Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The market responded favourably to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)</a>'s 29 Jul results despite the company's downward revision as the stock rose 3.1% the next day. While the 1Q OP decline of -47.5% YoY was less severe than -57.4% 1H decline the company was guiding for, Fanuc nevertheless revised down full year guidance by -5.8% at the OP level and revenue guidance by -2.4%. Fanuc's OP guidance is typically so conservative that it can safely be ignored but we believe the revenue guidance downgrade is significant.</p>

The market responded favourably to Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)'s 29 Jul results despite the company's downward revision as the stock rose 3.1% the next day. While the 1Q OP decline of -47.5% YoY was less severe than -57.4% 1H decline the company was guiding for, Fanuc nevertheless revised down full year guidance by -5.8% at the OP level and revenue guidance by -2.4%. Fanuc's OP guidance is typically so conservative that it can safely be ignored but we believe the revenue guidance downgrade is significant.

Fanuc: Recovery Strength or Lack Thereof Is a Risk. 2.6x PB for a Single Digit Roe Is Too

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/809/original/2019-08-04_13-24-01.png?1564892655" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94809"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SOUTHBOUND</strong> - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings is still heading lower. Since July 22nd, 1,216 or 32% of companies have reported results and 292 forecast revisions have been announced. The Japan Analytics Results &amp; Revision Score reached a new 28-month low on Friday of 1.43, a decline of 78% from the current cycle peak of 6.50 on 16th November 2017. The correlation between the Score and the Market Capitalisation of listed companies excluding REITs is 0.77, and the Score is more of a leading or co-incident than lagging indicator.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/810/original/2019-08-04_13-32-15.png?1564893149" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94810"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/812/original/2019-08-04_13-39-03.png?1564893556" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94812"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>BREAKDOWN</strong> - The Results &amp; Revision Score is a weighted sum of three components, the Results Score, the Annual Forecast/Revision Score and the Interim Forecast/Revision Score, with the last of these only being applicable for nine months of each year. The two Forecast/Revision Scores are, as would be expected., leading indicators for the Results Score. The current quarter's Results Scor decline already exceeds the previous quarter's more-benign decline which also saw an increase in the Annual Forecast/Revision Score as the majority of companies 'rolled' their forecast ahead by one year. In contrast, the forecasts for the Interim period which for most companies ends next month were the most pessimistic since April 2016 and the mostly first-quarter results are confirming the early caution. In addition, full-year forecasts are also being downgraded and are at the lowest level for three months.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/094/816/original/2019-08-04_13-44-46.png?1564893904" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="94816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>YEN DRIVER</strong> - The key driver of the Results &amp; Revision Score has been the year-on-year change in the US dollar/Yen exchange rate lagged by six months. The major turning points in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22826" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22826:1" rel="noopener">JUSDJPY CURNCY</a> over the last twelve years highlighted above line up well with changes in the direction of earnings momentum as represented by the Results &amp; Revision Score. With the Yen having reverted to a period of strengthening in recent weeks, the trend in the Score will be downwards over the next six months, which will be reflected in due course by the market.    </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we update our Market Composite Results Timeline, Sector and Peer Group Results &amp; Revision Scores, Sector Performance and Valuation and look at the best and worst large-cap individual company results over the last two weeks. In the meantime, we lighten the mood with a classic Allman Brother track featuring the incomparable Dicky Betts.</p></div><center></center><div class="content-caption">The Allman Brothers Band - Southbound - 1/16/1982 - University Of Florida Bandshell</div>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSOUTHBOUND - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings is still heading lower. Since July 22nd, 1,216 or 32% of companies have reported results and 292 forecast revisions have been announced. The Japan Analytics Results &amp; Revision Score reached a new 28-month low on Friday of 1.43, a decline of 78% from the current cycle peak of 6.50 on 16th November 2017. The correlation between the Score and the Market Capitalisation of listed companies excluding REITs is 0.77, and the Score is more of a leading or co-incident than lagging indicator.Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKDOWN - The Results &amp; Revision Score is a weighted sum of three components, the Results Score, the Annual Forecast/Revision Score and the Interim Forecast/Revision Score, with the last of these only being applicable for nine months of each year. The two Forecast/Revision Scores are, as would be expected., leading indicators for the Results Score. The current quarter's Results Scor decline already exceeds the previous quarter's more-benign decline which also saw an increase in the Annual Forecast/Revision Score as the majority of companies 'rolled' their forecast ahead by one year. In contrast, the forecasts for the Interim period which for most companies ends next month were the most pessimistic since April 2016 and the mostly first-quarter results are confirming the early caution. In addition, full-year forecasts are also being downgraded and are at the lowest level for three months.Source: Japan AnalyticsYEN DRIVER - The key driver of the Results &amp; Revision Score has been the year-on-year change in the US dollar/Yen exchange rate lagged by six months. The major turning points in JUSDJPY CURNCY over the last twelve years highlighted above line up well with changes in the direction of earnings momentum as represented by the Results &amp; Revision Score. With the Yen having reverted to a period of strengthening in recent weeks, the trend in the Score will be downwards over the next six months, which will be reflected in due course by the market.    In the DETAIL section below, we update our Market Composite Results Timeline, Sector and Peer Group Results &amp; Revision Scores, Sector Performance and Valuation and look at the best and worst large-cap individual company results over the last two weeks. In the meantime, we lighten the mood with a classic Allman Brother track featuring the incomparable Dicky Betts.The Allman Brothers Band - Southbound - 1/16/1982 - University Of Florida Bandshell

