <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>’s offer.</li>
<li>MinRes’ move is motivated by the desire to have a say in the recent Perth Basin consolidation. It recently lobbed an all-scrip takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>.   </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>'s three largest shareholders are now the three suitors. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that Mineral Resources (MIN AU) was the buyer of 15% of outstanding shares at A$0.35, 25.0% above Hancock and 4.5% above Strike Energy (STX AU)’s offer.
MinRes’ move is motivated by the desire to have a say in the recent Perth Basin consolidation. It recently lobbed an all-scrip takeover offer for Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU).   

Warrego Energy (WGO AU)'s three largest shareholders are now the three suitors. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done. 


Warrego (WGO AU): Has MinRes Gatecrashed the Party?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Acotec Scientific Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of December, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%, giving an average for 2022 of 41%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%, giving an average for 2022 of 41%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A 2022 Roundup: Bigtincan, St Barbara/Genesis, Acotec, Conexio, ENEOS, Nidec OKK

Australia

New Hope Corporation Limited is a thermal coal production company based in Australia. The Company also has interests in logistics and infrastructure operations in Australia as well.

Paladin Energy Ltd operates as a mining company. The Company explores and mines uranium. Paladin Energy serves customers worldwide.

Stanmore Coal Ltd. explores for coal in Australia. The Company's interests include a portfolio of coal assets within Queensland's Bowen and Surat Basin coal provinces.

Emerald Resources NL is an oil and gas exploration company with exploration activities in the United States and Australia.

Viva Energy Group Limited markets petroleum products. The Company focuses on making, importing, and delivering the fuels, lubricants, chemicals, and bitumen. Viva Energy Group serves the mining, aviation, and marine industries in Australia.

Karoon Energy Ltd operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and acquires oil and gas exploration assets. Karoon Energy serves customers worldwide.

Deep Yellow Limited is an advanced stage uranium exploration company progressing its core Namibian projects.

Energy Resources of Australia Limited is a uranium company which mines, processes and sells uranium oxide from the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory and uranium concentrates sourced outside Australia to nuclear electric utilities in Japan, South Korea, Europe and North America.  The Company also provides environmental consulting services.

Bannerman Resources Ltd. explores for uranium in Australia and Africa.

Strike Energy Limited is an oil and gas exploration company whose exploration activities are located in the Carnarvon Basin in Western Australia and the Cooper Basin in South Australia.

Teekay Tankers Ltd. provides oil transportation services through a fleet of mid-size tankers, including Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers and Long Range 2 product tankers. The Company's vessels are typically employed through a mix of short- or medium-term fixed-rate time charter contracts and spot tanker market trading.

Shanxi Meijin Energy Co., Ltd. produces coal and related products.

Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Ltd. (000723 CH)

Sitio Royalties Corp. focuses on investing in mineral and royalty interests in oil basins. The Company acquires, owns, and manages mineral and royalty interests across a diverse set of operators in unconventional basins within the United States with a specific focus on the Permian Basin.

Kosmos Energy Ltd. provides oil and gas exploration and production services. The Company focuses on discovering new petroleum systems and to grow and mature discovered hydrocarbon basins, as well as development and production projects. Kosmos Energy serves customers worldwide.

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. explores and develops oil and natural gas properties in Pakistan.

Earthstone Energy, Inc. is a growth-oriented independent energy company engaged in developing and operating oil and gas properties.  The Company's primary assets are located in the Midland Basin of west Texas and the Eagle Ford trend of south Texas.

CVR Energy, Inc. is an independent refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. The Company, also through a limited partnership produces ammonia and urea ammonia nitrate, or UAN, fertilizers.

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. explores, develops, and markets petroleum products such as crude oil and natural gas.

The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited owns and operates cargo ships. The Company's fleet of vessels includes bulk carriers, tankers and offshore supply vessels. The Company also acts as an agent for a number of foreign shipping companies.

Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co., Ltd. explores, process and sells coal.

Gansu Jngyn Coal Inds & Elctr Pwr (000552 CH)

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

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Beach Energy (BPT AU)

Norwest Energy (NWE AU): The Board Perplexing Succumbs to MinRes’ Revised Offer

The Board has bafflingly recommended an offer that looks good mainly due to the MinRes share price run. Offer unconditional. At the last close, the...

Arun George

Warrego (WGO AU): End-Game Scenarios

Unlikely to see another bump as stretched valuations and deal fatigue sets in. Trading through Hancock's terms, the slim 1.3% spread to Strike’s...

Arun George

Norwest Energy (NWE AU): Valuation Read Across from Warrego’s Takeover Battle

MinRes' offer is open. Hancock’s latest bid for Warrego suggests that Norwest is worth at least 20% more than MinRes’ offer. Expect the Board to...

Arun George

Warrego (WGO AU): Has MinRes Gatecrashed the Party?

MinRes is rumoured to be the buyer of a 15% stake. The emergence of MinRes (if confirmed) suggests that the takeover battle is far from done.

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A 2022 Roundup: Bigtincan, St Barbara/Genesis, Acotec, Conexio, ENEOS, Nidec OKK

For the month of December, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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