'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/679/original/2020-05-01_05-31-11.png?1588278692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130679"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>COMFORT BLANKET</strong> - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  </p><p><strong>COUNTERMEASURES</strong> - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-</p><ul>
<li>The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.</li>
<li>Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.</li>
</ul><hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/680/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2039%2027.jpeg?1588280828" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130680"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/681/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2027%2003.jpeg?1588280873" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130681"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/683/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2040%2007.jpeg?1588281553" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130683"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/682/original/File%202020-05-01%203%2031%2028.jpeg?1588280903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130682"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • ourworldindata.org</div><p><strong>MAYDAY</strong> - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/130/684/original/2020-05-01_06-41-23.png?1588282906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="130684"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>30TH APRIL -</strong> In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> being the most prominent in the former camp.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCOMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the reality of what The Economist describes as the '90% Economy' unfolds in the daily earnings and forecasts revisions announced by Japanese companies. In some cases, such as Nidec (6594 JP), the picture is distorted by the strength in overseas demand in February as Chinese competition was put on hold and the rest of North Asia took up the resulting 'slack'. As we have noted before, the first and second-order impacts of COVID-19 will not be revealed until the August and November results, when we expect both of our Scores to be closer to their 2009 troughs. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserves trillion-dollar rescue package will keep upward pressure on the yen as the Bank of Japan struggles to keep up.  COUNTERMEASURES - Japan's revised supplementary budget was approved yesterday, allowing for interest-free loans to businesses, tax deferrals and cash handouts to all households. The COVID crisis has also prompted Japan to engage in a bout of 'magical thinking' allowing for the rolling back or revision of many long-cherished traditions:-
The start of the academic year will now probably be pushed back to September this year - discussions have started to make this shift permanent, finally bringing Japan into line with the rest of the world.
Hanko personal and corporate seals that are required to certify documents may now also be going the way of the dodo as the Keidanren business organisation has acknowledged that they 'do not meet the digital age'.
Source • ourworldindata.orgMAYDAY - Although Japan's daily case count has fallen to around 200, the medical experts advising the Japanese government are suggesting that this level will require an extension to the states of emergency (SOEs) currently operating in all prefectures beyond May 6th. Hospitals are still working at above-normal capacity, and patients are still being turned away from many hospitals. Alarmingly Japan's current eight death-doubling-days count is amongst the worst in the world. Also, excess mortality data for Tokyo suggests that, in March, there were over 60 excess deaths a week not attributed to COVID-19. The expectation is that the SOEs will be extended to Sunday, May 31st and that schools will not reopen until September. In most European countries extensive testing is one of the requisites for easing lockdown restrictions, and the UK is now ramping up testing capacity in anticipation. Japan's woeful record on testing will become a factor by the end of May. Japan's case fatality rate of 3% suggests that the number of cases could be ten times the official number.Source • Japan Analytics30TH APRIL - In the DETAIL below, we shall review Thursday's large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the 132 results was 51:10:71; and for the 83 revisions or initial forecasts, the split was 30:7:43. Of the 98 companies announcing annual results, only 43 made forecasts for the current year. The ratio of dividend cuts to increases was 5:10 with Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) being the most prominent in the former camp.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The short notional in the market for the data released 14 April is US$34.07bn (up by US$78mm excluding FX movements and ETFs) with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>.  </p></div><div><p>Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aiming-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27325:1">Aiming Inc (3911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitta-gelatin-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1481:1">Nitta Gelatin (4977 JP)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1"></a>while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitta-gelatin-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1481:1">Nitta Gelatin (4977 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>.  </p></div><div><p>The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5380:1">Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>.   </p></div><div><p>Sectorally, short positions increased in Industrials (US$369m) and Communication Services (US$345m) while shorts decreased in Consumer Discretionary (US$259m) and Consumer Staples (US$255m). </p></div>

The short notional in the market for the data released 14 April is US$34.07bn (up by US$78mm excluding FX movements and ETFs) with the largest short positions in Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Softbank Corp (9434 JP).  Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Aruhi Corp (7198 JP), Aiming Inc (3911 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP) and Nitta Gelatin (4977 JP) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Nitta Gelatin (4977 JP), Aruhi Corp (7198 JP), Katakura Industries (3001 JP), Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP).  The largest increases in short notional over the week were Softbank Corp (9434 JP), Nidec Corp (6594 JP), Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) and Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP) while shorts were covered in Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP).   Sectorally, short positions increased in Industrials (US$369m) and Communication Services (US$345m) while shorts decreased in Consumer Discretionary (US$259m) and Consumer Staples (US$255m). 