🇯🇵 Japan • Summer Results & Revisions First Cut - Southbound

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>The Japan Exchange Group (JPX) publishes a daily report that details the short sell activity by market participants. JPX aggregates broker short sell reports and discloses information such as the short sale positions and the names of the investors whose short sale positions reach 0.5% of the outstanding shares. Here is some information on short positions for the week ended 26 July.</p><p>The short notional in the market for the week ended 26 July is US$24.25bn with the largest short names being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>. Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Amazia Inc, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a> while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirait-holdings-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7034:1">Mirait Holdings (1417 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenkoku-hosho-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5537:1">Zenkoku Hosho (7164 JP)</a>.</p><p>The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1">Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandai-namco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1">Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1">Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-gro" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1">Mitsubishi Ufj Financial (8306 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a>.  </p>

The Japan Exchange Group (JPX) publishes a daily report that details the short sell activity by market participants. JPX aggregates broker short sell reports and discloses information such as the short sale positions and the names of the investors whose short sale positions reach 0.5% of the outstanding shares. Here is some information on short positions for the week ended 26 July.The short notional in the market for the week ended 26 July is US$24.25bn with the largest short names being Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP). Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Amazia Inc, Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP) and Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP), Mirait Holdings (1417 JP), Katakura Industries (3001 JP) and Zenkoku Hosho (7164 JP).The largest increases in short notional over the week were NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Fanuc Corp (6954 JP) and Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP) while shorts were covered in Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP), Mitsubishi Ufj Financial (8306 JP) and Sbi Holdings (8473 JP).  

