Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mazda is up 17% after generating ¥844bn in revenue (consensus ¥833bn) and ¥20.9bn in OP (consensus ¥8.5bn) in 3Q. Guidance was revised to breakeven vs. consensus expectations for a ¥21.2bn loss. These were good results but the size of this move shows that sentiment had become far too negative on the company. We believe that will continue to change.

Mazda is up 17% after generating ¥844bn in revenue (consensus ¥833bn) and ¥20.9bn in OP (consensus ¥8.5bn) in 3Q. Guidance was revised to breakeven vs. consensus expectations for a ¥21.2bn loss. These were good results but the size of this move shows that sentiment had become far too negative on the company. We believe that will continue to change.

Mazda – To Chase or Not to Chase? Zoom Zoom Goes 2021 Conviction Pick

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

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Last September, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/brilliance-china-take-private-idUSKCN26F0FF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that state-controlled Liaoning Provincial Transportation Investment Group (LPTIG),  was planning to lead a consortium of Chinese investors to take PRC-automaker (&amp; BMW's main Chinese JV partner) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brilliance-china-automotive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:469:1" rel="noopener">Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK)</a> private. No deal transpired, allegedly due to "differences in valuations and financing difficulties".
A possible take-private transaction is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-faw-group-brilliance-china-m-a-exclus/exclusive-chinas-faw-considers-acquiring-bmw-partner-brilliance-for-about-7-2-billion-sources-idUSKBN2A30I5?il=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">again in the press</a>, this time from state-owned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faw-car-company-limited-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6497:1" rel="noopener">Faw Car Company Limited A (000800 CH)</a>, China’s No. 2 automaker.
Reportedly FAW will acquire the 30.43% stake held by Huachen Automotive Group, Liaoning’s state asset regulator, and 11.89% from LPTIG, triggering a Mandatory General Offer (MGO). The Offer price is rumoured to be HK$11/share, a 73% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The on-again, off-again, transaction comes amid HAG's <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3107281/parent-bmws-chinese-partner-defaults-bond-declining-car-sales" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inability</a> to repay a corporate bond that matured in October last year, culminating in the group <a href="https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2011210271/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entering</a> a bankruptcy restructuring the following month.
Brilliance has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0203/2021020300609.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it has no knowledge of the potential acquisition of shares and the privatisation of the company.
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As always, more below the fold.
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Concerning the title, one of the automotive world’s most distinctive features, that immediately identifies a BMW as being a BMW, is its ‘kidney grille’.
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Last September, Reuters reported that state-controlled Liaoning Provincial Transportation Investment Group (LPTIG),  was planning to lead a consortium of Chinese investors to take PRC-automaker (&amp; BMW's main Chinese JV partner) Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) private. No deal transpired, allegedly due to "differences in valuations and financing difficulties".
A possible take-private transaction is again in the press, this time from state-owned Faw Car Company Limited A (000800 CH), China’s No. 2 automaker.
Reportedly FAW will acquire the 30.43% stake held by Huachen Automotive Group, Liaoning’s state asset regulator, and 11.89% from LPTIG, triggering a Mandatory General Offer (MGO). The Offer price is rumoured to be HK$11/share, a 73% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The on-again, off-again, transaction comes amid HAG's inability to repay a corporate bond that matured in October last year, culminating in the group entering a bankruptcy restructuring the following month.
Brilliance has announced it has no knowledge of the potential acquisition of shares and the privatisation of the company.


As always, more below the fold.

Concerning the title, one of the automotive world’s most distinctive features, that immediately identifies a BMW as being a BMW, is its ‘kidney grille’.


Brilliance China (1114 HK): Grilling Kidneys

Travis Lundy

With one day to go until the annual, but this time/year delayed, TOPIX FFW Rebalance, which should see up to $32bn in two-way flow, it appears as if those who put on an anticipatory trade prior to the actual announcement on 8 January have started to exit. This is as I had warned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-delayed-topix-ffw-rebalance-32bn-to-trade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46902" rel="noopener">The Delayed TOPIX FFW Rebalance: $32bn To Trade</a>. More below the fold.

With one day to go until the annual, but this time/year delayed, TOPIX FFW Rebalance, which should see up to $32bn in two-way flow, it appears as if those who put on an anticipatory trade prior to the actual announcement on 8 January have started to exit. This is as I had warned in The Delayed TOPIX FFW Rebalance: $32bn To Trade. More below the fold. 

TOPIX FFW Rebal: Proceeding But Not Ahead of Plan

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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The car sales tax holiday has proven to be a critical element that improved car sales during MCO and it has just been extended until June 2021 which means the upward momentum should carry forward to Q1 2021 at least. The postal business, typically a drag to the group, benefited from the MCO through stronger e-commerce activities and online marketplace that contributed positively to the postal business, similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a> . 
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Compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/umw-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1700:1" rel="noopener">UMW Holdings (UMWH MK)</a> , DRB is trading at a 36.5% PBR discount, at a slight 8% PER premium, and a 26% EV/EBITDA discount.  DRB is trading at 4% PER discount, 89% PBR discount, and 56% EV/EBITDA discount, suggesting that it is relatively undervalued to the peers. Keep <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/drb-hicom-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19627:1" rel="noopener">DRB-Hicom Bhd (DRB MK)</a> in your portfolio or buy if you have not.


The car sales tax holiday has proven to be a critical element that improved car sales during MCO and it has just been extended until June 2021 which means the upward momentum should carry forward to Q1 2021 at least. The postal business, typically a drag to the group, benefited from the MCO through stronger e-commerce activities and online marketplace that contributed positively to the postal business, similar to Singapore Post (SPOST SP) . 

Compared to UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) , DRB is trading at a 36.5% PBR discount, at a slight 8% PER premium, and a 26% EV/EBITDA discount.  DRB is trading at 4% PER discount, 89% PBR discount, and 56% EV/EBITDA discount, suggesting that it is relatively undervalued to the peers. Keep DRB-Hicom Bhd (DRB MK) in your portfolio or buy if you have not. 

DRB HiCom (DRB): Tax Holiday and E-Commerce Beneficiaries

Last Week in Event SPACE: OFAC's Longer List, TOPIX Free Float, PCCW, Jardines, Toa, Guoco, Sansan

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Mazda – To Chase or Not to Chase? Zoom Zoom Goes 2021 Conviction Pick

Mazda is up 17% after delivering good but not stunning results, illustrating how excessively negative sentiment in the sector had become. Zoom Zoom

Mio Kato

Brilliance China (1114 HK): Grilling Kidneys

Brilliance is cheap with respect to peers, ostensibly held back by HAG's financial concerns. Brilliance is even cheaper when taking into account...

David Blennerhassett

TOPIX FFW Rebal: Proceeding But Not Ahead of Plan

TOPIX FFW Rebalance is 28 January at the close. $32 billion in two-way flows with some big names to trade. The Top 50 Buys have seen, on average,...

Travis Lundy

DRB HiCom (DRB): Tax Holiday and E-Commerce Beneficiaries

The car sales tax holiday improved car sales during MCO and it has just been extended until June 2021 The postal business, benefited from the MCO...

Henry Soediarko

Last Week in Event SPACE: OFAC's Longer List, TOPIX Free Float, PCCW, Jardines, Toa, Guoco, Sansan

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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