Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> ended on 30 September.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any constituent changes for the index. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round-trip trade of HK$6.1bn (US$785m).</li>
<li>If any stocks have outsized moves on expectations of being added to or deleted from the index, there could be opportunities to enter trades.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 30 September.
We do not forecast any constituent changes for the index. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round-trip trade of HK$6.1bn (US$785m).
If any stocks have outsized moves on expectations of being added to or deleted from the index, there could be opportunities to enter trades.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>In its last update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group</a> announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.</li>
<li>The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?</li>
<li>Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a> could take the stock higher from here. </li>
</ul>


In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here. 


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

To match service levels offered by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/446" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and leading express carrier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4128" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1">S.F. Holding Co Ltd (002352 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)</a> and its logistics partners are making a belated push to invest in first- and last-mile parcel delivery capacity. BABA and its partners have so far avoided making the large investments needed to control 100% of their parcel delivery networks. Instead of direct ownership of first- and last-mile assets, BABA has tried to rely upon the 'transparency' provided by its technologically sophisticated logistics subsidiary, CaiNiao Network (CN). But five years after BABA set up CN, JD.com's continued lead in logistics quality and logistics speed -- confirmed in private surveys of Chinese consumers -- seems to have convinced BABA and its partners that they must finally take the plunge.Battle lines in this coming logistics war have been drawn over the past year or so. JD.com established JD Logistics in April 2017, and the private company recently raised US$2.5 bn at a valuation of US$13.4 bn. SF Express -- China's largest express carrier by revenue -- already offers first- and last-mile delivery, and has shown a willingness to butt heads with BABA. The five smaller express companies aligned with BABA have recently announced moves that will bring them even closer to the e-commerce giant; there are also indications these express companies are stepping up their own first- and last-mile investments at the behest of BABA.For the five carriers aligned with BABA, a belated push into ownership of first- and last-mile service will require an enormous increase in capital expenditures. The five carriers had combined capex of about 8.3 bn RMB in 2017; we estimate the push to acquire control of first- and last-mile capacity could require additional annual capex of 25 bn RMB or more over the next few years (BABA itself had CapEx of 29.8 bn RMB in its latest fiscal year). Such a dramatic increase in capital spending -- assuming it is mainly shouldered by the express companies -- will require significant, dilutive fundraising by these five express carriers over the next few years; we also anticipate initial returns on these investments will be very low.Alternatively, if it is BABA's private logistics subsidiary CN that does the heavy lifting, this would likely bring forward the timing of that company's IPO (it was valued at US$20 bn in a September 2017 funding round). We do not believe the expansion of first- and last-mile capacity is part of CN's projected total CapEx of 100 bn RMB between 2017-2021. The ultimate beneficiary of this costly expansion of express networks? Alibaba, of course. As a result of the expected push into first- and last-mile delivery, the e-commerce giant will likely end up with deeper reach and faster, more reliable delivery service. These improvements should allow it to retain its position as China's pre-eminent e-commerce company. The apparent asymmetry of expected capex and expected benefits from first- and last-mile investments -- express companies invest, BABA reaps the benefits -- suggests a pair trade: Long BABA against Short positions in China's express companies.

To match service levels offered by JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and leading express carrier S.F. Holding Co Ltd (002352 CH), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US) and its logistics partners are making a belated push to invest in first- and last-mile parcel delivery capacity. BABA and its partners have so far avoided making the large investments needed to control 100% of their parcel delivery networks. Instead of direct ownership of first- and last-mile assets, BABA has tried to rely upon the 'transparency' provided by its technologically sophisticated logistics subsidiary, CaiNiao Network (CN). But five years after BABA set up CN, JD.com's continued lead in logistics quality and logistics speed -- confirmed in private surveys of Chinese consumers -- seems to have convinced BABA and its partners that they must finally take the plunge.Battle lines in this coming logistics war have been drawn over the past year or so. JD.com established JD Logistics in April 2017, and the private company recently raised US$2.5 bn at a valuation of US$13.4 bn. SF Express -- China's largest express carrier by revenue -- already offers first- and last-mile delivery, and has shown a willingness to butt heads with BABA. The five smaller express companies aligned with BABA have recently announced moves that will bring them even closer to the e-commerce giant; there are also indications these express companies are stepping up their own first- and last-mile investments at the behest of BABA.For the five carriers aligned with BABA, a belated push into ownership of first- and last-mile service will require an enormous increase in capital expenditures. The five carriers had combined capex of about 8.3 bn RMB in 2017; we estimate the push to acquire control of first- and last-mile capacity could require additional annual capex of 25 bn RMB or more over the next few years (BABA itself had CapEx of 29.8 bn RMB in its latest fiscal year). Such a dramatic increase in capital spending -- assuming it is mainly shouldered by the express companies -- will require significant, dilutive fundraising by these five express carriers over the next few years; we also anticipate initial returns on these investments will be very low.Alternatively, if it is BABA's private logistics subsidiary CN that does the heavy lifting, this would likely bring forward the timing of that company's IPO (it was valued at US$20 bn in a September 2017 funding round). We do not believe the expansion of first- and last-mile capacity is part of CN's projected total CapEx of 100 bn RMB between 2017-2021. The ultimate beneficiary of this costly expansion of express networks? Alibaba, of course. As a result of the expected push into first- and last-mile delivery, the e-commerce giant will likely end up with deeper reach and faster, more reliable delivery service. These improvements should allow it to retain its position as China's pre-eminent e-commerce company. The apparent asymmetry of expected capex and expected benefits from first- and last-mile investments -- express companies invest, BABA reaps the benefits -- suggests a pair trade: Long BABA against Short positions in China's express companies.

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's unusual trading channel pattern may be coming to an end and short selling declines.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> broke a falling triangle pattern and now trades above near term support levels.  The company's dual listing announcement and large buyback program are near-term positives.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> has broken out of its rounding bottom pattern with a positive earnings announcement.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-ruyi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3296:1" rel="noopener">China Ruyi Holdings (136 HK)</a> has broken out from its triangle pattern.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's unusual trading channel pattern may be coming to an end and short selling declines.
Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) broke a falling triangle pattern and now trades above near term support levels.  The company's dual listing announcement and large buyback program are near-term positives.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK) has broken out of its rounding bottom pattern with a positive earnings announcement.  China Ruyi Holdings (136 HK) has broken out from its triangle pattern.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 24)

<ul>
<li>Along with its fiscal 2024 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.</li>
<li>If the conversion is completed by the end of August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> capped at 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

We do not forecast any constituent changes for the HSTECH index in December. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

Alibaba will be in included in Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading today. Volumes should be higher than usual as mainland investors...

Brian Freitas

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

As China's largest smart locker company Hive Box prepares for a potential IPO in Hong Kong, we are resurfacing this old insight to help readers...

Daniel Hellberg

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 24)

GDS continues to rally after its breakout from its 2 year downtrend. Huatai maintained a BUY on the stock and raised its target price to HK$27.49...

David Mudd

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

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