Short Sell Reporting - Insights for the Week Ended July 26

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/001/original/2019-07-13_16-16-31.png?1563002212" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93001"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/005/original/2019-07-13_16-25-24.png?1563002742" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93005"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT</strong> - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/020/original/2019-07-14_06-28-16.png?1563053334" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93020"></figure><p></p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/024/original/2019-07-14_06-45-29.png?1563054338" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93024"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>VALUE TRADED RATIO </strong>- The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. </p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/025/original/2019-07-14_06-47-40.png?1563054585" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93025"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TORAKU INDEX </strong>- Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  </p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/026/original/2019-07-14_06-54-51.png?1563054906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93026"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>VOLUME SCORE TIMELINE</strong> - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The <strong>Retail</strong> and <strong>Restaurant</strong> Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. <strong>REITs</strong> remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the <strong>Information Technology</strong> and <strong>Internet</strong> Sectors are the '<em>tema-du-jour</em>' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are <strong>Metals</strong>, <strong>Banks</strong>, <strong>Utilities</strong><strong>Transportation</strong>,  and <strong>Multi-Industry</strong>.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/028/original/2019-07-14_07-31-40.png?1563057109" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93028"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION</strong> - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The <strong>Retail</strong> Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">, and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>. <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong> has suffered from weakness in component stocks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a> (-38% over one year), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata (6981 JP)</a> (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/murata-mfg-6981-jp-buy-on-decline-for-the-long-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30919" rel="noopener">(Buy on Decline for the Long Term</a>), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu (6301 JP)</a> have weighed on the <strong>Machinery</strong> Sector.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/031/original/2019-07-14_07-44-47.png?1563057897" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93031"></figure><p></p></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR SCORE MATRIX - </strong>Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are <strong>Contrarian Sel</strong>l, <strong>Contrarian Buy</strong>, <strong>Unrequited Growth</strong>, and <strong>Ex-Growth</strong> suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a>, Other Commerical Products (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a>, and Commercial Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit 6098 JP).</a> We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-sumitomo-metal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)</a>) </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">Obic (4684 JP)</a>.</p></div>


Source: Japan Analytics
MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVALUE TRADED RATIO - The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. 
 Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU INDEX - Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The Retail and Restaurant Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. REITs remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the Information Technology and Internet Sectors are the 'tema-du-jour' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are Metals, Banks, UtilitiesTransportation,  and Multi-Industry.
 Source: Japan Analytics3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The Retail Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores Welcia (3141 JP) and Tsuruha (3391 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), and Lawson (2651 JP). Electrical Equipment has suffered from weakness in component stocks Alps Alpine (6770 JP) (-38% over one year), Murata (6981 JP) (see Scott Foster's (Buy on Decline for the Long Term), and Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), while SMC (6273 JP), Fanuc (6954 JP), and Komatsu (6301 JP) have weighed on the Machinery Sector.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (OBIC (4684 JP), Other Commerical Products (Hoya Corp (7741 JP), and Commercial Services (Recruit 6098 JP). We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)) In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Welcia (3141 JP), Daiseki (9793 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), Pola Orbis (4927 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP), and Obic (4684 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/091/044/original/2019-06-23_11-15-52.png?1561256166" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="91044"></figure><p></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/091/045/original/2019-06-23_11-21-43.png?1561256515" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="91045"></figure><p></p>
<p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>RESILIENCE</strong> - Japanese equities have risen by 2.9% since the low of 4th June. In US dollar terms, the gain is 3.7%. Over the last two weeks, the gains are 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in almost perfect 'sync' with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. This month's divergence is unusual, and it remains to be seen when, how, and if the gap will be closed. The cross rate is within ¥2.6 of the high points of the last two years. Barring any military sparring in the Middle East, any weakness in the Yen from current levels will be supportive of the equity market.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/091/046/original/2019-06-23_11-51-30.png?1561258305" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="91046"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/091/047/original/2019-06-23_11-51-58.png?1561258329" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="91047"></figure><p></p><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RSI &amp; TORAKU </strong>- Both the 5-day Relative Strength Index and the 25-Day Toraku Index have recovered to the middle of their normal range and suggest quieter days ahead, currency moves permitting.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/091/065/original/2019-06-23_12-26-08.png?1561260389" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="91065"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>ABSOLUTE BREADTH</strong> - Our Absolute Breadth Index reached a new low for the year on Friday, but is well above the 0.5 level that would indicate a buying opportunity.</p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/091/069/original/2019-06-23_12-30-22.png?1561260645" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="91069"></figure><p></p> Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>VOLUME SCORE TIMELINE</strong> - Volumes remains concentrated in the <strong>Internet</strong>, <strong>Information Technology</strong>, <strong>REITs</strong>, <strong>Restaurants</strong>, and <strong>Energy</strong> Sectors, the <strong>Materials</strong>, <strong>Transportation</strong>, <strong>Utilities</strong>, and <strong>Multi-Industry</strong> Sectors are the volume laggards.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/091/100/original/2019-06-23_13-32-38.png?1561264370" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="91100"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>VALUATION</strong> - The quarterly results for companies with January, April, July and October year-ends are now in, but have had little impact on the 'aggregates'. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is 14.4, and the Forecast PER is 13.9 - attractive relative to recent history but not at bargain-basement levels. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/091/102/original/2019-06-23_13-44-36.png?1561265086" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="91102"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES</strong> - Our scoring of aggregate Results and Revisions has also not seen any significant changes, although the trends are still downwards, especially for Interim Revisions.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation, Company Results &amp; Revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1" rel="noopener">Pigeon (7956 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanbio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1" rel="noopener">SanBio (4592 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ain-pharmaciez-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9313:1" rel="noopener">Ain (9627 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-seal-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8723:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Seal (7864 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 (8848 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">Obic (4684 JP)</a>.​ ​ ​ ​​ ​ ​ ​</p></div>




