Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 29th January - 6954▲ 7751► 6701▲ 4751▲ 6645▼6857▼

Robotics Earnings: Nabtesco and HDS Results Strong; Still No Reason to Own Fanuc

Fanuc: Profitability Deterioration and Share Price Rebound Open Up Significant Downside

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The market responded favourably to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)</a>'s 29 Jul results despite the company's downward revision as the stock rose 3.1% the next day. While the 1Q OP decline of -47.5% YoY was less severe than -57.4% 1H decline the company was guiding for, Fanuc nevertheless revised down full year guidance by -5.8% at the OP level and revenue guidance by -2.4%. Fanuc's OP guidance is typically so conservative that it can safely be ignored but we believe the revenue guidance downgrade is significant.</p>

The market responded favourably to Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)'s 29 Jul results despite the company's downward revision as the stock rose 3.1% the next day. While the 1Q OP decline of -47.5% YoY was less severe than -57.4% 1H decline the company was guiding for, Fanuc nevertheless revised down full year guidance by -5.8% at the OP level and revenue guidance by -2.4%. Fanuc's OP guidance is typically so conservative that it can safely be ignored but we believe the revenue guidance downgrade is significant.

Fanuc: Recovery Strength or Lack Thereof Is a Risk. 2.6x PB for a Single Digit Roe Is Too