Market Goes Short Industrials; Covers Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples Names

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Event-Driven

<p>With a relatively full slate of large value takeovers in Developed Asia in the past year - often by parents but also by buyout funds - and the availability of significant credit to finance such takeovers, this Smartkarma Original insight looks at what constitutes an attractive target for takeover, and seeks to construct a framework for screening and filtering companies for further study. </p>
<p>The filtering is conducted across two basic measures which seek to answer two basic questions:</p>
<ol>
<li>What might supply look like?</li>
<li>What might demand look like?</li>
</ol>
<p>The first basic problem with creating such filters is that on the Supply side, using databases to determine whether a controlling shareholder <em>wants</em> to sell is almost a lost cause from the beginning. But the exercise throws up some interesting case studies, and it is important to understand why such screening could lead to interesting results. </p>
<p>On the demand side, it is a difficult and complicated exercise because financial data moves around, shifting through time and relative price because competitors also shift in time and price. A clear example of a company which might have been "relatively" attractive vs peers a month ago might not be after the market ructions at the end of February 2020 when this was written. Prices were, of course, lower, which means that a good screening process is dynamic, both in relative and absolute measures. It is also somewhat difficult to create a one-size-fits-all screen for attractive targets because in certain countries, certain industries (telecom, airlines, social infrastructure, defence) are covered by foreign ownership limits, other industries (banks, brokers, insurers) rarely see leveraged buyouts, and takeovers in other industries (Chinese homebuilders) are, for lack of a better word, simply off the table at certain times.</p>
<p>In addition, there are lots of ways in which companies might present themselves as attractive targets. If someone controls a company, and wants to sell it cheaply, there are lots of potential buyers who will fall all over themselves to get in line to buy it. But companies can be attractive targets because of the potential for changing profit metrics and multiples through restructuring, asset reorganisation, industry reorganisation, or simply waiting for the cycle to change. </p>
<p>Using valuation metrics with a cutoff line can be challenging because common multiples such as PER, PCFR, PBR, EV/EBITDA may ignore significant value available from longer-term securities holdings, non-operating real estate assets which are not managed in optimal fashion, etc. </p>
<p>In short, screening can only go so far. But we try.</p>
<p>At the end, we take a brief look at 10 companies from Developed Asia which show up as a result of our screening efforts. The resulting list is dominated by Japanese companies because some of the companies which show up from other countries fit the "no-go" categories above (airlines, financial companies, defence technology subject to foreign ownership limits, Chinese homebuilders subject to skepticism, etc.). Some are also clearly Emerging Asia businesses with Developed Asia listings. Screening for Emerging Asia got a few companies which are high on anyone's target list, including one which saw an unsolicited takeover approach earlier this week (end-Feb 2020), and another which has been in acquisition mode for years. </p>
<p>We find the thinking process and screening technology has thrown up some <em>previously less-than-obvious</em> candidates which deserve further work.</p>

With a relatively full slate of large value takeovers in Developed Asia in the past year - often by parents but also by buyout funds - and the availability of significant credit to finance such takeovers, this Smartkarma Original insight looks at what constitutes an attractive target for takeover, and seeks to construct a framework for screening and filtering companies for further study. 
The filtering is conducted across two basic measures which seek to answer two basic questions:

What might supply look like?
What might demand look like?

The first basic problem with creating such filters is that on the Supply side, using databases to determine whether a controlling shareholder wants to sell is almost a lost cause from the beginning. But the exercise throws up some interesting case studies, and it is important to understand why such screening could lead to interesting results. 
On the demand side, it is a difficult and complicated exercise because financial data moves around, shifting through time and relative price because competitors also shift in time and price. A clear example of a company which might have been "relatively" attractive vs peers a month ago might not be after the market ructions at the end of February 2020 when this was written. Prices were, of course, lower, which means that a good screening process is dynamic, both in relative and absolute measures. It is also somewhat difficult to create a one-size-fits-all screen for attractive targets because in certain countries, certain industries (telecom, airlines, social infrastructure, defence) are covered by foreign ownership limits, other industries (banks, brokers, insurers) rarely see leveraged buyouts, and takeovers in other industries (Chinese homebuilders) are, for lack of a better word, simply off the table at certain times.
In addition, there are lots of ways in which companies might present themselves as attractive targets. If someone controls a company, and wants to sell it cheaply, there are lots of potential buyers who will fall all over themselves to get in line to buy it. But companies can be attractive targets because of the potential for changing profit metrics and multiples through restructuring, asset reorganisation, industry reorganisation, or simply waiting for the cycle to change. 
Using valuation metrics with a cutoff line can be challenging because common multiples such as PER, PCFR, PBR, EV/EBITDA may ignore significant value available from longer-term securities holdings, non-operating real estate assets which are not managed in optimal fashion, etc. 
In short, screening can only go so far. But we try.
At the end, we take a brief look at 10 companies from Developed Asia which show up as a result of our screening efforts. The resulting list is dominated by Japanese companies because some of the companies which show up from other countries fit the "no-go" categories above (airlines, financial companies, defence technology subject to foreign ownership limits, Chinese homebuilders subject to skepticism, etc.). Some are also clearly Emerging Asia businesses with Developed Asia listings. Screening for Emerging Asia got a few companies which are high on anyone's target list, including one which saw an unsolicited takeover approach earlier this week (end-Feb 2020), and another which has been in acquisition mode for years. 
We find the thinking process and screening technology has thrown up some previously less-than-obvious candidates which deserve further work.

