Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: On 23 July 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> surged 14.3%, driven by macro factors tied to tariffs. This Insight examines how that sharp move affected the stock’s volatility surface.</li>
<li>
Key Observations: Implied volatility spiked to extreme percentiles, with two-week IV hitting the 99th–100th percentile. Skew dynamics show otm calls becoming historically rich relative to puts.</li>
<li>
Opportunity: Elevated implied volatility and historically flat skew present an attractive setup for a zero-cost option strategy.</li>
</ul>



Context: On 23 July 2025, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) surged 14.3%, driven by macro factors tied to tariffs. This Insight examines how that sharp move affected the stock’s volatility surface.

Key Observations: Implied volatility spiked to extreme percentiles, with two-week IV hitting the 99th–100th percentile. Skew dynamics show otm calls becoming historically rich relative to puts.

Opportunity: Elevated implied volatility and historically flat skew present an attractive setup for a zero-cost option strategy.


Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Toyota Motor Corporation's latest financial results present a mixed bag of data for investors to consider.</li><li>For the fiscal year ending March 2025, the company reported a robust operating income of JPY 4.8 trillion, primarily driven by revised pricing strategies and value chain profit expansion.</li><li>However, this figure represents a decline from the previous year's results, which were buoyed by one-time favorable effects.</li></ul>

Toyota Motor Corporation's latest financial results present a mixed bag of data for investors to consider.For the fiscal year ending March 2025, the company reported a robust operating income of JPY 4.8 trillion, primarily driven by revised pricing strategies and value chain profit expansion.However, this figure represents a decline from the previous year's results, which were buoyed by one-time favorable effects.

Toyota Motor Corporation: An Insight Into Its Recent Electrification Efforts

<ul>
<li>
Context: After three consecutive down weeks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> has entered oversold territory, triggering a potential upside signal in quantitative models.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: With signs pointing to a short-term reversal, a Bull Call Spread strategy offers high return potential (~12x premium) with limited upfront cost. </li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking tactical exposure. Details Provided.</li>
</ul>



Context: After three consecutive down weeks, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has entered oversold territory, triggering a potential upside signal in quantitative models.

Trade Idea: With signs pointing to a short-term reversal, a Bull Call Spread strategy offers high return potential (~12x premium) with limited upfront cost. 

Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking tactical exposure. Details Provided.


Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>We continue our coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor</a>. In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-motor-7203-jp-outlook-amid-uncertainty-over-toyota-industries-privatization-bid" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last insight</a> we flagged overbought conditions and a likely pullback—Toyota declined as expected. Our model now flashes an “upcoming rebound” signal.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> has been falling for 3 weeks. At the end of last week our WEEKLY model flagged the stock as "very oversold": 83% probability of WEEKLY reversal.</li>
<li>We cannot say if this rebound will become a rally, at the moment: uncertainty around the stock persists, and this particular pattern usually sees more selling, after the bounce.
</li>
</ul>


We continue our coverage of Toyota Motor. In our last insight we flagged overbought conditions and a likely pullback—Toyota declined as expected. Our model now flashes an “upcoming rebound” signal.


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has been falling for 3 weeks. At the end of last week our WEEKLY model flagged the stock as "very oversold": 83% probability of WEEKLY reversal.
We cannot say if this rebound will become a rally, at the moment: uncertainty around the stock persists, and this particular pattern usually sees more selling, after the bounce.



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook: Uncertainty Persists, But Rebound Likely

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul><li>Uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on the company profits and production line.</li><li>Hedge through long outright puts or put spread                                      </li><li>Benefit: Limited risk by investing premium</li></ul>

Uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on the company profits and production line.Hedge through long outright puts or put spread                                      Benefit: Limited risk by investing premium

Hedge Long TOYOTA (7203 JP) With OPTIONS!

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

An opportunity emerges after volatility shifts to extreme levels. Find out how implied volatility reacted to the recent rally and explore a zero...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota Motor Corporation: An Insight Into Its Recent Electrification Efforts

Toyota Motor Corporation's latest financial results present a mixed bag of data for investors to consider. For the fiscal year ending March 2025,...

Baptista Research

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Oversold: Your High-Potential Options Strategy

Toyota Motor (7203 JP // TM US) may be poised for a short-term rebound, making a Bull Call Spread strategy an attractive tactical trade idea with...

Gaudenz Schneider