Source: Japan Analytics
RESILIENCE - Japanese equities have risen by 2.9% since the low of 4th June. In US dollar terms, the gain is 3.7%. Over the last two weeks, the gains are 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in almost perfect 'sync' with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. This month's divergence is unusual, and it remains to be seen when, how, and if the gap will be closed. The cross rate is within ¥2.6 of the high points of the last two years. Barring any military sparring in the Middle East, any weakness in the Yen from current levels will be supportive of the equity market.Source: Japan AnalyticsRSI &amp; TORAKU - Both the 5-day Relative Strength Index and the 25-Day Toraku Index have recovered to the middle of their normal range and suggest quieter days ahead, currency moves permitting.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsABSOLUTE BREADTH - Our Absolute Breadth Index reached a new low for the year on Friday, but is well above the 0.5 level that would indicate a buying opportunity.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - Volumes remains concentrated in the Internet, Information Technology, REITs, Restaurants, and Energy Sectors, the Materials, Transportation, Utilities, and Multi-Industry Sectors are the volume laggards.Source: Japan AnalyticsVALUATION - The quarterly results for companies with January, April, July and October year-ends are now in, but have had little impact on the 'aggregates'. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is 14.4, and the Forecast PER is 13.9 - attractive relative to recent history but not at bargain-basement levels. Source: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - Our scoring of aggregate Results and Revisions has also not seen any significant changes, although the trends are still downwards, especially for Interim Revisions.In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation, Company Results &amp; Revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Kobe Bussan (3038 JP), Tsuruha (3391 JP), Pigeon (7956 JP), SanBio (4592 JP), Ain (9627 JP), Fuji Seal (7864 JP), Fanuc (6954 JP), Leopalace21 (8848 JP), and Obic (4684 JP).​ ​ ​ ​​ ​ ​ ​

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Resilience

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)

Fanuc: Recovery Strength or Lack Thereof Is a Risk. 2.6x PB for a Single Digit Roe Is Too

The market responded favourably to Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)'s 29 Jul results despite the company's downward revision as the stock rose 3.1% the next...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 Japan • Summer Results & Revisions First Cut - Southbound

SOUTHBOUND - Two weeks into the announcements of the June quarter-end period, it is clear that the momentum of Japanese listed corporate earnings...

Campbell Gunn

Short Sell Reporting - Insights for the Week Ended July 26

The Japan Exchange Group (JPX) publishes a daily report that details the short sell activity by market participants. JPX aggregates broker short...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Resilience

RESILIENCE - Japanese equities have risen by 2.9% since the low of 4th June. In US dollar terms, the gain is 3.7%. Over the last two weeks, the...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)