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •</strong></p></div><div><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS </strong>- The <strong>Relative Price Score</strong> (<strong>RPS</strong>) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, '<strong>Overbought'</strong> and '<strong>Oversold</strong>' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer interesting trading opportunities.</p></div><p>The data for all 3,871 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into <strong>Relative Price Scores</strong> for our 328 <strong>Peer Groups</strong> and 30 <strong>Sectors.</strong> The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at <strong>+4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> for Companies, <strong>+3</strong> &amp; <strong>-1.5</strong> for Peer Groups and <strong>+2</strong> and <strong>-1</strong> for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over one million historical observations.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/120/245/original/2020-02-27_08-50-00.png?1582762915" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="120245"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>With a few exceptions, mean reversion from these extreme outlying states occurs typically in weeks or months. The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 <strong>Technology</strong> 'bubble' to the <strong>REIT</strong> and<strong> Real Estate</strong> peak of 2013/14, the <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <strong>FB&amp;T</strong> market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater 'persistence' in the Oversold zone, particularly recently for <strong>Energy</strong>, <strong>Banks</strong> and <strong>Utilities</strong> Sectors.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/120/400/original/2020-02-28_07-33-54.png?1582842856" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="120400"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/120/402/original/2020-02-28_07-34-58.png?1582842919" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="120402"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CONSUMER SERVICES</strong> - The most recent case of Sector mean reversion is in <strong>Consumer Services</strong>, driven primarily by the performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, a business that is now seeing a direct impact from Covid-19 with the closure of Tokyo Disneyland until March 15th announced today. This news is prompting some short-covering in the Friday afternoon session; however, at 31X EV/OP, there is still 63% downside to a residual income-based no-growth valuation. We expect both the Sector's and company's RPS to retrace the gains of the last two years.  </p><div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector and Peer Group trends, over the last three months and adds some stock-specific comments. A separate Insight to follow in the next few days will cover the Relative Price Scores for individual companies.</p></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer interesting trading opportunities.The data for all 3,871 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over one million historical observations.Source • Japan AnalyticsWith a few exceptions, mean reversion from these extreme outlying states occurs typically in weeks or months. The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater 'persistence' in the Oversold zone, particularly recently for Energy, Banks and Utilities Sectors.Source • Japan AnalyticsCONSUMER SERVICES - The most recent case of Sector mean reversion is in Consumer Services, driven primarily by the performance of Oriental Land (4661 JP), a business that is now seeing a direct impact from Covid-19 with the closure of Tokyo Disneyland until March 15th announced today. This news is prompting some short-covering in the Friday afternoon session; however, at 31X EV/OP, there is still 63% downside to a residual income-based no-growth valuation. We expect both the Sector's and company's RPS to retrace the gains of the last two years.  In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector and Peer Group trends, over the last three months and adds some stock-specific comments. A separate Insight to follow in the next few days will cover the Relative Price Scores for individual companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • March Sector & Peer Group Relative Price Scores -

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/170/original/2020-01-28_05-14-43.png?1580156104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115170"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS</strong> - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.</p><p><strong>SCORING METHODOLOGY</strong> - <strong>Results Scores</strong> are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined<strong> Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS)</strong> is the average of the<strong> Results Score</strong> and the<strong> Forecasts/Revision Score</strong>. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/171/original/2020-01-28_05-28-10.png?1580156919" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115171"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet Office</div><p><strong>TRENDING LOWER</strong> - Although the<strong> Results Score</strong> has been moving sideways since November, the <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the <strong>Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator</strong> which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.</strong></p></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.SCORING METHODOLOGY - Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet OfficeTRENDING LOWER - Although the Results Score has been moving sideways since November, the Forecast/Revision Score continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 30th April - D1Life, Toto, JR-W, CTC, Murata, Nidec, Mercari

COMFORT BLANKET - As the politically-motivated Central Banks smother equity markets with the comfort blanket of the 'mother of all QEs', the...

Campbell Gunn

Market Goes Short Industrials; Covers Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples Names

The short notional in the market for the data released 14 April is US$34.07bn (up by US$78mm excluding FX movements and ETFs) with the largest...

Brian Freitas

A Potential Asian LBO Screening System

With a relatively full slate of large value takeovers in Developed Asia in the past year - often by parents but also by buyout funds - and the...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • March Sector & Peer Group Relative Price Scores -

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

TRACKING RESULTS & REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)