Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The final datapoints for the December Hang Seng Indices rebalances were recorded today, slightly altering the initially expected weights and flows. </li>
<li>The expected flows have slightly increased since the initial estimates on 15 then 17 November.</li>
<li>Across all three indices, I see a net total of roughly HK$13.4bn a side to trade. </li>
</ul>


The final datapoints for the December Hang Seng Indices rebalances were recorded today, slightly altering the initially expected weights and flows. 
The expected flows have slightly increased since the initial estimates on 15 then 17 November.
Across all three indices, I see a net total of roughly HK$13.4bn a side to trade. 


Hang Seng Indices (HSI, HSCEI, HS Tech) Recapping the Recaps - A Bit More To Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> will have the largest inflows due to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> inclusion while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> will have the largest outflow due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> capping.</li>
<li>There will be passive selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> for yet another rebalance due to capping of the stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.

Li Auto (2015 HK) will have the largest inflows due to the HSI inclusion while Xiaomi (1810 HK) will have the largest outflow due to HSTECH capping.
There will be passive selling in HSBC Holdings (5 HK) for yet another rebalance due to capping of the stock in the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2023)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> holdings.</li>
<li>Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  </li>
<li>CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. </li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK) stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) holdings.
Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  
CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. 


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Hive Box Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a smart locker specialist</li>
<li>The firms play in different geographies, making apples:apples comps tough</li>
<li>In the absence of better comps, comparing Hive Box to InPost still useful</li>
</ul>


In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a smart locker specialist
The firms play in different geographies, making apples:apples comps tough
In the absence of better comps, comparing Hive Box to InPost still useful


Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China &amp; HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus the benchmark.</li>
<li>In the six months leading up to recent stimulus measures, another 5.4% of funds fully exited their China &amp; HK exposure.</li>
<li>Tencent and Alibaba are well below their 2020 highs, while AIA Group ownership moved lower and China Construction Bank continues its long-term decline</li>
</ul>


China &amp; HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus the benchmark.
In the six months leading up to recent stimulus measures, another 5.4% of funds fully exited their China &amp; HK exposure.
Tencent and Alibaba are well below their 2020 highs, while AIA Group ownership moved lower and China Construction Bank continues its long-term decline


China:  Record Bearish Positioning Ahead of Stimulus

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Hang Seng Indices (HSI, HSCEI, HS Tech) Recapping the Recaps - A Bit More To Trade

The Hang Seng Index Final rebalance flows were set based on today's closing price. The actual rebalance will be Friday at the close. Expected flows...

Travis Lundy

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2023)

The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across...

Brian Freitas

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally

China Dongxiang trades at an 82.1% discount to NAV despite the recent HK and China rally, with potential for a positive bottom-line swing in FY25...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a publicly-traded smart locker and e-comm fulfillment specialist based in Poland. It's not a perfect...

Tracking Traffic

China: Record Bearish Positioning Ahead of Stimulus

China & HK allocations among Global funds have hit new lows, with 25.5% of funds avoiding the region entirely and a record 79.6% underweight versus...

Steven Holden

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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